NFL Week 17 - AFC Picks

We're down to week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games.

Unlike previous weeks,  I'm going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

Read my NFC picks here.

The AFC Playoff Picture

In the AFC, things are still pretty wide open with the exception of Indianapolis and San Diego which have clinched the first and second seeds, respectively.

The third and fourth seeds will go to the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals, although it hasn't quite been settled which team will get the higher seeding.

By beating the Houston Texans, the Patriots can lock up that No. 3 seed. There is some speculation that New England will rest their starters, but I fully expect them to go all out and beat Houston, who will end up with their traditional 8-8 record.

Here is where things get complicated. The final two spots are up for grabs between seven different teams which are currently 8-7 or 7-8. Really though, the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars (the 7-8 teams) actually have no chance.

Of the final five teams, the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets just need to win and they will be the wild card teams. It's conceivable that the Oakland Raiders could pull off another upset, but I expect the Ravens to win their game.

As I stated previously, I expect the Patriots to eliminate the Texans in their game. Which also means that the Bengals will have nothing to play for by the time they play the Jets in the Sunday Night game.

So more likely than not, the big prime time game is going to essentially be a glorified exhibition game. Just like last week against the Colts, the Jets will get handed a victory and the final wild card spot in the process.

In the unlikely event that the Ravens and Jets don't in, either the Broncos or Steelers will be in position to make it into the playoffs.

Based on the fact they are playing the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver would seem to have the advantage over Pittsburgh, who play Miami. However,I wouldn't be surprised at all if ither one or both of these teams ended up losing.

Other Games of Interest

Some other games have the possibility to be interesting games even though they don't actually effect the playoff situation.

In Cleveland, the Browns will try to earn their third straight win by beating Jacksonville and are hoping that it will convince Mike Holmgren to bring  Eric Mangini back next year. They will, but he won't.

Also, Tennessee is going to beat Seattle to complete their improbable comeback from an 0-6 start to an 8-8 finish.

Last week, I ended up with a 9-7 record straight up and only 5-11 against the spread. Which leaves me with a season record of 147-90 straight up and 118-118-3 against the spread.

Read my NFC picks here.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen AFC Games

Sun, Jan 3	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Buffalo	Indianapolis	8.0	Buffalo	Indianapolis
@Cleveland	Jacksonville	1.5	Cleveland	Cleveland
Pittsburgh	@Miami	3.0	Miami	Miami
@Houston	New England	8.0	New England	New England
Sun, Jan 3	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Denver	Kansas City	13.0	Denver	Kansas City
Baltimore	Oakland	10.5	Baltimore	Baltimore
@San Diego	Washington	4.0	San Diego	San Diego
Tennessee	@Seattle	4.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Sun, Jan 3	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New York Jets	Cincinnati	10.0	New York Jets	Cincinnati

NFL Week 17 - NFC Picks

We're down to week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games. 

Unlike previous weeks,  I'm going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

Read my AFC picks here.

The NFC Playoff Picture

In the NFC, things are settled as to which teams are in, but there is still a pretty good amount of uncertainty about which teams will end up seeded where. 

Everything comes down to three games, which will decide the second through sixth seeds, with New Orleans having clinched the home-field advantage already. In addition, regardless of what happens, Green Bay will end up with the No. 5 seed.

The easiest of the NFL scenarios also involves what might potentially be the best game of the season featuring the Philadelphia Eagles against the Dallas Cowboys, who are arguably the two best teams in the NFC right now.

It's not very complicated math here; the winner is the NFC East champion, the loser ends up the No. 6 seed. Additionally the Eagles will be the No. 2 seed if they win, while the Cowboys could end up anywhere from the No. 2 to No. 4 spot if they win, depending on whether the Vikings and Cardinals win their respective games. 

Most likely, a Dallas win means a rematch in the first round of the playoffs

This game can easily go either way and I could see either team winning. Having said that, I'm picking the Eagles here. Dallas beat them the first time in week nine, but it was one of the worst games for the Eagles offense and they were still adjusting to being without Brian Westbrook. 

Not only is Westbrook back, but they have had time to adjust to life without him and his presence is an asset rather than a necessity at this point. Philadelphia has scored 31 points a game during their six game win streak, which began two weeks after that first game.

There are, however, two things that could point to trouble for the Eagles. 

One is their defense's propensity to forget about tackling in favor of going for the big play. While this has resulted in a fair amount of turnovers during the season, it has also turned what should be a routine play into a big play for the other team many times.

Another potential problem for the Eagles is the loss of starting center Jamaal Jackson for the season last week against Denver. This could potentially be a big loss, since the Cowboys had four sacks last time they played.

