Anarchy in the Endzone

Super Bowl XLIV - NFL Playoff Predictions and Picks

2010-02-06T22:53:00.000-08:00

The New Orleans Saints are one victory away from justifying my preseason prediction that they would win the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately for them (and my reputation), the Indianapolis Colts stand in the way of their potential coronation.

I have to admit that I'm a bit conflicted about picking a winner for this game. My heart tells me to take the Saints, but my head says the Colts are the better team.

Judging by what I've seen and read the past couple weeks, I think my personal waffling is a bit of microcosm of what the rest of the nation is currently feeling. New Orleans is clearly the sentimental favorite, while the consensus of the so-called experts is pretty solidly that Indianapolis will prevail.

When you really get down to it and examine both teams, there's little mystery to why this is the case.

In what has been a decidedly unpredictable season, the one consistent factor this year has been the Colts' and Saints' positions atop the league standings.

From the very outset, right down to Super Bowl Sunday, both teams have been staring at everyone else through the rear-view mirror. That's pretty much where the similarities end, though.

In fact, this game and its contrasting styles represents a Hollywood cliche come to life. It's the puncher vs. the boxer, the half court offense vs. the fast break press, the home run hitter vs the veteran pitcher, etc.

On the one hand, the Indianapolis has carved up opposing teams with a surgical precision. Much of the credit for that is due to the expertise of Peyton Manning.

Precision is the calling card of the Colts. They don't call a lot of fancy plays, but the plays they do run are executed with almost mechanical perfection.

On offense, they are much like a pass-based version of the Green Bay offense under Vince Lombardi. The other team knows what is coming, they just can't do anything about it.

Their defense is like the other side of the same coin. Rarely is a player out of position and their timing is exquisite. Indy's D just doesn't leave many openings for opponents to exploit.

The polar opposite of the Colts' coldly efficient play is the Saints' all-out daredevil style of attack. The Saints throw everything, including the kitchen sink, at the team lined up on the other side of the field.

New Orleans' forte is the big play and they are never short on tricks designed to obscure what might be coming next. Misdirections on offense and forced turnovers on defense combine to keep opponents off balance on both sides of the ball.

In spite of the many differences, there are several important similarities between these two teams.

Both have solid offensive lines that have kept their quarterbacks upright all season long. The Colts led the league in least sacks allowed, while the Saints ranked fourth.

Whatever advantage that gives Indianapolis could be mitigated by the probable absence of Dwight Freeney, who was the Colts top pass rusher this season.

Another key similarity is the amount of playmakers these teams have on offense. The reason that nobody has been able to shut these two teams down is that there are so many options to go to.

One final key that I think is being overlooked in this game is the importance of the run game.

The Saints have been dangerous all season long when their three pronged attack of Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mike Bell have been on their game.

Less evident though, has been how much they have struggled against teams that have shut own their run game. Without an effective ground game, they are less able to attack down the field.

While it was largely an afterthought during the season, Indy has really stepped it up on the ground during the playoffs. If they can play solid run defense against New Orleans and pick up the key yards on offense, they might run away with the game.

In the end, I think this has the potential to be one of the best Super Bowls ever and it's got shootout written all over it.

My Picks

Take the Points - I would not be surprised at all (and very happy) if the Saints won it outright, but at the very least it should be a close game.
Bet Your House on the Over - The total is listed as 57 points. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees could both score 29 points in their sleep.
Put Your Money on "Tails" for the Opening Coin Toss - I always pick tails.

Rex Ryan's Jets vs Peyton Manning's Colts - NFL Playoff Picks: AFC Championship

2010-01-22T23:24:00.000-08:00

"Sometimes when you hit the quarterback the whole team feels it" - Rex Ryan

Those would have to be the most telling words spoken during the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

The Chargers certainly felt Philip Rivers' pain as they were pounded into submission and the relentless pressure applied by the Jets ended their Super Bowl hopes.

In order to win this game New York had to turn it into a brawl. They did just that, but there was nothing sweet or scientific about Rex Ryan's game plan.

Anybody who has ever laced up the gloves knows that, while it's the haymakers that make the headlines, the body blows are what set up that eventual kodak moment.

In much the same way, New York used an aggressive attacking defense and a steady run game on offense to wear San Diego down and knock them off of their game. Shonn Greene's 53 yard, fourth quarter TD run served as the final knockout punch.

So can the Jets keep their improbable (or not, since I picked them to play in the AFCC in the preseason) playoff run going against the Colts?

Indianapolis, for their part, had little trouble handling Baltimore in the Divisional round. One of the Raven's few highlights consisted of an eight minute opening drive that allowed them to tie the game at three.

It was all downhill from there for them, thanks in no small part to Baltimore's four turnovers. Ed Reed even managed to fumble the ball during an interception return in the third quarter.

While Peyton Manning played his typical solid, efficient game (30 of 44 for 246 yds), the Colts defense stepped up against the Ravens. Specifically the run defense, which was considered a weakness coming in came up strong, holding Ravens runners to just 87 yards.

Any pretense that Baltimore had of beating Indianapolis was put to rest when Manning connected with Reggie Wayne for his second touchdown just before halftime.

Keys to the Game

The striking thing about this game is the similarities it represents to both teams' divisional round matchups. Indy has a lot in common with San Diego, while New York has much in common with Baltimore.

Both the Colts and Chargers have a high scoring passing offense led by a MVP caliber quarterback that makes up for a anemic running game. Also, both of them rank toward the bottom of the league in run defense, but are pretty solid against the pass. The ability to strike quick through the air is the strength that defines these teams.

At the same time, both the Jets and Ravens have used an efficient running game to compensate for less effective passing games led by quarterbacks that have at times struggled. In addition, each of them have top ranked defenses, which has allowed them to slow the game down and keep the pressure off their offense.

In essence, both of these teams represent better versions of their respective opponents from the previous week.

In order for the Jets to keep the miracle run going, they will need to dictate the game with their defense and control the ball by running effectively, so that Mark Sanchez doesn't have to win the game. They'll need to pressure Manning and hope Darrelle Ravis and company can force a couple turnovers on defense.

Conversely, the Colts will need to dictate the game with their offense, scoring quickly and avoiding turnovers in order to build an early lead and force the Jets to play catchup. That's probably their best strategy to eliminate the advantage the Jets have with their running game.

If the game turns into a battle between Sanchez and Manning it will be over by halftime just like last week against the Ravens. However if the Jets can turn this into a low scoring, grind it out type of game they stand a decent chance of pulling off another upset.

Indianapolis fans have just barely gotten over the Colts pulling their starters during the week 15 game against the Jets instead of going for an undefeated season. They will really lose their minds if the Jets, who wouldn't have made the playoffs if they had lost that game, came back to beat them in the playoffs.

New York, on the other hand, is playing with house money. They've got nothing to lose at this point, because they were never supposed to be here in the first place. That lack of respect and underestimation is what has fueled their unexpected success.

The Pick

While I doubt the Jets can count on three missed field goals like in the Chargers game or the two misses they benefited from against the Bengals, that's the sort of blind luck that has kept them alive when they seemingly have had no business winning.

Now they are on the cusp of being this year's version of that team that gets hot at the right time and rides that momentum all the way to the Super Bowl.

A lot of people (unjustly) gave them little chance to beat the Bengals, pretty much nobody (including me) expected them to beat the Chargers, and you'd be pretty hard pressed to make a logical case for them to beat the Colts.

However, take the eight points the bookies are giving, because the Jets won't need them. Rex Ryan's defense is going to carry New York all the way to the big game this season.

NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

2010-01-14T00:11:00.000-08:00

This is admittedly somewhat of an unscientific study, but I'm pretty sure me and this guy were the only ones outside of Arizona's fans who picked the Cardinals to beat the Packers last week.

I'm also fairly certain that I'm the only person on the planet who didn't think the big shootout between Arizona and Green Bay was the most amazingly great game ever played in the history of the National Football League.

Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner are undoubtedly great quarterbacks, but the score of that game had a lot more to do with neither team's defense bothering to even pretend they were going to cover receivers or attempt a tackle, once they caught the ball.

My immediate impression wasn't what an exciting game this is, but more along the lines of: if the winner of this game plays like this next week, the Saints are going to be the first NFL team to score 100 points.

Partly because of the way they packed up their tents early at the end of the season, I actually thought New Orleans might be ripe for an upset. However, after last week this has turned into one of the hardest picks of the divisional round and I'm leaning toward the Saints again.

The Cardinals should have enough to make it a close game if they decide to play defense. If not though, it will be over fast.

The one game that did catch me off guard last week was the Ravens beating the Patriots. Not so much the fact that New England lost to Baltimore, but the way they lost. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the playoffs have a way of making the cream rise to the top.

You might be able to overcome injuries and positional weaknesses in the regular season, but once it gets down to the elite few those kind of things get exploited. The bad news for the Ravens is that next week is their turn to be the exploited.

It's probably going to be a somewhat close game, because the Colts have a habit of letting teams hang around until the fourth quarter, but I have very little doubt that Indy will come out on top.

Before last week's games, Rex Ryan countered all the talk of New York not deserving to be in the playoffs by declaring that the Jets should be favored to win the Super Bowl. Then they went out and beat a team they should have beat, which somehow made everyone take that boast seriously.

In spite of the fact that the Bengals limped into the playoffs and missed two easy field goals during the game, a lot of people are suddenly considering the Jets one of the top contenders based on that victory.

As much as I would actually like to see Rex Ryan succeed (I picked the Jets to go to the AFCC in my preseason predictions largely based on him being the coach), I just don't see New York getting past the Chargers. In fact, I think it is going to turn ugly.

Which brings us to the final game between Minnesota and Dallas. There are several keys to this game and I think in the end they all point to one team.

The most obvious of the them is the momentum of each team going into the game.

