Super Bowl XLIV - NFL Playoff Predictions and Picks

The New Orleans Saints are one victory away from justifying my preseason prediction that they would win the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately for them (and possibly for my reputation), the Indianapolis Colts stand in the way of their potential coronation.

I have to admit that I'm a bit conflicted about picking a winner for this game. My heart tells me to take the Saints, but my head says the Colts are the better team.

Judging by what I've seen and read the past couple weeks, I think my personal waffling is a bit of  microcosm of what the rest of the nation is currently feeling. New Orleans is clearly the sentimental favorite, while the consensus of the so-called experts is pretty solidly that Indianapolis will prevail.

When you really get down to it and examine both teams, there's little mystery to why this is the case. In what has been a decidedly unpredictable season, the one consistent factor this year has been the Colts' and Saints' positions atop the league standings. From the very outset, right down to Super Bowl Sunday, both teams have been staring at everyone else through the rear-view mirror. That's pretty much where the similarities end, though.

In fact, this game and its contrasting styles represents a Hollywood cliche come to life. It's the puncher vs. the boxer, the half court offense vs. the fast break press, the home run hitter vs the veteran pitcher, etc.

On the one hand, Indianapolis has carved up opposing teams with a surgical precision. Much of the credit for that is due to the expertise of Peyton Manning. That precision is the calling card of the Colts. They don't call a lot of fancy plays, but the plays they do run are executed with almost mechanical perfection.

On offense, they are much like a pass-based version of the Green Bay offense under Vince Lombardi. The other team knows what is coming, they just can't do anything about it. Their defense is like the other side of the same coin. Rarely is a player out of position and their timing is exquisite. Indy's D just doesn't leave many openings for opponents to exploit.

The polar opposite of the Colts' coldly efficient play is the Saints' all-out daredevil style of attack. The Saints throw everything, including the kitchen sink, at the team lined up on the other side of the field. New Orleans' forte is the big play and they are never short on tricks designed to obscure what might be coming next. Misdirections on offense and forced turnovers on defense combine to keep opponents off balance on both sides of the ball.

In spite of the many differences, there are several important similarities between these two teams. Both have solid offensive lines that have kept their quarterbacks upright all season long. The Colts led the league in least sacks allowed, while the Saints ranked fourth. However, whatever slight advantage that gives Indianapolis could be mitigated by the probable absence of  Dwight Freeney, who was the Colts top pass rusher this season.

Another obvious similarity is the amount of playmakers these two teams have on offense. The reason that nobody has been able to shut these two teams down is that there are so many options to go to.

One final key that I think is being overlooked in this game is the importance of the run game.

The Saints have been dangerous all season long when their three pronged attack of Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mike Bell have been on their game. Less evident though, has been how much they have struggled against teams that have shut down their run game. Without an effective ground game, they are less able to attack down the field.

While it was largely an afterthought during the season, Indy has really stepped it up on the ground as well during the playoffs. If they can play solid run defense against New Orleans and pick up the key yards on offense, they might run away with the game.

In the end, I think this has the potential to be one of the best Super Bowls ever and it's got shootout written all over it.

My Picks

• Take the Points - I would not be surprised at all (and very happy) if the Saints won it outright, but at the very least it should be a close game.
• Bet Your House on the Over - The total is listed as 57 points. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees could both score 29 points in their sleep.
• Put Your Money on "Tails" for the Opening Coin Toss - I always pick tails.

Rex Ryan's Jets vs Peyton Manning's Colts - NFL Playoff Picks: AFC Championship

"Sometimes when you hit the quarterback the whole team feels it" - Rex Ryan

Those would have to be the most telling words spoken during the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

The Chargers certainly felt Philip Rivers' pain as they were pounded into submission and the relentless pressure applied by the Jets ended their Super Bowl hopes.

In order to win this game New York had to turn it into a brawl. They did just that, but there was nothing sweet or scientific about Rex Ryan's game plan.

Anybody who has ever laced up the gloves knows that, while it's the haymakers that make the headlines, the body blows are what set up that eventual kodak moment.

