NFL Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

Before I give this weeks picks I have to say I'm pretty satisfied with my preseason predictions. In fact, I actually picked nine of the 12 playoff teams correctly.

In the AFC, I picked five of the six teams that made it into the playoffs. The one pick I missed was the Bengals. Instead, I had the Titans getting in.

In the NFC, I predicted four out the six eventual playoff teams. The two teams I missed were the Vikings and Cowboys. The two teams I miss-fired with were the Giants and Falcons.

This week's Wildcard matchups feature some of the most unique and bizarre scheduling anomalies to ever happen. Only 11 times in the history of the NFL has the same two teams that played in the final week of the season played each other again in the first round of the playoffs.

So, it's rather unprecedented for three of the four games this weekend to be direct rematches from last week. In fact, even that fourth game is a rematch between the Patriots and Ravens from Week four.

In spite of all the reruns on the Wildcard schedule, I think the games are going to play out quite differently than the first installments. 

In Cincinnati, I believe the game against the Jets is going to be much closer than it was when they played in New York during Week17.

The Bengals didn't go all-out last time, but I still think the Jets are going to come out ahead, because the only real threat on the Bengals offense is Chad OchoCinco and Darrell Revis was able to shut him down.

Plus Cincinnati has lost three out of their last four games and their offense has looked bad doing it. If New York can  minimize Mark Sanchez's mistakes by running the ball and playing solid defense,  they'll get another win against Cincinnati.

In the Cowboys-Eagles matchup, just about everything in the world points to a third strike for Philadelphia. Not only did the Eagles get swept by the Cowboys during the regular season, but their offense completely out of sync in both games.

Since Philly's defense has been pretty average at best all season long, that doesn't really bode well for them. Basically, they've been winning by scoring almost thirty points a game and getting a couple key plays on defense. Neither one of those things has happened in either game against Dallas this year.

However, the one thing the Eagles do have on their side is history. Andy Reid is 7-0 in the opening round of the playoffs. Plus, as everyone knows, the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

So, I'm following the trends and going with the Eagles in a close game. Admittedly though, this is by far my shakiest pick of the week.

In New England, I think the Patriots just have a little too much for the Ravens. Baltimore was less than impressive down the stretch and is one of the weaker teams in the playoffs.

Of course the big question is how much the loss of Wes Welker will cost them. I think not having Welker will hurt their chances of getting to the Super Bowl (which weren't too great in the first place), but they have enough weapons on offense to beat the Ravens without him.

Finally in the Arizona-Green Bay game, I think everybody is putting way too much emphasis on the Packers blowout of the Cardinals last week.

The truth is that Arizona didn't play several of their key starters and Green Bay still had their starters in well into the third quarter, even though they had a comfortable lead.

Being that the Packers were beating up on the Cardinals' JV team, I just don't buy all the talk of the Arizona players being psychologically damaged by the game.

Everybody is picking the Packers as the "hot" team because they won seven of their last eight games. However when you actually look at who they played, the only good team they beat was Dallas and that was back when they weren't playing very well.

This is one game I could see going either way, but I like the Cardinals to pull it out at home.

My Picks for the 2010 Wildcard Playoff Games

Sat, Jan. 9	1:30 PM (PST)	2:30 PM (MST)	3:30 PM (CST)	4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Cincinnati	New York Jets	2.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Sat, Jan. 9	5:00 PM (PST)	6:00 PM (MST)	7:00 PM (CST)	8:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Jan 10	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@New England	Baltimore	3.5	New England	New England
Sun, Jan 10	1:40 PM (PST)	2:40 PM (MST)	3:40 PM (CST)	4:40 PM (PST)
@Arizona	Green Bay	PK	Arizona	Arizona

NFL Week 16 Picks

I'm usually not a morning person, but things got off to a fast start with my straight up picks last week .

In the early games, I won seven out of eight. Which means I hit eight out of the first 10 games counting the Thursday and Saturday games.

Things didn't quite go as well in the afternoon however and I ended up finishing with a respectable, but not spectacular, 10-6 weekly record picking straight up.

It was also a bit rougher against the spread. For the week, I had a 7-8-1 record against the bookies.

It actually could have been better. I thought about switching my picks for the Dallas and Carolina games, because I had a feeling they might be close.

Unfortunately, I backed out and it cost me, since both of them not only covered, but won as underdogs. I guess that just goes to show you that betting isn't for the faint of heart.

As long as we are talking about those upsets last week , what significance will they have on this week's games? In the grand scheme of things, probably not much.

For the Saints, if anything, it is a good thing they lost. With the exception of the Patriots game they have been coasting since week seven. This will probably serve s a badly needed wake up call going into the playoffs.