Much like the Saints, the Vikings stumbled down the stretch. They ended up losing three of their final five games and not looking at all good in those losses.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, come into this game playing as good as they have all season. They've managed to avoid a December collapse and instead have won four straight games including being the first team to beat the Saints.

Another factor that will come into play Sunday is the match-ups and, once again, I think those point mostly one direction.

Teams that have been able to get pressure up front have had success at disrupting the Vikings offense. Unlike early in the season, the offensive line hasn't been doing a very good job of keeping pass rushers off Brett Favre.

Minnesota's other glaring weakness all season has been their defensive backfield. Every game they have played against a top quarter back they have gotten gashed. I expect that trend to continue when Tony Romo, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten come to town.

Similarly, the absence of E.J. Henderson (who was injured in week 13) should leave some room for Felix Jones and Marion Barber to maneuver.

So in case you somehow haven't figured it out yet, I'm picking the Cowboys to come out on top in this game and I won't be at all shocked if they win big.

Last week, my record was 2-2 both straight up and against the spread, with the Jets and Cards each covering on the field and against the number as underdogs.

My Picks for the 2010 Divisional Playoff Games

Sat, Jan.16

1:30 PM (PST)

2:30 PM (MST)

3:30 PM (CST)

4:30 PM (EST)

Favorite

Underdog

Point Spread

Straight Up

Against the Spread

@New Orleans

Arizona

7.0

New Orleans

Arizona

Sat, Jan. 16

5:00 PM (PST)

6:00 PM (MST)

7:00 PM (CST)

8:00 PM (EST)

@Indianapolis

Baltimore

6.5

Indianapolis

Baltimore

Sun, Jan 17

10:00 AM (PST)

11:00 AM (MST)

12:00 PM (CST)

1:00 PM (EST)

@Minnesota

Dallas

3.0

Dallas

Sun, Jan 17

1:40 PM (PST)

2:40 PM (MST)

3:40 PM (CST)

4:40 PM (PST)

@San Diego

New York Jets

7.0

San Diego

NFL Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

2010-01-09T00:29:00.000-08:00

Before I give this weeks picks I have to say I'm pretty satisfied with my preseason predictions. In fact, I actually picked nine of the 12 playoff teams correctly.

In the AFC, I picked five of the six teams that made it into the playoffs. The one pick I missed was the Bengals. Instead, I had the Titans getting in.

In the NFC, I predicted four out the six eventual playoff teams. The two teams I missed were the Vikings and Cowboys. The two teams I miss-fired with were the Giants and Falcons.

This week's Wildcard matchups feature some of the most unique and bizarre scheduling anomalies to ever happen. Only 11 times in the history of the NFL has the same two teams that played in the final week of the season played each other again in the first round of the playoffs.

So, it's rather unprecedented for three of the four games this weekend to be direct rematches from last week. In fact, even that fourth game is a rematch between the Patriots and Ravens from Week four.

In spite of all the reruns on the Wildcard schedule, I think the games are going to play out quite differently than the first installments.

In Cincinnati, I believe the game against the Jets is going to be much closer than it was when they played in New York during Week17.

The Bengals didn't go all-out last time, but I still think the Jets are going to come out ahead, because the only real threat on the Bengals offense is Chad OchoCinco and Darrell Revis was able to shut him down.

Plus Cincinnati has lost three out of their last four games and their offense has looked bad doing it. If New York can minimize Mark Sanchez's mistakes by running the ball and playing solid defense, they'll get another win against Cincinnati.

In the Cowboys-Eagles matchup, just about everything in the world points to a third strike for Philadelphia. Not only did the Eagles get swept by the Cowboys during the regular season, but their offense completely out of sync in both games.

Since Philly's defense has been pretty average at best all season long, that doesn't really bode well for them. Basically, they've been winning by scoring almost thirty points a game and getting a couple key plays on defense. Neither one of those things has happened in either game against Dallas this year.

However, the one thing the Eagles do have on their side is history. Andy Reid is 7-0 in the opening round of the playoffs. Plus, as everyone knows, the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

So, I'm following the trends and going with the Eagles in a close game. Admittedly though, this is by far my shakiest pick of the week.

In New England, I think the Patriots just have a little too much for the Ravens. Baltimore was less than impressive down the stretch and is one of the weaker teams in the playoffs.

Of course the big question is how much the loss of Wes Welker will cost them. I think not having Welker will hurt their chances of getting to the Super Bowl (which weren't too great in the first place), but they have enough weapons on offense to beat the Ravens without him.

Finally in the Arizona-Green Bay game, I think everybody is putting way too much emphasis on the Packers blowout of the Cardinals last week.

The truth is that Arizona didn't play several of their key starters and Green Bay still had their starters in well into the third quarter, even though they had a comfortable lead.

Being that the Packers were beating up on the Cardinals' JV team, I just don't buy all the talk of the Arizona players being psychologically damaged by the game.

Everybody is picking the Packers as the "hot" team because they won seven of their last eight games. However when you actually look at who they played, the only good team they beat was Dallas and that was back when they weren't playing very well.

This is one game I could see going either way, but I like the Cardinals to pull it out at home.

My Picks for the 2010 Wildcard Playoff Games

Sat, Jan. 9

1:30 PM (PST)

2:30 PM (MST)

3:30 PM (CST)

4:30 PM (EST)

Favorite

Underdog

Point Spread

Straight Up

Against the Spread

@Cincinnati

New York Jets

2.5

New York Jets

Sat, Jan. 9

5:00 PM (PST)

6:00 PM (MST)

7:00 PM (CST)

8:00 PM (EST)

@Dallas

Philadelphia

3.5

Philadelphia

Sun, Jan 10

10:00 AM (PST)

11:00 AM (MST)

12:00 PM (CST)

1:00 PM (EST)

@New England

Baltimore

3.5

New England

Sun, Jan 10

1:40 PM (PST)

2:40 PM (MST)

3:40 PM (CST)

4:40 PM (PST)

@Arizona

Green Bay

Arizona

Spreading Anarchy to the Sports Blog Net (SBNet.com)

2010-01-08T16:02:00.000-08:00

In my continuing efforts to infect the internets with my opinions and commentary about the sports world, I have recently joined the Sports Blog Net.

As the name implies, SBNet.com is a syndication network for sports-related blogs. Much like I currently do on Bleacher Report, I'll be syndicating versions of my original content from this blog onto SBNet.com.

In addition, I'll continue to publish some extended versions of the syndicated articles on HubPages.

I read through the blogs on SBNet.com for a while before I actually applied to join and I do think they offer some good benefits, both for bloggers and for readers who are looking for informative blogs that cover the spots they are interested in.

Sports Blog Net's stated goal is to make all the blogs in the network as successful as possible. That includes increasing those blogs exposure to readers and, in the process, enabling the bloggers to earn more money through that increased traffic.

SBNet's desire is to promote small blogs to the masses, give new bloggers an avenue to get the exposure they are looking for, and give sports fans a destination that they want to visit everyday and where they can easily find the information they are looking for.

In order to advance those goals SBNet, invites its visitors to "Read, Write, Discover, and Build:"

They also encourage fellow bloggers to network with each other and cross link when appropriate, so there are several benefits for independent bloggers to come out of the wilderness and join the team.

And on a final note, in order to avoid any confusion, there is no fee of any sort required to join the Sports Blog Network, nor am I receiving any sort of incentive for promoting them.

NFL Week 17 - AFC Picks

2010-01-01T20:15:00.000-08:00

We're down to week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games.

Unlike previous weeks,  I'm going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

Read my NFC picks here. 

The AFC Playoff Picture

In the AFC, things are still pretty wide open with the exception of Indianapolis and San Diego which have clinched the first and second seeds, respectively.

The third and fourth seeds will go to the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals, although it hasn't quite been settled which team will get the higher seeding.

By beating the Houston Texans, the Patriots can lock up that No. 3 seed. There is some speculation that New England will rest their starters, but I fully expect them to go all out and beat Houston, who will end up with their traditional 8-8 record.

Here is where things get complicated. The final two spots are up for grabs between seven different teams which are currently 8-7 or 7-8. Really though, the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars (the 7-8 teams) actually have no chance.

Of the final five teams, the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets just need to win and they will be the wild card teams. It's conceivable that the Oakland Raiders could pull off another upset, but I expect the Ravens to win their game.

As I stated previously, I expect the Patriots to eliminate the Texans in their game. Which also means that the Bengals will have nothing to play for by the time they play the Jets in the Sunday Night game.

So more likely than not, the big prime time game is going to essentially be a glorified exhibition game. Just like last week against the Colts, the Jets will get handed a victory and the final wild card spot in the process.

In the unlikely event that the Ravens and Jets don't in, either the Broncos or Steelers will be in position to make it into the playoffs.

Based on the fact they are playing the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver would seem to have the advantage over Pittsburgh, who play Miami. However,I wouldn't be surprised at all if ither one or both of these teams ended up losing.

Other Games of Interest
 
 Some other games have the possibility to be interesting games even though they don't actually effect the playoff situation.

In Cleveland, the Browns will try to earn their third straight win by beating Jacksonville and are hoping that it will convince Mike Holmgren to bring  Eric Mangini back next year. They will, but he won't.

Also, Tennessee is going to beat Seattle to complete their improbable comeback from an 0-6 start to an 8-8 finish.

Last week, I ended up with a 9-7 record straight up and only 5-11 against the spread. Which leaves me with a season record of 147-90 straight up and 118-118-3 against the spread. 