The other big game in the NFC involves the Arizona Cardinals vs. the Green Bay Packers in Arizona. 

For the Cardinals winning this game could put them into position to be the No. 2 seed (if the Vikings and Eagles both lose)  or the No. 3 seed (if the Eagles win and Vikings lose). 

If the Packers should win, more than likely the Cards and Pack will play again in the first round of the playoffs. However, if the Eagles and Giants also win, they would instead play the Vikings for the third time this season. 

Obviously, another rematch against Brett Favre's new team would be huge, but in order for that to happen the New York Giants would have to upset the Minnesota Vikings. 

With the way the Vikings have played the past month, that's not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, if the Giants weren't such a mess right now, I would pick them to beat the Vikings.

I still wouldn't be surprised if New York did win, but they have been less than impressive lately. You just never know which team is going to show up anymore.


Last week they couldn't even keep the game competitive against the Carolina Panthers when they needed a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I don't have a lot of faith that things are going to go much different this week.

Other Games of Interest

Some other games have the possibility to be interesting games even though they don't actually effect the playoff situation. 

New Orleans plays Carolina in a game that essentially means nothing, but could have some significance in light of the fact that the Saints have lost two straight games.

There is some speculation that they will rest their starters, but I expect them to play all out to try to go into the playoffs on a positive note. 

After losing to Tampa Bay last week, I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them lose, however I think the difference in the game will be the loss of Steve Smith for the Panthers last week.

The other game that has some interest in spite of not involving the playoffs is the Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The reason it is relevant is because the Falcons will be trying to finish with a winning record in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. Luckily for them, they are playing the Buccaneers and should be able to pull it off.

Last week, I ended up with a 9-7 record straight up and only 5-11 against the spread. Which leaves me with a season record of 147-90 straight up and 118-118-3 against the spread.

Read my AFC picks here.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen NFC Games

Click edit above to add content to this empty capsule.

Sun, Jan 3	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Chicago	@Detroit	3.0	Chicago	Chicago
San Francisco	@St. Louis	7.0	San Francisco	St. Louis
@Minnesota	New York Giants	9.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
Atlanta	@Tampa Bay	2.5	Atlanta	Atlanta
@Carolina	New Orleans	7.5	New Orleans	Carolina
Sun, Jan 3	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Arizona	Green Bay	3.5	Arizona	Green Bay
@San Diego	Washington	4.0	San Diego	San Diego
Tennessee	@Seattle	4.0	Tennessee	Tennessee

Why Another December Collapse is Almost Inevitable for the Dallas Cowboys

The New York Giants upset of the Dallas Cowboys has once again prompted speculation that "America's Team" will fade down the stretch.

Of course, even before last week's loss there was reason to believe that things might get a bit cold for the Cowboys this winter.

Not only have they been very inconsistent this season, but they have put together a pretty solid record of folding up their tents as soon as the calendar reaches the final page in recent years.

Over the past decade, their December win-loss record is 15-29. So, it really wasn't (or shouldn't have been) a big shock that they lost to the Giants and looked terrible while doing it.

However, the bigger problem for the Cowboys (and for Wade Philips' job security) is that, with their schedule, even if they do play as well as they have played all season, they could very easily end up with a losing record in December again.

To close out the season, Dallas plays at home against San Diego, on the road against New Orleans and Washington, and finally back home against Philadelphia. Of those teams, the Redskins are the only ones not likely to be a playoff team.

It's not at all inconceivable that the Cowboys could upset the Saints, but more likely than not, Dallas will be yet another victim of the juggernaut from New Orleans.

Provided they play up to their potential, the other three games are ones that they should have a good chance of winning. However, San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won seven straight. Beating the Chargers will be a very tough task.

The dogfight doesn't end there, either. Washington has already proven that they can compete with Dallas during their one point loss two weeks ago and Philly has a three game win streak of their own. Plus, no game between NFC East rivals is ever a given, especially if the Eagles and Cowboys are playing for the division crown in their week 17 matchup.

With one December loss already on the books, Dallas will need to win a least three of their final four games to post a winning record for the month. That, combined with their one game lead over the Eagles, leaves the Cowboys without much room for error the remainder of the season.

Beyond that, even if the Cowboys survive December intact, they still have to face their lack of success in the playoffs since '96. Unless they post a couple wins in the playoffs, those same questions about their late season play will start anew.

The pressure is on for Dallas to finish strong this year and, unfortunately for the Cowboys, their remaining schedule has set them up to fail, yet again.