As is typical for the Cowboys, they came up big in a game few people expected them to win. The other thing they typically do is lose a big game they are supposed to easily win right after that kind of win.

That and the fact there is a huge chance for them to be looking ahead to the Eagles game next week is why I am picking them to lose to the Redskins this week.

It's admittedly hard to put a lot of faith in Washington after the way they laid down against the Giants last week, but this pick is based more on the Cowboys than the Redskins.

In regards to the Vikings, all you can really say is what a difference a few weeks makes. At this time four weeks ago, it was a foregone conclusion that the Vikings had the No. two seed sewn up and were a legitimate threat to grab the home field advantage away from the Saints.

Many people were even arguing that the Vikings were the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.

Since then, Minnesota has lost two out of three games and word has leaked out about internal strife between Brett Favre, who has begun looking very ordinary, and Coach Brad Childress. At this point, they are even in danger of losing the No. two seed to the Eagles.

Things may get very interesting for the Vikings even though I'm pretty hard pressed to envision them losing to Chicago and the turnover machine they mortgaged their future to get from Denver (Jay Cutler).

My other big upset pick this week is the Titans over the Chargers. By all rights the Chargers should win this game, but I just have one of those feelings about the Titans.

In fact, there are going to have to be a lot of stars aligning just right over the next two weeks, but I think somehow, someway Tennessee is going to make it into the playoffs. Call it a Christmas miracle, but I believe in them.

For the year, my record now stands at 138-83 straight up and 113-107-3 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Sixteen NFL Games

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Fri, Dec 25	4:30 PM (PST)	5:30 PM (MST)	6:30 PM (CST)	7:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Tennessee	San Diego	3.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Sun, Dec 27	10:00AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@Atlanta	Buffalo	9.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
@Cincinnati	Kansas City	13.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@Cleveland	Oakland	3.5	Cleveland	Oakland
@Green Bay	Seattle	14.0	Green Bay	Green Bay
@Miami	Houston	3.0	Houston	Houston
@New England	Jacksonville	8.0	New England	New England
@New Orleans	Tampa Bay	14.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
@New York Giants	Carolina	7.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
@Pittsburgh	Baltimore	2.5	Pittsburgh	Baltimore
Sun, Dec 27	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Arizona	St. Louis	14.0	Arizona	Arizona
@San Francisco	Detroit	12.5	San Francisco	Detroit
@Indianapolis	New York Jets	5.5	Indianapolis	New York Jets
@Philadelphia	Denver	7.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Dec 27	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Dallas	@Washington	6.5	Washington	Washington
Mon, Dec 28	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
Minnesota	Chicago	7.0	Minnesota	Minnesota

NFL Week 15 Picks

For the most part, I got back on track with a positive record last week. There were still a few teams that threw me off a bit, though.

While I did pick Cleveland to cover the spread against Pittsburgh, I figured the Steelers could manage a victory over the Browns, even as bad as they've been playing lately. I probably should have known better after their games against the Chiefs and Raiders.

And don't even get me started on the Monday night game against Arizona and San Francisco. Seems that every time I start to believe in the Cardinals they go out and lay an egg (no pun intended) against a team they should beat. Similarly, every time I start to write the 49ers off they go out an beat someone they have no business beating.

Of course, the undisputed kings of false promise are the Houston Texans. As has become the tradition in Houston, they are well on their way to an 8-8 season again this year.

But the bigger tradition for the Texans has been looking like a contender one week and looking horrible the next. which makes it practically impossible to pick their games. In fact, I don't know if there is a game this year that I have picked Houston to win that they haven't lost or a game they haven't won when I picked them to lose.

In other news, the Cowboys are in full meltdown mode, Desean Jackson is fast becoming the biggest offensive weapon in the NFL, and concussions don't have to be a part of the football.

Last Week, my record was 11-5 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. That brings my season record up to 128-78 straight up and 106-99-2 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fifteen NFL Games

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Thu, Dec 17	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Indianapolis	@Jacksonville	3.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Sat, Dec 19	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New Orleans	Dallas	7.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
Sun, Dec 20	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New England	Buffalo	7.0	New England	Buffalo
Arizona	@Detroit	11.0	Arizona	Arizona
@Tennessee	Miami	4.0	@Tennessee	Miami
@Kansas City	Cleveland	1.5	Cleveland	Cleveland
Houston	@St. Louis	12.0	Houston	St. Louis
@New York Jets	Atlanta	6.0	New York Jets	Atlanta
@Philadelphia	San Francisco	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Baltimore	Chicago	10.5	Baltimore	Chicago
Sun, Dec 20	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Denver	Oakland	14.0	Denver	Denver
@San Diego	Cincinnati	6.5	San Diego	San Diego
@Pittsburgh	Green Bay	1.5	Green Bay	Green Bay
@Seattle	Tampa Bay	7.0	Seattle	Seattle
Sun, Dec 20	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Minnesota	@Carolina	9.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Mon, Dec 21	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
New York Giants	Washington	3.0	New York Giants	New York Giants

NFL Week Fourteen Picks

I probably should have known better than to jinx myself by bringing up that I had been doing much better on my picks over the past three weeks.