Read my NFC picks here.
My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen AFC Games Sun, Jan 3
 10:00 AM (PST)
 11:00 AM (MST)
 12:00 PM (CST)
 1:00 PM (EST)
 Favorite
 Underdog
 Point Spread
 Straight Up
 Against the Spread
 @Buffalo
 Indianapolis
 8.0
 Buffalo
 Indianapolis
 @Cleveland
 Jacksonville
 1.5
 Cleveland
 Cleveland
 Pittsburgh
 @Miami
 3.0
 Miami
 Miami
 @Houston
 New England
 8.0
 New England
 New England
 Sun, Jan 3
 1:00 PM (PST)
 2:00 PM (MST)
 3:00 PM (CST)
 4:00 PM (EST)
 @Denver
 Kansas City
 13.0
 Denver
 Kansas City
 Baltimore
 Oakland
 10.5
 Baltimore
 Baltimore
 @San Diego
 Washington
 4.0
 San Diego
 San Diego
 Tennessee
 @Seattle
 4.0
 Tennessee
 Tennessee
 Sun, Jan 3
 5:20 PM (PST)
 6:20 PM (MST)
 7:20 PM (CST)
 8:20 PM (EST)
 @New York Jets
 Cincinnati
 10.0
 New York Jets
 Cincinnati

NFL Week 17 - NFC Picks

2010-01-01T16:47:00.000-08:00

We're down to week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games.

Unlike previous weeks,  I'm going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

Read my AFC picks here.

The NFC Playoff Picture

In the NFC, things are settled as to which teams are in, but there is still a pretty good amount of uncertainty about which teams will end up seeded where. 

Everything comes down to three games, which will decide the second through sixth seeds, with New Orleans having clinched the home-field advantage already. In addition, regardless of what happens, Green Bay will end up with the No. 5 seed.

The easiest of the NFL scenarios also involves what might potentially be the best game of the season featuring the Philadelphia Eagles against the Dallas Cowboys, who are arguably the two best teams in the NFC right now. 

It's not very complicated math here; the winner is the NFC East champion, the loser ends up the No. 6 seed. Additionally the Eagles will be the No. 2 seed if they win, while the Cowboys could end up anywhere from the No. 2 to No. 4 spot if they win, depending on whether the Vikings and Cardinals win their respective games. 

Most likely, a Dallas win means a rematch in the first round of the playoffs

This game can easily go either way and I could see either team winning. Having said that, I'm picking the Eagles here. Dallas beat them the first time in week nine, but it was one of the worst games for the Eagles offense and they were still adjusting to being without Brian Westbrook. 

Not only is Westbrook back, but they have had time to adjust to life without him and his presence is an asset rather than a necessity at this point. Philadelphia has scored 31 points a game during their six game win streak, which began two weeks after that first game.

There are, however, two things that could point to trouble for the Eagles. 

One is their defense's propensity to forget about tackling in favor of going for the big play. While this has resulted in a fair amount of turnovers during the season, it has also turned what should be a routine play into a big play for the other team many times.

Another potential problem for the Eagles is the loss of starting center Jamaal Jackson for the season last week against Denver. This could potentially be a big loss, since the Cowboys had four sacks last time they played.

The other big game in the NFC involves the Arizona Cardinals vs. the Green Bay Packers in Arizona. 

For the Cardinals winning this game could put them into position to be the No. 2 seed (if the Vikings and Eagles both lose)  or the No. 3 seed (if the Eagles win and Vikings lose). 

If the Packers should win, more than likely the Cards and Pack will play again in the first round of the playoffs. However, if the Eagles and Giants also win, they would instead play the Vikings for the third time this season. 

Obviously, another rematch against Brett Favre's new team would be huge, but in order for that to happen the New York Giants would have to upset the Minnesota Vikings. 

With the way the Vikings have played the past month, that's not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, if the Giants weren't such a mess right now, I would pick them to beat the Vikings.

I still wouldn't be surprised if New York did win, but they have been less than impressive lately. You just never know which team is going to show up anymore.

Last week they couldn't even keep the game competitive against the Carolina Panthers when they needed a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I don't have a lot of faith that things are going to go much different this week.

Other Games of Interest

Some other games have the possibility to be interesting games even though they don't actually effect the playoff situation. 

New Orleans plays Carolina in a game that essentially means nothing, but could have some significance in light of the fact that the Saints have lost two straight games.

There is some speculation that they will rest their starters, but I expect them to play all out to try to go into the playoffs on a positive note. 

After losing to Tampa Bay last week, I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them lose, however I think the difference in the game will be the loss of Steve Smith for the Panthers last week.

The other game that has some interest in spite of not involving the playoffs is the Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The reason it is relevant is because the Falcons will be trying to finish with a winning record in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. Luckily for them, they are playing the Buccaneers and should be able to pull it off.

Last week, I ended up with a 9-7 record straight up and only 5-11 against the spread. Which leaves me with a season record of 147-90 straight up and 118-118-3 against the spread. 

Read my AFC picks here.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen NFC Games

Sun, Jan 3	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Chicago	@Detroit	3.0	Chicago	Chicago
San Francisco	@St. Louis	7.0	San Francisco	St. Louis
@Minnesota	New York Giants	9.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
Atlanta	@Tampa Bay	2.5	Atlanta	Atlanta
@Carolina	New Orleans	7.5	New Orleans	Carolina
Sun, Jan 3	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Arizona	Green Bay	3.5	Arizona	Green Bay
@San Diego	Washington	4.0	San Diego	San Diego
Tennessee	@Seattle	4.0	Tennessee	Tennessee

NFL Week 16 Picks

2009-12-25T16:55:00.000-08:00

I'm usually not a morning person, but things got off to a fast start with my straight up picks last week .

In the early games, I won seven out of eight. Which means I hit eight out of the first 10 games counting the Thursday and Saturday games.

Things didn't quite go as well in the afternoon however and I ended up finishing with a respectable, but not spectacular, 10-6 weekly record picking straight up.

It was also a bit rougher against the spread. For the week, I had a 7-8-1 record against the bookies.

It actually could have been better. I thought about switching my picks for the Dallas and Carolina games, because I had a feeling they might be close.

Unfortunately, I backed out and it cost me, since both of them not only covered, but won as underdogs. I guess that just goes to show you that betting isn't for the faint of heart.

As long as we are talking about those upsets last week , what significance will they have on this week's games? In the grand scheme of things, probably not much.

For the Saints, if anything, it is a good thing they lost. With the exception of the Patriots game they have been coasting since week seven. This will probably serve s a badly needed wake up call going into the playoffs.

As is typical for the Cowboys, they came up big in a game few people expected them to win. The other thing they typically do is lose a big game they are supposed to easily win right after that kind of win.

That and the fact there is a huge chance for them to be looking ahead to the Eagles game next week is why I am picking them to lose to the Redskins this week.

It's admittedly hard to put a lot of faith in Washington after the way they laid down against the Giants last week, but this pick is based more on the Cowboys than the Redskins.

In regards to the Vikings, all you can really say is what a difference a few weeks makes. At this time four weeks ago, it was a foregone conclusion that the Vikings had the No. two seed sewn up and were a legitimate threat to grab the home field advantage away from the Saints.

Many people were even arguing that the Vikings were the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.

Since then, Minnesota has lost two out of three games and word has leaked out about internal strife between Brett Favre, who has begun looking very ordinary, and Coach Brad Childress. At this point, they are even in danger of losing the No. two seed to the Eagles.

Things may get very interesting for the Vikings even though I'm pretty hard pressed to envision them losing to Chicago and the turnover machine they mortgaged their future to get from Denver (Jay Cutler).

My other big upset pick this week is the Titans over the Chargers. By all rights the Chargers should win this game, but I just have one of those feelings about the Titans.

In fact, there are going to have to be a lot of stars aligning just right over the next two weeks, but I think somehow, someway Tennessee is going to make it into the playoffs. Call it a Christmas miracle, but I believe in them.

For the year, my record now stands at 138-83 straight up and 113-107-3 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Sixteen NFL Games

Fri, Dec 25	4:30 PM (PST)	5:30 PM (MST)	6:30 PM (CST)	7:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Tennessee	San Diego	3.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Sun, Dec 27	10:00AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@Atlanta	Buffalo	9.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
@Cincinnati	Kansas City	13.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@Cleveland	Oakland	3.5	Cleveland	Oakland
@Green Bay	Seattle	14.0	Green Bay	Green Bay
@Miami	Houston	3.0	Houston	Houston
@New England	Jacksonville	8.0	New England	New England
@New Orleans	Tampa Bay	14.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
@New York Giants	Carolina	7.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
@Pittsburgh	Baltimore	2.5	Pittsburgh	Baltimore
Sun, Dec 27	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Arizona	St. Louis	14.0	Arizona	Arizona
@San Francisco	Detroit	12.5	San Francisco	Detroit
@Indianapolis	New York Jets	5.5	Indianapolis	New York Jets
@Philadelphia	Denver	7.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Dec 27	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Dallas	@Washington	6.5	Washington	Washington
Mon, Dec 28	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
Minnesota	Chicago	7.0	Minnesota	Minnesota

DeSean Jackson is for the Eagles Everything TO Could Have Been and More

2009-12-23T19:25:00.000-08:00

For as long as Donovan Mcnabb has been in Philadelphia, the prevailing complaint among fans has been the lack of quality receivers.

Prior to last season, the lone exception to that rule was the 2004 season, when Terrell Owens came to town and the Eagles rode the Mcnabb/TO connection all the way to the Super Bowl.

Of course, the very next season, amid injuries to Mcnabb and the familiar antics by Owens, things quickly fell apart

Soon, TO was in Dallas and Eagles' backers were once again bemoaning a lack of talent among Philly's pass catching corps. Even Mcnabb himself complained on his personal blog during the offseason in 2008 about the lack of playmakers on the Eagles' offense.

Perhaps as a result of that, Philadelphia drafted DeSean Jackson in the second round three months later. And to slightly paraphrase a saying, the rest is quickly becoming history.

After a solid rookie season in which he showed plenty of potential, Jackson has fully blossomed into arguably the top playmaker in the league.

In the process, he is not only providing a glimpse into what could have been, but even threatening to totally eclipse that one great season Mcnabb and TO shared.

Their styles are clearly different. DeSean Jackson is a skinny speedster who can leave defenders holding nothing but air, having tied the record (8) for TD's of 50+ yards with two games remaining.

