NFL Week Three Picks

Last week, Green Bay and Pittsburgh threw me off my mark and then Miami spoiled my party on Monday. I took a bit of a step down with my straight up picks, although I still did pretty decent with a 10-6 record. Against the spread, I once again split it right down the middle with an 8-8 record. So, two weeks into the season my official records are 23-8 straight up and 15-16 against the spread. Things are starting to jell though and I'm back for week three with a much better handle on where things stand in the NFL.

However, there are two things making me sweat this week. One is the number of games with point spreads of a touchdown or more. The other is how hard it is to make a case for the underdog covering in almost all of those games. As a bettor, I love underdogs because the general public tends to bet favorites especially when they are favored big. The sportsbooks often over-compensate for that, which means that you can more often find spreads that are too high than too low. I get very nervous when there are a bunch of large point spreads and I can't justify taking those points. Unfortunately, this is one of those weeks, but I have faith in my picks.

But before we get to that, first let's go through things I liked about week two, the things I didn't like about week two, what I learned during week two, and what I already knew before week two. (READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Three NFL Games

Sun, Sep 27	10:00 am (PST)	11:00 am (MST)	12:00 pm (CST)	1:00 pm (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
New York Jets	Tennessee	2.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Houston	Jacksonville	4.0	Houston	Jacksonville
Philadelphia	Kansas City	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Baltimore	Cleveland	13.5	Baltimore	Cleveland
New York Giants	Tampa Bay	6.5	New York Giants	New York Giants
Washington	Detroit	6.5	Washington	Washington
Green Bay	St. Louis	6.5	Green Bay	Green Bay
Minnesota	San Francisco	7.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
New England	Atlanta	4.0	New England	New England
Sun, Sep 27	1:00 pm (PST)	2:00 pm (MST)	3:00 pm (CST)	4:00 pm (EST)
Chicago	Seattle	2.5	Seattle	Seattle
New Orleans	Buffalo	6.0	New Orleans	Buffalo
San Diego	Miami	5.5	Miami	Miami
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	4.0	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Denver	Oakland	1.5	Denver	Denver
Sun, Sep 27	5:20 pm (PST)	6:20 pm (MST)	7:20 pm (CST)	8:20 pm (EST)
Arizona	Indianapolis	2.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis

NFL Week Two Picks

Last week I did pretty well picking who would win the games, but not quite so well against the point spread.

Picking without a line, I ended up with a 13-2 record after both of my Monday night picks staged miraculous last minute comebacks to win their games.

Unfortunately, the sportbooks weren't quite so generous to me and I ended up with a 7-8 record against the spread, in large part because both of the Monday night favorites had to stage miraculous last minute comebacks just to win their games.

The math whizzes among you may have noticed that my records only add up to fifteen games while there actually were sixteen games played last week. The answer to that discrepancy is that I didn't post my picks until after the Thursday game between Pittsburgh and Tennessee.

For the (unofficial) record I did pick the Steelers to win the game, but the Titans to cover the spread (you'd have to be crazy not to take six points in a game between those two). However since you would have to take my word for it, I'm not including that in my official picks.

Just a brief explanation of the format, since this is only week two and week one was an overall NFL preview. Each weekly preview will be split into several different sections.

The first section consists of things I saw that I liked during the previous week and how I think they apply to future games.

The second section consists of things I didn't like during the previous week and how I think they apply to future games.

The third section consists of "Things I learned" during the previous week, I.E. something that surprised me or that I had analyzed wrong and am now reevaluating.

The fourth section consists of "Things I Already Knew," I.E. where I brag about something I predicted or observed during a previous week that was born out in the most recent week's games.

The final section is where I make my picks.