Last week, I ended up taking a bit of step back on the picks. In fact, it might have been my worst week, both picking straight-up winners and picking against the spread. I even got heckled a little bit in the comments.

Of course, it didn't help that there were a bunch of upsets, and Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Oakland, aren't making things easy for me with their up-one-week, and down-the-next styles of play this season.

Plus, I fell for a sucker bet with the 1-15 trend during December. Trends that are that one-sided are usually pretty solid, but I guess, eventually, new trends have to start.

So, for the week, I ended up 7-9 straight up (SU), and an ugly 5-11 against the spread (ATS).

Ultimately, that leaves me with a record of 117-73 straight up, and 97-92-2 against the spread. (READ ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fourteen NFL Games

Thu, Dec 10	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Pittsburgh	@Cleveland	10.0	Pittsburgh	Cleveland
Sun, Dec 13	10:00 AM(PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New Orleans	@Atlanta	10.5	New Orleans	New Orleans
Green Bay	@Chicago	3.0	Green Bay	Chicago
@Indianapolis	Denver	7.0	Indianapolis	@Indianapolis
@Kansas City	Buffalo	0.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
@Minnesota	Cincinnati	6.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@New England	Carolina	13.5	New England	New England
New York Jets	@Tampa Bay	3.0	New York Jets	New York Jets
@Jacksonville	Miami	2.5	Jacksonville	Miami
@Baltimore	Detroit	13.0	Baltimore	Detroit
@Houston	Seattle	6.0	Seattle	Seatte
Sun, Dec 13	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Tennessee	St. Louis	13.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Washington	@Oakland	1.0	Washington	Washington
Dallas	San Diego	3.0	San Diego	San Diego
Sun, Dec 13	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (MST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New York Giants	Philadelphia	1.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Mon, Dec 14	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (M)	8:30 PM (EST)
Arizona	@San Francisco	3.0	Arizona	Arizona

NFL Week Thirteen Picks

Now that the big Monday night clash between the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots is behind us, I think we are about done with matchups of the year at least until the playoffs start. We do still have some potential big games coming up though, such as this weeks Titans-Colts battle.

The Cowboys and Giants game is another that could get a bit heated. Also, the Seahawks-Niners game could be one of those ones like the Titans-Cardinals game that kinda sneaks up on you and turns into a classic.

So in other news, it must be getting close to the end of the season because my pick percentage is getting higher as the weeks go by. As I mentioned in my season preview, I tend to get much better at picking games as the season progresses. Last week I ended up with a 10-6 record straight up (winners) and a 10-5-1 record against the spread. So after twelve weeks, my overall record stands at 110-64 straight up and 92-80-2 against the spread. I'm finally starting to make some headway against the casinos. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Thirteen NFL Games

Sun, Dec. 6	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Philadelphia	@Atlanta	5.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Chicago	St. Louis	9.0	Chicago	St. Louis
@Cincinnati	Detroit	13.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@Indianapolis	Tennessee	6.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Denver	@Kansas City	4.5	Kansas City	Kansas City
New England	@Miami	5.5	New England	New England
@Pittsburgh	Oakland	14.5	Pittsburgh	Oakland
New Orleans	Washington	9.5	New Orleans	Washington
@Carolina	Tampa Bay	6.0	Carolina	Tampa Bay
@Jacksonville	Houston	0.0	Houston	Houston
Sun, Dec. 6	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
San Diego	@Cleveland	13.0	San Diego	San Diego
Dallas	@New York Giants	2.0	Dallas	Dallas
@Seattle	San Francisco	0.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
Sun, Dec 6	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@Arizona	Minnesota	3.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Mon, Dec 7	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
@Green Bay	Baltimore	3.0	Baltimore	Baltimore