Terrell Owens is 5 inches taller (6'3") and fifty pounds heavier (224) than Jackson. While he is by no means slow, his ability to break tackles can turn a routine catch into a long gain.

However, outside of the obvious physical differences, there are plenty of similarities between the two. Not the least of which is their ability to score anytime they get the ball in their hands.

Beyond that, the stats Jackson has accumulated thus far in his breakout sophomore year are actually pretty comparable to TO's one full season in Philadelphia.

In 13 games this season, Jackson has caught 56 passes for 1,087 yards. In 2004, Owens collected 77 passes for an even 1,200 yards in 14 games. That translates to 83.6 ypg for Jackson vs. 85.7 ypg for TO.

The one sizable advantage that TO has in that comparison is that he scored 14 receiving TD's, while Jackson has found the end zone 8 times on passing plays.

However, when you factor in Jackson's rushing and punt return plays, the additional 3 touchdowns and 549 all purpose yards more than even things out.

More importantly, Jackson has already exceeded Owens' 21 game tenure in green. And unlike TO's now famous second season blow-up, which precipitated that short stay, DeSean Jackson has been a consummate teammate thus far.

Provided that doesn't change anytime soon, Jackson is just scratching the surface of what should be a long and epic career as an Eagle.

Meanwhile, Terrell Owens is in the process of fading way up in Buffalo, having squandered what easily could have been a great opportunity in Philadelphia.

It's only a matter of time before "who?" is more than just a sarcastic response to references to TO among Philly faithful. Mcnabb and the Eagles finally have a top playmaker.

NFL Week 15 Picks

2009-12-17T00:58:00.000-08:00

For the most part, I got back on track with a positive record last week. There were still a few teams that threw me off a bit, though.

While I did pick Cleveland to cover the spread against Pittsburgh, I figured the Steelers could manage a victory over the Browns, even as bad as they've been playing lately. I probably should have known better after their games against the Chiefs and Raiders.

And don't even get me started on the Monday night game against Arizona and San Francisco. Seems that every time I start to believe in the Cardinals they go out and lay an egg (no pun intended) against a team they should beat. Similarly, every time I start to write the 49ers off they go out an beat someone they have no business beating.

Of course, the undisputed kings of false promise are the Houston Texans. As has become the tradition in Houston, they are well on their way to an 8-8 season again this year.

But the bigger tradition for the Texans has been looking like a contender one week and looking horrible the next. which makes it practically impossible to pick their games. In fact, I don't know if there is a game this year that I have picked Houston to win that they haven't lost or a game they haven't won when I picked them to lose.

In other news, the Cowboys are in full meltdown mode, Desean Jackson is fast becoming the biggest offensive weapon in the NFL, and concussions don't have to be a part of the football.

Last Week, my record was 11-5 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. That brings my season record up to 128-78 straight up and 106-99-2 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fifteen NFL Games

Thu, Dec 17	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Indianapolis	@Jacksonville	3.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Sat, Dec 19	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New Orleans	Dallas	7.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
Sun, Dec 20	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New England	Buffalo	7.0	New England	Buffalo
Arizona	@Detroit	11.0	Arizona	Arizona
@Tennessee	Miami	4.0	@Tennessee	Miami
@Kansas City	Cleveland	1.5	Cleveland	Cleveland
Houston	@St. Louis	12.0	Houston	St. Louis
@New York Jets	Atlanta	6.0	New York Jets	Atlanta
@Philadelphia	San Francisco	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Baltimore	Chicago	10.5	Baltimore	Chicago
Sun, Dec 20	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Denver	Oakland	14.0	Denver	Denver
@San Diego	Cincinnati	6.5	San Diego	San Diego
@Pittsburgh	Green Bay	1.5	Green Bay	Green Bay
@Seattle	Tampa Bay	7.0	Seattle	Seattle
Sun, Dec 20	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Minnesota	@Carolina	9.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Mon, Dec 21	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
New York Giants	Washington	3.0	New York Giants	New York Giants

Is Troy Aikman Right that NFL Players Should Accept Concussions as a Part of Football?

2009-12-15T23:40:00.000-08:00

Last week, former Dallas Cowboys Hall of Famer Troy Aikman was quoted as saying,

"At some point I think players have to understand that there are certain risks that are involved, and if you decide that you want to go out and play football, then you've got to understand that part of that means you're going to break some bones and you may have some head injuries. But if you try to eliminate all of those things, then we're no longer playing football."

I don't disagree that players should be prepared for injuries and they have to accept that potential injuries are a part of the game. Nor do I disagree that you can't completely eliminate hard hits and the associated injuries from football without watering the game down and removing the elements that have made it so popular with fans.

Rather, the disagreement lies with the (unintentional*) implication this statement creates that head injuries are an unavoidable part of the game that players just have to accept in order to play. Fact is that there are several steps that could easily be taken to lessen the danger of sustaining a head injury without affecting the on-field play.

Dr. Gerald Maher, the team dentist for the New England Patriots, has designed a mouthpiece that dramatically reduces concussions caused by hits to the jaw. In fact, according to Mayer, this simple device has virtually eliminated concussions of that type for players who have worn them.

The NFL itself has stated that approximately 70% of concussions are caused by blows to the chin. Which is why it is especially puzzling that the NFL has continually rebuffed Dr. Maher's efforts to initiate a relationship with them.

Additionally, in spite of all the rules the NFL has concerning things as mundane as the type of socks a player can wear, they have steadfastly refused to mandate the use of concussion reducing helmets, despite their availability.

There are currently several helmets on the market that incorporate alternative designs in order to reduce factors which contribute to brain injuries. One such helmet, the Riddell Revolution has been proven in independent studies to lesson the risk of concussions by as much as 31%.

Both of these technical advances could potentially eliminate many of the concussions players suffer without eliminating any of the spectacular hits that fans pay to see each week, simply by reducing the amount of force that is transferred to players brains by those impacts.

More importantly in relation to Aikman's comment, are the non equipment-related issues surrounding concussion risk. Just the act of allowing a concussion to heal properly is a major key to avoiding further complications from head trauma. Additionally, it has been shown that returning too soon leaves players even more susceptible to another concussion.

However, the tape it up and get back in there mentality is common among football players. As a result, many players feel pressured to return before they are fully healed or even to not report concussions at all.

Just one example of this was when Brian Westbrook, of the Philadelphia Eagles, attempted to play less than two weeks after sustaining a major concussion against the Redskins. Westbrook subsequently suffered another concussion and has since said that he contemplated retirement, as a result.

As was evident from the negative reactions of their teammates when Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner skipped games after a concussion, that pressure to play at any cost is hardly an isolated situation within the NFL. One of the biggest stumbling blocks to addressing concussion-related issues is the prevalence of those attitudes among the league's players.

Such a mentality isn't so bad when you have a sprained ankle or a broken finger, but it's a lot different when you are talking about brain injuries. Limping in your old age doesn't even begin to compare to not being able to function because your brain is scrambled.

The onus is of course on the National Football League to ensure proper equipment is available and to compel players to use that equipment. A business that generates eight billion dollars a year marketing its players should have the foresight to ensure those players aren't taken out of the game prematurely by injuries that are preventable.

Obviously, the players also have a huge personal stake in preventing unnecessary injuries. Which is all the more reason Troy Aikman, who himself had to retire early because of repeated concussions, should know better than to perpetuate those attitudes which have prevented players from properly dealing with concussion symptoms.

*Aikman was discussing the over-regulation of hits on QB's, rather than concussions, specifically. As stated, this article relates to the implications of his statement, not the actual intent.

Why Another December Collapse is Almost Inevitable for the Dallas Cowboys

2009-12-12T17:22:00.000-08:00

The New York Giants upset of the Dallas Cowboys has once again prompted speculation that "America's Team" will fade down the stretch.

Of course, even before last week's loss there was reason to believe that things might get a bit cold for the Cowboys this winter.

Not only have they been very inconsistent this season, but they have put together a pretty solid record of folding up their tents as soon as the calendar reaches the final page in recent years.

Over the past decade, their December win-loss record is 15-29. So, it really wasn't (or shouldn't have been) a big shock that they lost to the Giants and looked terrible while doing it.

However, the bigger problem for the Cowboys (and for Wade Philips' job security) is that, with their schedule, even if they do play as well as they have played all season, they could very easily end up with a losing record in December again.

To close out the season, Dallas plays at home against San Diego, on the road against New Orleans and Washington, and finally back home against Philadelphia. Of those teams, the Redskins are the only ones not likely to be a playoff team.

It's not at all inconceivable that the Cowboys could upset the Saints, but more likely than not, Dallas will be yet another victim of the juggernaut from New Orleans.

Provided they play up to their potential, the other three games are ones that they should have a good chance of winning. However, San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won seven straight. Beating the Chargers will be a very tough task.

The dogfight doesn't end there, either. Washington has already proven that they can compete with Dallas during their one point loss two weeks ago and Philly has a three game win streak of their own. Plus, no game between NFC East rivals is ever a given, especially if the Eagles and Cowboys are playing for the division crown in their week 17 matchup.

With one December loss already on the books, Dallas will need to win a least three of their final four games to post a winning record for the month. That, combined with their one game lead over the Eagles, leaves the Cowboys without much room for error the remainder of the season.

Beyond that, even if the Cowboys survive December intact, they still have to face their lack of success in the playoffs since '96. Unless they post a couple wins in the playoffs, those same questions about their late season play will start anew.

The pressure is on for Dallas to finish strong this year and, unfortunately for the Cowboys, their remaining schedule has set them up to fail, yet again.

NFL Week Fourteen Picks

2009-12-10T17:42:00.000-08:00

I probably should have known better than to jinx myself by bringing up that I had been doing much better on my picks over the past three weeks.

Last week, I ended up taking a bit of step back on the picks. In fact, it might have been my worst week, both picking straight-up winners and picking against the spread. I even got heckled a little bit in the comments.