In much the same way, New York used an aggressive attacking defense and a steady run game on offense to wear San Diego down and knock them off of their game. Shonn Greene's 53 yard, fourth quarter TD run served as the final knockout punch.

So can the Jets keep their improbable (or not, since I picked them to play in the AFCC in the preseason) playoff run going against the Colts?

Indianapolis, for their part, had little trouble handling Baltimore in the Divisional round. One of the Raven's few highlights consisted of an eight minute opening drive that allowed them to tie the game at three.

It was all downhill from there for them, thanks in no small part to Baltimore's four turnovers. Ed Reed even managed to fumble the ball during an interception return in the third quarter.

While Peyton Manning played his typical solid, efficient game (30 of 44 for 246 yds), the Colts defense stepped up against the Ravens. Specifically the run defense, which was considered a weakness coming in came up strong, holding Ravens runners to just 87 yards.

Any pretense that Baltimore had of beating Indianapolis was put to rest when Manning connected with Reggie Wayne for his second touchdown just before halftime.

Keys to the Game

The striking thing about this game is the similarities it represents to both teams' divisional round matchups. Indy has a lot in common with San Diego, while New York has much in common with Baltimore.

Both the Colts and Chargers have a high scoring passing offense led by a MVP caliber quarterback that makes up for a anemic running game. Also, both of them rank toward the bottom of the league in run defense, but are pretty solid against the pass. The ability to strike quick through the air is the strength that defines these teams.

At the same time, both the Jets and Ravens have used an efficient running game to compensate for less effective passing games led by quarterbacks that have at times struggled. In addition, each of them have top ranked defenses, which has allowed them to slow the game down and keep the pressure off their offense.

In essence, both of  these teams represent better versions of their respective opponents from the previous week.

In order for the Jets to keep the miracle run going, they will need to dictate the game with their defense and control the ball by running effectively, so that Mark Sanchez doesn't have to win the game. They'll need to pressure Manning and hope Darrelle Ravis and company can force a couple turnovers on defense.

Conversely, the Colts will need to dictate the game with their offense, scoring quickly and avoiding turnovers in order to build an early lead and force the Jets to play catchup. That's probably their best strategy to eliminate the advantage the Jets have with their running game.

If the game turns into a battle between Sanchez and Manning it will be over by halftime just like last week against the Ravens. However if the Jets can turn this into a low scoring, grind it out type of game they stand a decent chance of pulling off another upset.

Indianapolis fans have just barely gotten over the Colts pulling their starters during the week 15 game against the Jets instead of going for an undefeated season. They will really lose their minds if the Jets, who wouldn't have made the playoffs if they had lost that game, came back to beat them in the playoffs.

New York, on the other hand, is playing with house money. They've got nothing to lose at this point, because they were never supposed to be here in the first place. That lack of respect and underestimation is what has fueled their unexpected success.

The Pick

While I doubt the Jets can count on three missed field goals like in the Chargers game or the two misses they benefited from against the Bengals, that's the sort of blind luck that has kept them alive when they seemingly have had no business winning.

Now they are on the cusp of being this year's version of that team that gets hot at the right time and rides that momentum all the way to the Super Bowl.

A lot of people (unjustly) gave them little chance to beat the Bengals, pretty much nobody (including me) expected them to beat the Chargers, and you'd be pretty hard pressed to make a logical case for them to beat the Colts.

However, take the eight points the bookies are giving, because the Jets won't need them. Rex Ryan's defense is going to carry New York all the way to the big game this season.

NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

This is admittedly somewhat of an unscientific study, but I'm pretty sure me and this guy were the only ones outside of Arizona's fans who picked the Cardinals to beat the Packers last week.

I'm also fairly certain that I'm the only person on the planet who didn't think the big shootout between Arizona and Green Bay was the most amazingly great game ever played in the history of the National Football League.

Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner are undoubtedly great quarterbacks, but the score of that game had a lot more to do with neither team's defense bothering to even pretend they were going to cover receivers or attempt a tackle, once they caught the ball.