Finally, the comments section is where you tell me how right or wrong you think my picks are and why. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

The Week Two Picks

1. Kansas City -3 vs. Oakland SU: Kansas City ATS: Oakland
2. Tennessee -7 vs. Houston SU: Tennessee ATS: Tennessee
3. New England -3.5 @ NY Jets SU: NY Jets ATS: NY Jets
4. Green Bay -9 vs. Cincinnati SU: Green Bay ATS: Green Bay
5. Minnesota -10 @ Detroit SU: Minnesota ATS: Minnesota
6. New Orleans -1 @ Philadelphia SU: Philadelphia ATS: Philadelphia
7. Atlanta -6 vs. Carolina SU: Atlanta ATS: Carolina
8. Washington -9.5 vs. St. Louis SU: Washington ATS: St, Louis
   
9. Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona SU: Arizona ATS: Arizona
10. San Francisco -1 vs. Seattle SU: San Francisco ATS: San Francisco
11. Buffalo -4.5 vs. Tampa Bay SU: Buffalo ATS: Buffalo
12. Denver -3 vs. Cleveland SU: Denver ATS: Denver
13. San Diego -3 vs. Baltimore SU: Baltimore ATS: Baltimore
14. Pittsburgh -3 @ Chicago SU: Pittsburgh ATS: Pittsburgh
15. Dallas -3 vs. New York Giants SU: New York Giants/ ATS: New York Giants
16. Indianapolis -3 @ Miami SU: Miami ATS: Miami

NFL Week One Picks

Football is Back (Finally)

Click edit above to add content to this empty capsule.

It's that time of year again, and if you're like me, it is not a minute too soon. I like a good hockey game and an MMA pay per view makes for a good evening, but for me nothing compares to the National Football League.

That compact sixteen game season, where every game is crucial, just can't be beat for the build up of drama and excitement. Unlike all those other sports with 80-100 games a year, there is no room to take a day off in the NFL.

As I did last season during the playoffs, I will be writing weekly hubs picking the games both for the actual winners and against the point spread.

Thanks in large part to the Cardinals winning when they were supposed to get trounced in the playoffs and then losing in the Superbowl, once I finally believed in them, I did fairly mediocre overall last season. I had some good weeks and some bad weeks, eventually averaging out to 5-6 straight up and 6-5 against the spread. I also threw in a couple sucker bets on the Superbowl (the over/under and the coin toss), and appropriately enough, ended up covering one and losing one.

I expect to do better this year, although I do tend to start slow and then come on strong at the end (I've won in three out of the four years I've participated in pick'em leagues). I'm not sure exactly why that is, but one of my theories is that I'm not much of a college football fan and it takes a few weeks to judge how the players coming in from the draft will impact teams.

Anyway, the moral to the story is that if I stumble a bit out of the gate stick with me and I'll right the ship by midseason. However, before I get into picking individual games, this hub will be devoted to predicting the winners of each division, as well as the playoffs and the eventual Superbowl winner. In future weeks I will devote more time to analyzing the individual matchups, but in the first week it's kind of a crap shoot anyway since you don't have any actual games to judge teams by.

So go break open your piggy bank, get all your money together (a second mortgage is a possible option), and get ready to bet it all on my Superbowl pick. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

The Week One Picks

1. Atlanta vs Miami (+4) -------- Straight up: Atlanta / Against the Spread: Miami
2. Cincinnati vs Denver (+4.5) ------- Straight up: Cincinnati / Against the Spread: Cincinnati
3. Minnesota @ Cleveland (+4) -------Straight up: Minnesota / Against the Spread: Minnesota
4. Indianapolis vs Jacksonville (+7) ------- Straight up:Indianapolis / Against the Spread: Indianapolis
5. New Orleans vs Detroit (+13) ------- Straight up:New Orleans / Against the Spread: New Orleans
6. Dallas @ Tampa Bay (+6) ------- Straight up: Dallas / Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
7. Philadelphia @ Carolina (+1) ------- Straight up: Philadelphia / Against the Spread: Philadelphia
8. Baltimore vs Kansas City (+13) ------- Straight up: Baltimore / Against the Spread: Baltimore
9. Houston vs New York Jets (+4.5) ------- Straight up: New York / Against the Spread: New York
10. New York Giants vs Washington (+6.5)-------Straight up: New York/Against the Spread: New York
11. Arizona vs San Francisco (+6.5) ------- Straight up: Arizona / Against the Spread: San Francisco
12. Seattle vs St. Louis (+8.5) ------- Straight up: Seattle / Against the Spread: St. Louis
13. Green Bay vs Chicago (+3.5) ------- Straight up: Green Bay / Against the Spread: Green Bay
14. New England vs Buffalo (+11) ------- Straight up: New England / Against the Spread: New England
15. San Diego @ Oakland (+9.5) ------- Straight up: San Diego / Against the Spread: San Diego