Of course, it didn't help that there were a bunch of upsets, and Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Oakland, aren't making things easy for me with their up-one-week, and down-the-next styles of play this season.

Plus, I fell for a sucker bet with the 1-15 trend during December. Trends that are that one-sided are usually pretty solid, but I guess, eventually, new trends have to start.

So, for the week, I ended up 7-9 straight up (SU), and an ugly 5-11 against the spread (ATS).

Ultimately, that leaves me with a record of 117-73 straight up, and 97-92-2 against the spread. (READ ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fourteen NFL Games

Thu, Dec 10	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Pittsburgh	@Cleveland	10.0	Pittsburgh	Cleveland
Sun, Dec 13	10:00 AM(PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New Orleans	@Atlanta	10.5	New Orleans	New Orleans
Green Bay	@Chicago	3.0	Green Bay	Chicago
@Indianapolis	Denver	7.0	Indianapolis	@Indianapolis
@Kansas City	Buffalo	0.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
@Minnesota	Cincinnati	6.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@New England	Carolina	13.5	New England	New England
New York Jets	@Tampa Bay	3.0	New York Jets	New York Jets
@Jacksonville	Miami	2.5	Jacksonville	Miami
@Baltimore	Detroit	13.0	Baltimore	Detroit
@Houston	Seattle	6.0	Seattle	Seatte
Sun, Dec 13	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Tennessee	St. Louis	13.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Washington	@Oakland	1.0	Washington	Washington
Dallas	San Diego	3.0	San Diego	San Diego
Sun, Dec 13	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (MST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New York Giants	Philadelphia	1.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Mon, Dec 14	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (M)	8:30 PM (EST)
Arizona	@San Francisco	3.0	Arizona	Arizona

Unlucky No. 13 for Brett Favre and the Vikings?

2009-12-06T21:54:00.000-08:00

Last year, the New York Jets followed up a victory over the New England Patriots with a convincing 34-13 victory over the previously undefeated Tennessee Titans. The Jets were flying high with many of the experts picking them to win the Super Bowl. At that point, it was universally accepted that New York was one of the top teams in the NFL and you would get few arguments from anyone, if you credited a certain ex-Packer QB with making the difference.

Then came week 13 against the Denver Broncos. This time it was the Jets who were beaten convincingly in a 34-17 loss, featuring two turnovers by Brett Favre. They would go on to lose four of their final five games and miss the playoffs entirely. What's more, during that stretch Favre threw nine interceptions and only two touchdowns.

So, is it just a coincidence that Brett Favre fell apart again in week 13 this season? Or is it a dark omen for the Vikings? Favre had been playing much better than he ever did in New York. In fact up to this point, he was having the best season of his career. However, this game would easily rank as one of the worst of his long career. He easily could have thrown four interceptions instead of the two he did throw. At times, he seemed completely confused and missed open receivers.

Undoubtedly, there is much blame to go around for this loss. Offensively, the lack of a running game and the uncharacteristically leaky pass protection that left Favre exposed to opposing pass rushers for the first time this season. On defense, a defensive backfield that has been suspect all season (I predicted this would be a big test for them during my picks) and a D-line that couldn't get any pressure for the first time this season. All of them played a part in this loss much like they played a part in Minnesota's great start.

Maybe this was just an off night or a case of the Vikings' weak schedule finally catching up to them. On the other hand, is this a case of deja vu (all over again) and that oh so unlucky number thirteen again? Do the Vikings have reason to develop a case of triskaidekaphobia?

NFL Week Thirteen Picks

2009-12-05T19:54:00.000-08:00

Now that the big Monday night clash between the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots is behind us, I think we are about done with matchups of the year at least until the playoffs start. We do still have some potential big games coming up though, such as this weeks Titans-Colts battle.

The Cowboys and Giants game is another that could get a bit heated. Also, the Seahawks-Niners game could be one of those ones like the Titans-Cardinals game that kinda sneaks up on you and turns into a classic.

So in other news, it must be getting close to the end of the season because my pick percentage is getting higher as the weeks go by. As I mentioned in my season preview, I tend to get much better at picking games as the season progresses. Last week I ended up with a 10-6 record straight up (winners) and a 10-5-1 record against the spread. So after twelve weeks, my overall record stands at 110-64 straight up and 92-80-2 against the spread. I'm finally starting to make some headway against the casinos. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Thirteen NFL Games

Sun, Dec. 6	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Philadelphia	@Atlanta	5.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Chicago	St. Louis	9.0	Chicago	St. Louis
@Cincinnati	Detroit	13.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@Indianapolis	Tennessee	6.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Denver	@Kansas City	4.5	Kansas City	Kansas City
New England	@Miami	5.5	New England	New England
@Pittsburgh	Oakland	14.5	Pittsburgh	Oakland
New Orleans	Washington	9.5	New Orleans	Washington
@Carolina	Tampa Bay	6.0	Carolina	Tampa Bay
@Jacksonville	Houston	0.0	Houston	Houston
Sun, Dec. 6	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
San Diego	@Cleveland	13.0	San Diego	San Diego
Dallas	@New York Giants	2.0	Dallas	Dallas
@Seattle	San Francisco	0.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
Sun, Dec 6	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@Arizona	Minnesota	3.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Mon, Dec 7	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
@Green Bay	Baltimore	3.0	Baltimore	Baltimore

Free Tickets to the UFL Championship

2009-11-27T00:50:00.000-08:00

I went to the United Football League game last week between the Las Vegas Locos and the New York Sentinels at the Silver Bowl A.K.A. Sam Boyd Stadium) on November 20th. Mostly I went because I figured it would be a good opportunity to get some nice action photos and the tickets were really cheap ($6), plus I live down the street from the Silver Bowl. Basically, I figured that for that price it wouldn't hurt even if it wasn't a good game, but it would be much of a risk to see a live football game.

I found out that there are some advantages to smaller stadiums. My seats were so close that I had a great chance to take pictures and I ended up taking almost two hundred photos (including the ones on this page). Beyond that, I actually enjoyed the game a lot. It wasn't exactly the most competitive game ever played. The Locos were up 38-0 nothing at one point and won 41-7. At least the right team did win, though. It probably would have sucked if the Vegas team was the one that got blown out. And this week should be a lot better game since it is the UFL championship game. The Las Vegas Locos will be taking on the Florida Tuskers (I don't know what that is either). The Locos are 4-2 this season with both of their losses coming against the Tuskers, who are undefeated.

In the long term, it looks like the UFL will be sticking around for a while. They recently announced that the 2010 season will definitely be happening and they are even looking to expand to at least six teams and possibly two more. Plus the season will be expanded to ten games after just six this season. So even though it isn't quite the NFL, it's probably as close as Las Vegas will ever get to an NFL franchise. I'd like to see this actually succeed if for no other reason so there is a live football game being played on a regular basis within biking distance of my house.

So, the moral to the story is you can get up to four free tickets to the UFL Championship game between the LV Locos and the Florida Tuskers on Nov. 27th at noon.

All you have to do is go to UNLVtickets.com, click on the promo code button and enter "UFLCHAMPS" then you can order up to four tickets absolutely free. You can even print the tickets off yourself at home. I'm hoping that a bunch of people will come to this championship game and the UFL will catch on next season and beyond.

NFL Week Twelve Picks

2009-11-26T14:52:00.000-08:00

That's more like it. The Saints finally woke up and spoiled my big upset pick of the year (by about 30 points), but I still did pretty good last week. There were a couple teams that threw me a bit, but I seriously doubt anybody foresaw the Steelers getting beat by the Chiefs or the Bengals losing to the Raiders. Unless you knew about Cincinnati's 0-10 record in Oakland. Even then, I woulda been a bit skeptical of the Raiders' chances. Outside of that and my sucker bet with the Buccaneers, there weren't any real shockers in week eleven.Once all was said and done, I ended up with a 11-5 record straight up (winners) and a 10-6 record against the spread (ATS). That leaves me with an overall season record of 100-58 straight up and 82-75-1 against the number. I'm finally starting to get some breathing room on my picks against the spread. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Twelve NFL Games

Thurs, Nov. 26	9:30 AM (PDT)	10:30 AM (MDT)	11:30 AM (CDT)	12:30 AM (EDT)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Green Bay	@Detroit	11.0	Green Bay	Green Bay
Thurs, Nov. 26	1:15 PM (PDT)	2:15 PM (MDT)	3:15 PM (CDT)	4:15 PM (EDT)
@Dallas	Oakland	13.5	Dallas	Dallas
Thurs, Nov. 26	5:20 PM (PDT)	6:20 PM (MDT)	7:20 PM (CDT)	8:20 PM (EDT)
New York Giants	@Denver	6.5	New York Giants	Denver
Sun, Nov. 29	10:00 AM (PDT)	11:00 AM (MDT)	12:00 PM (CDT)	1:00 PM (EDT)
@Atlanta	Tampa Bay	12.5	Atlanta	Tampa Bay
Miami	@Buffalo	3.0	Miami	Miami
@Cincinnati	Cleveland	14.0	Cincinnati	Cleveland
Seattle	@St. Louis	3.0	Seattle	Seattle
@New York Jets	Carolina	3.0	Carolina	Carolina
@Philadelphia	Washington	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Indianapolis	@Houston	3.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Sun, Nov. 29	1:00 PM (PDT)	2:00 PM (MDT)	3:00 PM (CDT)	4:00 PM (EDT)
@San Diego	Kansas City	13.5	San Diego	Kansas City
@San Francisco	Jacksonville	3.0	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
@Tennessee	Arizona	3.0	Arizona	Arizona
@Minnesota	Chicago	10.5	Minnesota	Minnesota
Sun, Nov. 29	5:20 PM (PDT)	6:20 PM (MDT)	7:20 PM (CDT)	8:20 PM (EDT)
@Baltimore	Pittsburgh	2.5	Baltimore	Baltimore
Mon, Nov. 30	5:30 PM (PDT)	6:30 PM (MDT)	7:30 PM (CDT	8:30 PM (EDT)
@New Orleans	New England	3.0	New England	New England