My immediate impression wasn't what an exciting game this is, but more along the lines of: if the winner of this game plays like this next week, the Saints are going to be the first NFL team to score 100 points.

Partly because of the way they packed up their tents early at the end of the season, I actually thought New Orleans might be ripe for an upset. However, after last week this has turned into one of the hardest picks of the divisional round and I'm leaning toward the Saints again.

The Cardinals should have enough to make it a close game if they decide to play defense. If not though, it will be over fast.

The one game that did catch me off guard last week was the Ravens beating the Patriots. Not so much the fact that New England lost to Baltimore, but the way they lost. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the playoffs have a way of making the cream rise to the top.

You might be able to overcome injuries and positional weaknesses in the regular season, but once it gets down to the elite few those kind of things get exploited. The bad news for the Ravens is that next week is their turn to be the exploited.

It's probably going to be a somewhat close game, because the Colts have a habit of letting teams hang around until the fourth quarter, but I have very little doubt that Indy will come out on top.

Before last week's games, Rex Ryan countered all the talk of New York not deserving to be in the playoffs by declaring that the Jets should be favored to win the Super Bowl. Then they went out and beat a team they should have beat, which somehow made everyone take that boast seriously.

In spite of the fact that the Bengals limped into the playoffs and missed two easy field goals during the game, a lot of people are suddenly considering the Jets one of the top contenders based on that victory.

As much as I would actually like to see Rex Ryan succeed (I picked the Jets to go to the AFCC in my preseason predictions largely based on him being the coach), I just don't see New York getting past the Chargers. In fact, I think it is going to turn ugly.

Which brings us to the final game between Minnesota and Dallas. There are several keys to this game and I think in the end they all point to one team.

The most obvious of the them is the momentum of each team going into the game.

Much like the Saints, the Vikings stumbled down the stretch. They ended up losing three of their final five games and not looking at all good in those losses.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, come into this game playing as good as they have all season. They've managed to avoid a December collapse and instead have won four straight games including being the first team to beat the Saints.

Another factor that will come into play Sunday is the match-ups and, once again, I think those point mostly one direction.

Teams that have been able to get pressure up front have had success at disrupting the Vikings offense. Unlike early in the season, the offensive line hasn't been doing a very good job of keeping pass rushers off Brett Favre.

Minnesota's other glaring weakness all season has been their defensive backfield. Every game they have played against a top quarter back they have gotten gashed. I expect that trend to continue when Tony Romo, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten come to town.

Similarly, the absence of E.J. Henderson (who was injured in week 13) should leave some room for Felix Jones and Marion Barber to maneuver.

So in case you somehow haven't figured it out yet, I'm picking the Cowboys to come out on top in this game and I won't be at all shocked if they win big.

Last week, my record was 2-2 both straight up and against the spread, with the Jets and Cards each covering on the field and against the number as underdogs. 

My Picks for the 2010 Divisional Playoff Games

Sat, Jan.16	1:30 PM (PST)	2:30 PM (MST)	3:30 PM (CST)	4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@New Orleans	Arizona	7.0	New Orleans	Arizona
Sat, Jan. 16	5:00 PM (PST)	6:00 PM (MST)	7:00 PM (CST)	8:00 PM (EST)
@Indianapolis	Baltimore	6.5	Indianapolis	Baltimore
Sun, Jan 17	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@Minnesota	Dallas	3.0	Dallas	Dallas
Sun, Jan 17	1:40 PM (PST)	2:40 PM (MST)	3:40 PM (CST)	4:40 PM (PST)
@San Diego	New York Jets	7.0	San Diego	San Diego

NFL Week 15 Picks

For the most part, I got back on track with a positive record last week. There were still a few teams that threw me off a bit, though.

While I did pick Cleveland to cover the spread against Pittsburgh, I figured the Steelers could manage a victory over the Browns, even as bad as they've been playing lately. I probably should have known better after their games against the Chiefs and Raiders.