My Picks for Superbowl XLIII

Okay, maybe I got a little cocky after my near perfect week during the Divisional Round and picked both #6 seeds to win the Conference Championships, in spite of this being the first time that two no. 6's had ever gotten one game away from the Superbowl.

So, my 0-2 record dropped me back down to where I was after the Wildcard Round leaving me 5-5 straight up and also 5-5 against the spread.

I'm done overlooking the Cardinals though and I think they have a real shot to win the whole thing. This has actually been one of the best playoffs in a long time and I think this game will follow that trend.

It would be hard for it to surpass last year with the Giants' huge upset of the undefeated Patriots (which I predicted with the correct score even), but it should be a great one. So pull out some good snacks, grab a chair, and let's get this thing started.

Since this is the final game 'til September, I decided to throw in a few extra picks rather than just picking who will win and who will cover the point spread. I'm also picking the result of the opening coin flip, the over/under, and the MVP. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks:

The Opening Coin Flip

My pick: Tails

The Over/Under - 46 1/2 points

My pick: Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers ( -7 ) vs. the Arizona Cardinals

SU: Arizona Cardinals

ATS: Arizona Cardinals

The Superbowl MVP

My pick: Kurt Warner

Weekly Record:

SU: 0-1

ATS: 0-1

The Coin Toss: 0-1

The Over/Under: 1-0

The MVP: Santonio Holmes

Final Overall Record:

SU: 5-6

ATS: 6-5

My Picks for the Conference Championship Round of the 2009 NFL Playoffs

See, I told you that I would turn it around. After going just 2-2 straight up with a dismal 1-3 against the spread in my Wildcard Round picks, I went 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in my Divisional Round picks. Which leaves me 5-3 straight up and also 5-3 against the spread overall.

It's another week of reruns, but of course, both of these retreads are going to be well worth watching. One is a genuine grudge match; with no hyperbole needed to sell it as such. The other is the most unlikely conference championship matchup ever; featuring two teams that weren't even supposed to be worthy of being in the playoffs in the first place. Can it get any better than this? Maybe.

Then again, with Philly having played both Baltimore and Pittsburgh during the season, there's a fifty-fifty chance that the reruns will carry over into SuperBowl XLIII. Apparently, Hollywood isn't the only one who can't manage to come up with original programming anymore. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUPAGES)

My Picks:

Philadelphia (-3) at Arizona

SU: Philly

ATS: Philly

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-6)

SU: Baltimore

ATS: Baltimore

Weekly Record:

SU: 0-2

ATS: 0-2

Overall Record:

SU: 5-5

ATS: 5-5

My Picks for the Divisional Round of the 2009 NFL Playoffs

Well, my Wildcard Round picks could have been better. Ended up 2-2 straight up (Bal. + Phil.) and 1-3 (only Philly came through for me) against the spread. But I'm back and I'm ready to turn it all around this time.

This is the rerun week for the NFL with every game being a rematch of an earlier meeting and Eagles/Giants going for a tiebreaker. Unlike most network shows lately however, these reruns should be worth watching being that the largest margin of victory in the previous games was six points.

The big question is how much more of an advantage will the bye week give the home teams this week. Recent history says homefield is a definite advantage with the home team going 47-17 since 1993. However, it isn't so significant a factor against the spread with teams splitting 31-31-2 during that same time period. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks:

Baltimore at Tennessee (-3)

SU: Baltimore

ATS: Baltimore

Arizona at Carolina (-9.5)

SU: Carolina

ATS: Baltimore

Philadelphia at New York (-4.5)

SU: Philly

ATS: Philly

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

SU: Pitt

ATS: Pitt

Weekly Record:

SU: 3-1

ATS: 4-0

Overall Record:

SU: 5-3

ATS: 5-3

My Picks for the Wildcard Round of 2009 NFL Playoffs

Well, much like the fans in Minnesota and Arizona, I'm a bit late to the game this week, but, for what it is worth, here are my picks both straight up and against the spread.

I'll be somewhat brief and to the point rather than dwelling any further on the fact that two teams are struggling to sell tickets to a playoff, including one who hasn't had that opportunity in 47 years including the entire time they've resided in their current host city. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

The picks:

Atlanta (-1) at Arizona

SU: Atlanta

ATS: Atlanta

Indianapolis (-1.5) at San Diego

SU: Indy

ATS: Indy

Baltimore (-3.5) at Miami

SU: Baltimore

ATS: Miami

Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota

SU: Philly

ATS: Philly

Weekly Record:

SU: 2-2

ATS: 1-3

Overall Record:

SU: 2-2

ATS: 1-3