NFL Week Eleven Picks

2009-11-18T12:00:00.000-08:00

Week ten was pretty good for those watching at home, but it was kinda brutal for people picking games. I survived, but a lot of unpredictable stuff went down last week. Who figured Denver was going to drop the ball the way they did against Washington? Or that the Packers were going to put it to the Cowboys the way they did. And of course, topic number one on every channel and every front page is the Indy/Pats game and the big fourth down gamble. I even gave it it's own special section this week, because it's just that big of a topic. I'm also making my upset pick of the year this week.Not counting the Thursday night snorefest between San Francisco and Chicago, I ended up with an 8-6 record straight up (winners) and a 7-7 record against the spread. Which leaves me with an overall record of 89-53 straight up and 72-69-1 against the spread for the season. Which means I am still on the winning side against the casinos, which is what really matters. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Eleven NFL Games

Thurs, Nov. 19	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20PM (CST)	8:20PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Carolina	Miami	3.0	Carolina	Miami
Sun, Nov. 22	10:00 AM (MST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00PM (CST)	1:00PM (EST)
@Dallas	Washington	11.0	Dallas	Dallas
@Detroit	Cleveland	3.5	Detroit	Detroit
@Green Bay	San Francisco	6.5	San Francisco	San Francisco
Pittsburgh	@Kansas City	10.0	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
@Minnesota	Seattle	10.5	Minnesota	Minnesota
@New York Giants	Atlanta	6.5	New York Giants	New York Giants
New Orleans	@Tampa Bay	11.5	Tampa Bay!	Tampa Bay
@Jacksonville	Buffalo	9.0	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Indianapolis	Baltimore	1.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Sun, Nov. 22	1:00PM (PST)	2:00PM (MST)	3:00PM (CST)	4:00PM (EST)
Arizona	@St. Louis	9.0	Arizona	St. Louis
@Denver	San Diego	3.0	San Diego	San Diego
Cincinnati	@Oakland	9.5	Cincinnati	Oakland
@New England	New York Jets	10.5	New England	New England
Sun, Nov. 22	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Philadelphia	Chicago	3.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Mon, Nov. 23	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (CST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
@Houston	Tennessee	4.5	Houston	Tennessee

NFL Week Ten Picks

2009-11-14T12:00:00.000-08:00

I had several games last week that I was really on the fence about. However instead of going with my instincts and picking the upsets, I played it safe and went with the favorites and it really cost me. Overall, I took a pretty good beating. In fact, in straight up picks this was my worst week ever. Luckily, Pittsburgh came through with a victory in the Monday night game to keep me from posting a losing record picking the winners. Unfortunately, I wasn't quite so lucky against the spread. Instead, the Steelers covering the number cost me a winning record.So once all was said and done, I came out of it with a 7-6 record straight up (winners) and a 6-7 record against the spread. Which leaves with a season record of 81-47 straight up and 65-62-1 against the spread. Which means I'm still on the winning side against the line, although I don't have much of a cushion left anymore. I need a coupe good weeks to get me over that hump. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Ten NFL Games

Sun, Nov. 15	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Tennessee	Buffalo	6.5	Tennessee	Tennessee
New Orleans	@St. Louis	13.5	New Orleans	St. Louis
@Miami	Tampa Bay	10.0	Miami	Miami
@Minnesota	Detroit	16.5	Minnesota	Detroit
@New York Jets	Jacksonville	7.0	New York Jets	Jacksonville
@Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	7.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Denver	@Washington	3.5	Denver	Denver
Atlanta	@Carolina	1.5	Atlanta	Atlanta
Sun, Nov. 15	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Oakland	Kansas City	1.5	Kansas City	Kansas City
Dallas	@Green Bay	3.0	Dallas	Dallas
@Arizona	Seattle	8.5	Arizona	Seattle
@San Diego	Philadelphia	2.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Nov. 15	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@Indianapolis	New England	3.0	New England	New England
Mon, Nov. 16	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
Baltimore	@Cleveland	11.0	Baltimore	Baltimore

Teams with byes in week ten: Houston and the New York Giants

NFL Week Nine Picks

2009-11-07T12:00:00.000-08:00

I took a bit of a beating last week, especially against the spread. After I finally had decided that Denver was worthy of respect, they went out and got destroyed by Baltimore. Then the Saints made me want to jump off a roof by allowing Atlanta to kick a field goal in the waning minutes of their Monday night game while leading by eleven as ten point favorites. I had regained a little hope for the Jets after they put the hurt on the Raiders. I really should have known better than to have judged any team based on a victory over Oakland. I ended up playing opposites again finishing 8-5 straight up (winners) but only 5-8 against the spread. Which leaves me with and overall record of 74-41 straight up and 59-55-1 against the spread. So, I'm still in the positive against the casino, even if it is by a fairly slim margin at the moment. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Nine NFL Games

Sun, Nov. 8	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Atlanta	Washington	10.0	Atlanta	Atlanta
Chicago	Arizona	3.0	Chicago	Arizona
Baltimore	Cincinnati	3.0	Baltimore	Baltimore
Indianapolis	Houston	9.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
New England	Miami	10.5	New England	Miami
Green Bay	Tampa Bay	9.5	Green Bay	Green Bay
Jacksonville	Kansas City	6.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Sun, Nov. 8	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
New Orleans	Carolina	13.5	New Orleans	Carolina
Seattle	Detroit	10.0	Seattle	Seattle
New York Giants	San Diego	4.5	New York Giants	San Diego
San Francisco	Tennessee	4.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
Sun, Nov. 8	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Philadelphia	Dallas	3.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Mon, Nov. 9	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
Pittsburgh	Denver	3.0	Pittsburgh	Denver

Teams with byes in week nine: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis

NFL Week Eight Picks

2009-10-30T12:00:00.000-07:00

Last week there were finally some good underdogs for me to pick and they payed off, especially against the spread. Things would have been even better had Brett Favre not turned the ball over twice in the fourth quarter. Both of which were returned for touchdowns, while the Vikings were in scoring position. In a matter of a few series I went from an almost certain cover and a victory on the field to a straight up loss that failed to cover. Plus, I can't help think about what would have happened had the 49ers put Alex Smith in during the second quarter instead of waiting until after half time.What could have been but for a few circumstances.
I ended up 8-5 straight up (winners) and 10-2-1 against the spread. Which leaves with an overall record of 66-36 straight up and 54-47-1 against the spread for the season. I do hate the tie games, but I finally had a breakout week against the bookies and I'm now 7 games over .500 against the spread. And I usually do much better during the second half of the season, once I've got a good sense of how each team is playing. So, look out world, here I come and I'm on a roll now. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Eight NFL Games

Sun, Nov. 1	10:00 AM (PDT)	11:00 AM (MDT)	12:00 PM (CDT)	1:00 PM (EDT)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Houston	Buffalo	3.5	Houston	Buffalo
Chicago	Cleveland	13.0	Chicago	Chicago
Dallas	Seattle	9.5	Dallas	Dallas
Detroit	St. Louis	3.5	Detroit	Detroit
Indianapolis	San Francisco	12.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
New York Jets	Miami	3.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
New York Giants	Philadelphia	1.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Baltimore	Denver	3.5	Denver	Denver
Sun, Nov. 1	1:00 PM (PDT)	2:00 PM (MDT)	3:00 PM (CDT)	4:00 PM (EDT)
Tennessee	Jacksonville	3.0	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
San Diego	Oakland	16.5	San Diego	Oakland
Green Bay	Minnesota	3.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Arizona	Carolina	10.0	Arizona	Arizona
Mon, Nov. 2	5:30 PM (PDT)	6:30 PM (MDT)	7:30 PM (CDT)	8:30 PM (EDT)
New Orleans	Atlanta	10.0	New Orleans	New Orleans

Teams with byes in week eight: Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington - There is no Sunday Night Game this week

NFL Week Seven Picks

2009-10-24T12:00:00.000-07:00

Last week was another of those weeks where I didn't do particularly bad, but I certainly could have done better. The Eagles losing to the Raiders didn't help me at all, although I doubt anyone picked that to happen. Nor did the Jets losing to Buffalo or the Bengals dropping the ball against Houston. However I did take a lot of satisfaction in the fact that the Cardinals and Broncos both won outright as an underdog, which made no sense to me that either one of them was getting points in games I felt they should win. Also, Baltimore, the other team I picked to win as a dog, covered even though they came up short (wide left actually) on the field. I ended being 9-5 straight up and 7-7 against the spread. For the season, that leaves me with a record of 58-31 straight up and 44-45 (that sound you hear is me hitting my head against a wall) against the spread. It seems like all season long the point spreads have been enormous each week. I don't ever recall having so many lines that were more than a touchdown or even double digits every single week. Unfortunately, this week is no different in that respect. Fortunately for me however, there are several underdogs this week that I think have inflated numbers. The one thing that is making me real nervous though is that just about every team I like to win is a visiting team. It's hard to pick against almost every home team and feel good about it. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seven NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 25	10:00 AM (PDT)	11:00 AM (MDT)	12:00 PM (CDT)	1:00 PM (EDT)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Green Bay	Cleveland	9.0	Green Bay	Green Bay
San Diego	Kansas City	4.5	San Diego	San Diego
Indianapolis	St. Louis	13.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Pittsburgh	Minnesota	4.5	Minnesota	Minnesota
New England	Tampa Bay	14.5	New England	New England
Houston	San Francisco	3.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
Sun, Oct. 25	1:00 PM (PDT)	2:00 PM (MDT)	3:00 PM (CDT)	4:00 PM (EDT)
New York Jets	Oakland	6.0	New York Jets	New York Jets
Carolina	Buffalo	7.0	Carolina	Buffalo
Cincinnati	Chicago	1.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Dallas	Atlanta	4.0	Atlanta	Atlanta
New Orleans	Miami	6.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
Sun, Oct. 25	5:20 PM (PDT)	6:20 PM (MDT)	7:20 PM (CDT)	8:20 PM (EDT)
New York Giants	Arizona	7.0	New York Giants	Arizona
Mon, Oct. 26	5:30 PM (PDT)	6:30 PM (MDT)	7:30 PM (CDT)	8:30 PM (EDT)
Philadelphia	Washington	7.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia

Teams with byes in week seven: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee

NFL Week Six Picks

2009-10-17T12:00:00.000-07:00

Things started out well last week, but they didn't quite hold up as the games unfolded. In the early games, I won 5 out of 7 games both straight up and against the spread. But then during the late games things went terribly wrong. I ended up losing 2 of 6 both straight up against the spread in the late games. Things didn't get much better on Monday Night when Miami came back late and scored to cost me both straight up and against the number. So, my final tally for the week ended up being an identical 7-7 record both straight up, which is by far the worst I've done yet, and against the spread. Bringing my season record to 49-26 straight up and 37-38 against the spread. Which means I'm still fighting to get above .500 against the bookies. At least this week the spreads aren't quite as ridiculous as they have been the past couple weeks, although there are a few big ones. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Six NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 18	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Cincinnati	Houston	5.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Green Bay	Detroit	13.5	Green Bay	Detroit
Minnesota	Baltimore	3.0	Baltimore	Baltimore
New Orleans	New York Giants	3.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	14.0	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Carolina	Tampa Bay	3.5	Carolina	Tampa Bay
Washington	Kansas City	6.5	Washington	Kansas City
Jacksonville	St. Louis	9.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Sun, Oct. 18	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
Philadelphia	Oakland	14.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Seattle	Arizona	3.0	Arizona	Arizona
New England	Tennessee	9.5	New England	New England
New York Jets	Buffalo	9.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Sun, Oct. 18	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Atlanta	Chicago	3.5	Atlanta	Atlanta
Mon, Oct. 19	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
San Diego	Denver	3.5	Denver	Denver

Teams With Byes This Week: Cowboys, Colts, Dolphins, 49ers

NFL Week Five Picks

2009-10-10T12:00:00.000-07:00

For the most part, week four was another good week for the NFL. At least in terms of watching the games. Turns out Denver isn't quite as over-rated as I had thought and San Diego still can't win in Pittsburgh. Betting on them wasn't such a walk in the park for me, though. Unlike last week, I had good reasons to be wary of all the giant point spreads because a couple of them reached out and bit me pretty hard. That whole being over the hump with a winning record against the spread thingy kinda went up in flames real quick last week. A few of them I can only blame myself for, though. I definitely should have known better than to hitch my wagon onto Oakland's falling star. They are just god awful on offense and they weren't much better on defense last week either.

Last week, I had a bit of an opposites thing going on and I ended up with a 9-5 record straight up and a rather ugly 5-9 record against the spread. Which leaves me with an overall season record of 42-19 straight up and a 30-31 record against the spread. So, now I'm back to fighting to get back to the positive side of the dial with my picks against the line, but I'm still doing pretty decent picking straight winners. I'm pretty sure I'm due a break out week against these bookies. Maybe this week is the one. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Five NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 11	10:00 am (PST)	11:00 am (MST)	12:00 pm (CST)	1:00 pm (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Buffalo	Cleveland	6.0	Buffalo	Cleveland
Pittsburgh	Detroit	10.5	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Minnesota	St. Louis	9.5	Minnesota	Minnesota
Dallas	Kansas City	8.5	Dallas	Dallas
New York Giants	Oakland	15.5	New York Giants	New York Giants
Philadelphia	Tampa Bay	14.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Carolina	Washington	3.5	Washington	Washington
Baltimore	Cincinnati	8.5	Baltimore	Cincinnati
Sun, Oct. 11	1:00 pm (PST)	2:00 pm (MST)	3:00 pm (CST)	4:00 pm (EST)
San Francisco	Atlanta	2.5	San Francisco	San Francisco
New England	Denver	3.0	New England	New England
Arizona	Houston	5.5	Arizona	Houston
Seattle	Jacksonville	2.0	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Sun, Oct. 11	5:20 pm (PST)	6:20 pm (MST)	7:20 pm (CST)	8:20 pm (EST)
Indianapolis	Tennessee	3.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Mon, Oct. 12	5:35 pm (PST)	6:35 pm (MST)	7:35 pm (CST)	8:35 pm (EST)
New York Jets	Miami	1.5	New York Jets	New York Jets

Teams With Byes This Week: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego

NFL Week Four Picks

2009-10-03T12:00:00.000-07:00

Week three was a pretty good week in the NFL. There were a lot of back and forth games and several last second finishes. A certain team that I said might never win again managed to win. Things are really starting to falling into place this season and it's becoming very evident who the good, bad, and ugly teams are.Most of them are the usual candidates in the respective categories, but there are a few surprises thrown in there, too. After being so nervous about all the huge point spreads in week three, I was relieved that almost all of them covered. Of course as the saying goes, just went I thought it was safe to go back into the sportsbook, I look at the spreads this week and they are even more lopsided. Hopefully, I will survive to bet another day again this week.
Last week, I ended up with a 10-6 record both straight up and against the spread. Which leaves me with an overall season record of 33-14 straight up and a 25-22 record against the spread. I finally got over the hump with my picks against the line and there's no looking back now. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Four NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 04	10:00 am (PST)	11:00 am (MST)	12:00 pm (CST)	1:00 pm (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Chicago	Detroit	10.0	Chicago	Detroit
Cincinnati	Cleveland	6.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Indianapolis	Seattle	10.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
New York Giants	Kansas City	9.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
New England	Baltimore	2.0	Baltimore	Baltimore
Washington	Tampa Bay	7.5	Washington	Tampa Bay
Tennessee	Jacksonville	3.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Houston	Oakland	8.5	Houston	Oakland
Sun, Oct. 04	1:00 pm (PST)	2:00 pm (MST)	3:00 pm (CST)	4:00 pm (EST)
Miami	Buffalo	0.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
New Orleans	New York Jets	7.5	New Orleans	New York Jets
Dallas	Denver	3.0	Dallas	Dallas
San Francisco	St. Louis	9.5	San Francisco	San Francisco
Sun, Oct. 04	5:20 pm (PST)	6:20 pm (MST)	7:20 pm (CST)	5:20 pm (EST)
Pittsburgh	San Diego	6.5	San Diego	San Diego
Sun, Oct. 04	5:35 pm (PST)	6:35 pm (MST)	7:35 pm (CST)	8:35 pm (EST)
Minnesota	Green Bay	4	Minnesota	Minnesota

Teams with a Bye in Week Four: Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, Eagles

NFL Week Three Picks

2009-09-26T12:00:00.000-07:00

Last week, Green Bay and Pittsburgh threw me off my mark and then Miami spoiled my party on Monday. I took a bit of a step down with my straight up picks, although I still did pretty decent with a 10-6 record. Against the spread, I once again split it right down the middle with an 8-8 record. So, two weeks into the season my official records are 23-8 straight up and 15-16 against the spread. Things are starting to jell though and I'm back for week three with a much better handle on where things stand in the NFL.

However, there are two things making me sweat this week. One is the number of games with point spreads of a touchdown or more. The other is how hard it is to make a case for the underdog covering in almost all of those games. As a bettor, I love underdogs because the general public tends to bet favorites especially when they are favored big. The sportsbooks often over-compensate for that, which means that you can more often find spreads that are too high than too low. I get very nervous when there are a bunch of large point spreads and I can't justify taking those points. Unfortunately, this is one of those weeks, but I have faith in my picks.

But before we get to that, first let's go through things I liked about week two, the things I didn't like about week two, what I learned during week two, and what I already knew before week two. (READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Three NFL Games

Sun, Sep 27	10:00 am (PST)	11:00 am (MST)	12:00 pm (CST)	1:00 pm (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
New York Jets	Tennessee	2.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Houston	Jacksonville	4.0	Houston	Jacksonville
Philadelphia	Kansas City	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Baltimore	Cleveland	13.5	Baltimore	Cleveland
New York Giants	Tampa Bay	6.5	New York Giants	New York Giants
Washington	Detroit	6.5	Washington	Washington
Green Bay	St. Louis	6.5	Green Bay	Green Bay
Minnesota	San Francisco	7.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
New England	Atlanta	4.0	New England	New England
Sun, Sep 27	1:00 pm (PST)	2:00 pm (MST)	3:00 pm (CST)	4:00 pm (EST)
Chicago	Seattle	2.5	Seattle	Seattle
New Orleans	Buffalo	6.0	New Orleans	Buffalo
San Diego	Miami	5.5	Miami	Miami
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	4.0	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Denver	Oakland	1.5	Denver	Denver
Sun, Sep 27	5:20 pm (PST)	6:20 pm (MST)	7:20 pm (CST)	8:20 pm (EST)
Arizona	Indianapolis	2.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis

NFL Week Two Picks

2009-09-19T12:00:00.000-07:00

Last week I did pretty well picking who would win the games, but not quite so well against the point spread.

Picking without a line, I ended up with a 13-2 record after both of my Monday night picks staged miraculous last minute comebacks to win their games.

Unfortunately, the sportbooks weren't quite so generous to me and I ended up with a 7-8 record against the spread, in large part because both of the Monday night favorites had to stage miraculous last minute comebacks just to win their games.

The math whizzes among you may have noticed that my records only add up to fifteen games while there actually were sixteen games played last week. The answer to that discrepancy is that I didn't post my picks until after the Thursday game between Pittsburgh and Tennessee.

For the (unofficial) record I did pick the Steelers to win the game, but the Titans to cover the spread (you'd have to be crazy not to take six points in a game between those two). However since you would have to take my word for it, I'm not including that in my official picks.