And don't even get me started on the Monday night game against Arizona and San Francisco. Seems that every time I start to believe in the Cardinals they go out and lay an egg (no pun intended) against a team they should beat. Similarly, every time I start to write the 49ers off they go out an beat someone they have no business beating.

Of course, the undisputed kings of false promise are the Houston Texans. As has become the tradition in Houston, they are well on their way to an 8-8 season again this year.

But the bigger tradition for the Texans has been looking like a contender one week and looking horrible the next. which makes it practically impossible to pick their games. In fact, I don't know if there is a game this year that I have picked Houston to win that they haven't lost or a game they haven't won when I picked them to lose.

In other news, the Cowboys are in full meltdown mode, Desean Jackson is fast becoming the biggest offensive weapon in the NFL, and concussions don't have to be a part of the football.

Last Week, my record was 11-5 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. That brings my season record up to 128-78 straight up and 106-99-2 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fifteen NFL Games

Click edit above to add content to this empty capsule.

Thu, Dec 17	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Indianapolis	@Jacksonville	3.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Sat, Dec 19	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New Orleans	Dallas	7.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
Sun, Dec 20	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New England	Buffalo	7.0	New England	Buffalo
Arizona	@Detroit	11.0	Arizona	Arizona
@Tennessee	Miami	4.0	@Tennessee	Miami
@Kansas City	Cleveland	1.5	Cleveland	Cleveland
Houston	@St. Louis	12.0	Houston	St. Louis
@New York Jets	Atlanta	6.0	New York Jets	Atlanta
@Philadelphia	San Francisco	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Baltimore	Chicago	10.5	Baltimore	Chicago
Sun, Dec 20	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Denver	Oakland	14.0	Denver	Denver
@San Diego	Cincinnati	6.5	San Diego	San Diego
@Pittsburgh	Green Bay	1.5	Green Bay	Green Bay
@Seattle	Tampa Bay	7.0	Seattle	Seattle
Sun, Dec 20	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Minnesota	@Carolina	9.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Mon, Dec 21	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
New York Giants	Washington	3.0	New York Giants	New York Giants

Why Another December Collapse is Almost Inevitable for the Dallas Cowboys

The New York Giants upset of the Dallas Cowboys has once again prompted speculation that "America's Team" will fade down the stretch.

Of course, even before last week's loss there was reason to believe that things might get a bit cold for the Cowboys this winter.

Not only have they been very inconsistent this season, but they have put together a pretty solid record of folding up their tents as soon as the calendar reaches the final page in recent years.

Over the past decade, their December win-loss record is 15-29. So, it really wasn't (or shouldn't have been) a big shock that they lost to the Giants and looked terrible while doing it.

However, the bigger problem for the Cowboys (and for Wade Philips' job security) is that, with their schedule, even if they do play as well as they have played all season, they could very easily end up with a losing record in December again.

To close out the season, Dallas plays at home against San Diego, on the road against New Orleans and Washington, and finally back home against Philadelphia. Of those teams, the Redskins are the only ones not likely to be a playoff team.

It's not at all inconceivable that the Cowboys could upset the Saints, but more likely than not, Dallas will be yet another victim of the juggernaut from New Orleans.

Provided they play up to their potential, the other three games are ones that they should have a good chance of winning. However, San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won seven straight. Beating the Chargers will be a very tough task.

The dogfight doesn't end there, either. Washington has already proven that they can compete with Dallas during their one point loss two weeks ago and Philly has a three game win streak of their own. Plus, no game between NFC East rivals is ever a given, especially if the Eagles and Cowboys are playing for the division crown in their week 17 matchup.

With one December loss already on the books, Dallas will need to win a least three of their final four games to post a winning record for the month. That, combined with their one game lead over the Eagles, leaves the Cowboys without much room for error the remainder of the season.

Beyond that, even if the Cowboys survive December intact, they still have to face their lack of success in the playoffs since '96. Unless they post a couple wins in the playoffs, those same questions about their late season play will start anew.

The pressure is on for Dallas to finish strong this year and, unfortunately for the Cowboys, their remaining schedule has set them up to fail, yet again.