Just a brief explanation of the format, since this is only week two and week one was an overall NFL preview. Each weekly preview will be split into several different sections.

The first section consists of things I saw that I liked during the previous week and how I think they apply to future games.

The second section consists of things I didn't like during the previous week and how I think they apply to future games.

The third section consists of "Things I learned" during the previous week, I.E. something that surprised me or that I had analyzed wrong and am now reevaluating.

The fourth section consists of "Things I Already Knew," I.E. where I brag about something I predicted or observed during a previous week that was born out in the most recent week's games.

The final section is where I make my picks.

Finally, the comments section is where you tell me how right or wrong you think my picks are and why. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

The Week Two Picks

Kansas City -3 vs. Oakland SU: Kansas City ATS: Oakland
Tennessee -7 vs. Houston SU: Tennessee ATS: Tennessee
New England -3.5 @ NY Jets SU: NY Jets ATS: NY Jets
Green Bay -9 vs. Cincinnati SU: Green Bay ATS: Green Bay
Minnesota -10 @ Detroit SU: Minnesota ATS: Minnesota
New Orleans -1 @ Philadelphia SU: Philadelphia ATS: Philadelphia
Atlanta -6 vs. Carolina SU: Atlanta ATS: Carolina
Washington -9.5 vs. St. Louis SU: Washington ATS: St, Louis
Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona SU: Arizona ATS: Arizona
San Francisco -1 vs. Seattle SU: San Francisco ATS: San Francisco
Buffalo -4.5 vs. Tampa Bay SU: Buffalo ATS: Buffalo
Denver -3 vs. Cleveland SU: Denver ATS: Denver
San Diego -3 vs. Baltimore SU: Baltimore ATS: Baltimore
Pittsburgh -3 @ Chicago SU: Pittsburgh ATS: Pittsburgh
Dallas -3 vs. New York Giants SU: New York Giants/ ATS: New York Giants
Indianapolis -3 @ Miami SU: Miami ATS: Miami

NFL Week One Picks

2009-09-12T12:00:00.000-07:00

Football is Back (Finally)

It's that time of year again, and if you're like me, it is not a minute too soon. I like a good hockey game and an MMA pay per view makes for a good evening, but for me nothing compares to the National Football League.

That compact sixteen game season, where every game is crucial, just can't be beat for the build up of drama and excitement. Unlike all those other sports with 80-100 games a year, there is no room to take a day off in the NFL.

As I did last season during the playoffs, I will be writing weekly hubs picking the games both for the actual winners and against the point spread.

Thanks in large part to the Cardinals winning when they were supposed to get trounced in the playoffs and then losing in the Superbowl, once I finally believed in them, I did fairly mediocre overall last season. I had some good weeks and some bad weeks, eventually averaging out to 5-6 straight up and 6-5 against the spread. I also threw in a couple sucker bets on the Superbowl (the over/under and the coin toss), and appropriately enough, ended up covering one and losing one.

I expect to do better this year, although I do tend to start slow and then come on strong at the end (I've won in three out of the four years I've participated in pick'em leagues). I'm not sure exactly why that is, but one of my theories is that I'm not much of a college football fan and it takes a few weeks to judge how the players coming in from the draft will impact teams.

Anyway, the moral to the story is that if I stumble a bit out of the gate stick with me and I'll right the ship by midseason. However, before I get into picking individual games, this hub will be devoted to predicting the winners of each division, as well as the playoffs and the eventual Superbowl winner. In future weeks I will devote more time to analyzing the individual matchups, but in the first week it's kind of a crap shoot anyway since you don't have any actual games to judge teams by.

So go break open your piggy bank, get all your money together (a second mortgage is a possible option), and get ready to bet it all on my Superbowl pick. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

The Week One Picks

Atlanta vs Miami (+4) -------- Straight up: Atlanta / Against the Spread: Miami
Cincinnati vs Denver (+4.5) ------- Straight up: Cincinnati / Against the Spread: Cincinnati
Minnesota @ Cleveland (+4) -------Straight up: Minnesota / Against the Spread: Minnesota
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville (+7) ------- Straight up:Indianapolis / Against the Spread: Indianapolis
New Orleans vs Detroit (+13) ------- Straight up:New Orleans / Against the Spread: New Orleans
Dallas @ Tampa Bay (+6) ------- Straight up: Dallas / Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
Philadelphia @ Carolina (+1) ------- Straight up: Philadelphia / Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Baltimore vs Kansas City (+13) ------- Straight up: Baltimore / Against the Spread: Baltimore
Houston vs New York Jets (+4.5) ------- Straight up: New York / Against the Spread: New York
New York Giants vs Washington (+6.5)-------Straight up: New York/Against the Spread: New York
Arizona vs San Francisco (+6.5) ------- Straight up: Arizona / Against the Spread: San Francisco
Seattle vs St. Louis (+8.5) ------- Straight up: Seattle / Against the Spread: St. Louis
Green Bay vs Chicago (+3.5) ------- Straight up: Green Bay / Against the Spread: Green Bay
New England vs Buffalo (+11) ------- Straight up: New England / Against the Spread: New England
San Diego @ Oakland (+9.5) ------- Straight up: San Diego / Against the Spread: San Diego

My Picks for Superbowl XLIII

2009-01-30T12:00:00.000-08:00

Okay, maybe I got a little cocky after my near perfect week during the Divisional Round and picked both #6 seeds to win the Conference Championships, in spite of this being the first time that two no. 6's had ever gotten one game away from the Superbowl.

So, my 0-2 record dropped me back down to where I was after the Wildcard Round leaving me 5-5 straight up and also 5-5 against the spread.

I'm done overlooking the Cardinals though and I think they have a real shot to win the whole thing. This has actually been one of the best playoffs in a long time and I think this game will follow that trend.

It would be hard for it to surpass last year with the Giants' huge upset of the undefeated Patriots (which I predicted with the correct score even), but it should be a great one. So pull out some good snacks, grab a chair, and let's get this thing started.

Since this is the final game 'til September, I decided to throw in a few extra picks rather than just picking who will win and who will cover the point spread. I'm also picking the result of the opening coin flip, the over/under, and the MVP. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks:

The Opening Coin Flip

My pick: Tails

The Over/Under - 46 1/2 points

My pick: Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers ( -7 ) vs. the Arizona Cardinals

SU: Arizona Cardinals

ATS: Arizona Cardinals

The Superbowl MVP

My pick: Kurt Warner

Weekly Record:

SU: 0-1

ATS: 0-1

The Coin Toss: 0-1

The Over/Under: 1-0

The MVP: Santonio Holmes

Final Overall Record:

SU: 5-6

ATS: 6-5

My Picks for the Conference Championship Round of the 2009 NFL Playoffs

2009-01-17T12:00:00.000-08:00

See, I told you that I would turn it around. After going just 2-2 straight up with a dismal 1-3 against the spread in my Wildcard Round picks, I went 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in my Divisional Round picks. Which leaves me 5-3 straight up and also 5-3 against the spread overall.

It's another week of reruns, but of course, both of these retreads are going to be well worth watching. One is a genuine grudge match; with no hyperbole needed to sell it as such. The other is the most unlikely conference championship matchup ever; featuring two teams that weren't even supposed to be worthy of being in the playoffs in the first place. Can it get any better than this? Maybe.

Then again, with Philly having played both Baltimore and Pittsburgh during the season, there's a fifty-fifty chance that the reruns will carry over into SuperBowl XLIII. Apparently, Hollywood isn't the only one who can't manage to come up with original programming anymore. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUPAGES)

My Picks:

Philadelphia (-3) at Arizona

SU: Philly

ATS: Philly

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-6)

SU: Baltimore

ATS: Baltimore

Weekly Record:

SU: 0-2

ATS: 0-2

Overall Record:

SU: 5-5

ATS: 5-5

My Picks for the Divisional Round of the 2009 NFL Playoffs

2009-01-09T12:00:00.000-08:00

Well, my Wildcard Round picks could have been better. Ended up 2-2 straight up (Bal. + Phil.) and 1-3 (only Philly came through for me) against the spread. But I'm back and I'm ready to turn it all around this time.

This is the rerun week for the NFL with every game being a rematch of an earlier meeting and Eagles/Giants going for a tiebreaker. Unlike most network shows lately however, these reruns should be worth watching being that the largest margin of victory in the previous games was six points.

The big question is how much more of an advantage will the bye week give the home teams this week. Recent history says homefield is a definite advantage with the home team going 47-17 since 1993. However, it isn't so significant a factor against the spread with teams splitting 31-31-2 during that same time period. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks:

Baltimore at Tennessee (-3)

SU: Baltimore

ATS: Baltimore

Arizona at Carolina (-9.5)

SU: Carolina

ATS: Baltimore

Philadelphia at New York (-4.5)

SU: Philly

ATS: Philly

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

SU: Pitt

ATS: Pitt

Weekly Record:

SU: 3-1

ATS: 4-0

Overall Record:

SU: 5-3

ATS: 5-3

My Picks for the Wildcard Round of 2009 NFL Playoffs

2009-01-02T12:00:00.000-08:00

Well, much like the fans in Minnesota and Arizona, I'm a bit late to the game this week, but, for what it is worth, here are my picks both straight up and against the spread.

I'll be somewhat brief and to the point rather than dwelling any further on the fact that two teams are struggling to sell tickets to a playoff, including one who hasn't had that opportunity in 47 years including the entire time they've resided in their current host city. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

The picks:

Atlanta (-1) at Arizona

SU: Atlanta

ATS: Atlanta

Indianapolis (-1.5) at San Diego

SU: Indy

ATS: Indy

Baltimore (-3.5) at Miami

SU: Baltimore

ATS: Miami

Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota

SU: Philly

ATS: Philly

Weekly Record:

SU: 2-2

ATS: 1-3

Overall Record:

SU: 2-2

ATS: 1-3