NFL Week Twelve Picks

That's more like it. The Saints finally woke up and spoiled my big upset pick of the year (by about 30 points), but I still did pretty good last week. There were a couple teams that threw me a bit, but I seriously doubt anybody foresaw the Steelers getting beat by the Chiefs or the Bengals losing to the Raiders. Unless you knew about Cincinnati's 0-10 record in Oakland. Even then, I woulda been a bit skeptical of the Raiders' chances. Outside of that and my sucker bet with the Buccaneers, there weren't any real shockers in week eleven.Once all was said and done, I ended up with a 11-5 record straight up (winners) and a 10-6 record against the spread (ATS). That leaves me with an overall season record of 100-58 straight up and 82-75-1 against the number. I'm finally starting to get some breathing room on my picks against the spread. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Twelve NFL Games

Thurs, Nov. 26	9:30 AM (PDT)	10:30 AM (MDT)	11:30 AM (CDT)	12:30 AM (EDT)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Green Bay	@Detroit	11.0	Green Bay	Green Bay
Thurs, Nov. 26	1:15 PM (PDT)	2:15 PM (MDT)	3:15 PM (CDT)	4:15 PM (EDT)
@Dallas	Oakland	13.5	Dallas	Dallas
Thurs, Nov. 26	5:20 PM (PDT)	6:20 PM (MDT)	7:20 PM (CDT)	8:20 PM (EDT)
New York Giants	@Denver	6.5	New York Giants	Denver
Sun, Nov. 29	10:00 AM (PDT)	11:00 AM (MDT)	12:00 PM (CDT)	1:00 PM (EDT)
@Atlanta	Tampa Bay	12.5	Atlanta	Tampa Bay
Miami	@Buffalo	3.0	Miami	Miami
@Cincinnati	Cleveland	14.0	Cincinnati	Cleveland
Seattle	@St. Louis	3.0	Seattle	Seattle
@New York Jets	Carolina	3.0	Carolina	Carolina
@Philadelphia	Washington	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Indianapolis	@Houston	3.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Sun, Nov. 29	1:00 PM (PDT)	2:00 PM (MDT)	3:00 PM (CDT)	4:00 PM (EDT)
@San Diego	Kansas City	13.5	San Diego	Kansas City
@San Francisco	Jacksonville	3.0	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
@Tennessee	Arizona	3.0	Arizona	Arizona
@Minnesota	Chicago	10.5	Minnesota	Minnesota
Sun, Nov. 29	5:20 PM (PDT)	6:20 PM (MDT)	7:20 PM (CDT)	8:20 PM (EDT)
@Baltimore	Pittsburgh	2.5	Baltimore	Baltimore
Mon, Nov. 30	5:30 PM (PDT)	6:30 PM (MDT)	7:30 PM (CDT	8:30 PM (EDT)
@New Orleans	New England	3.0	New England	New England

NFL Week Eleven Picks

Week ten was pretty good for those watching at home, but it was kinda brutal for people picking games. I survived, but a lot of unpredictable stuff went down last week. Who figured Denver was going to drop the ball the way they did against Washington? Or that the Packers were going to put it to the Cowboys the way they did. And of course, topic number one on every channel and every front page is the Indy/Pats game and the big fourth down gamble. I even gave it it's own special section this week, because it's just that big of a topic. I'm also making my upset pick of the year this week.Not counting the Thursday night snorefest between San Francisco and Chicago, I ended up with an 8-6 record straight up (winners) and a 7-7 record against the spread. Which leaves me with an overall record of 89-53 straight up and 72-69-1 against the spread for the season. Which means I am still on the winning side against the casinos, which is what really matters. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Eleven NFL Games

Thurs, Nov. 19	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20PM (CST)	8:20PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Carolina	Miami	3.0	Carolina	Miami
Sun, Nov. 22	10:00 AM (MST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00PM (CST)	1:00PM (EST)
@Dallas	Washington	11.0	Dallas	Dallas
@Detroit	Cleveland	3.5	Detroit	Detroit
@Green Bay	San Francisco	6.5	San Francisco	San Francisco
Pittsburgh	@Kansas City	10.0	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
@Minnesota	Seattle	10.5	Minnesota	Minnesota
@New York Giants	Atlanta	6.5	New York Giants	New York Giants
New Orleans	@Tampa Bay	11.5	Tampa Bay!	Tampa Bay
@Jacksonville	Buffalo	9.0	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Indianapolis	Baltimore	1.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Sun, Nov. 22	1:00PM (PST)	2:00PM (MST)	3:00PM (CST)	4:00PM (EST)
Arizona	@St. Louis	9.0	Arizona	St. Louis
@Denver	San Diego	3.0	San Diego	San Diego
Cincinnati	@Oakland	9.5	Cincinnati	Oakland
@New England	New York Jets	10.5	New England	New England
Sun, Nov. 22	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Philadelphia	Chicago	3.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Mon, Nov. 23	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (CST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
@Houston	Tennessee	4.5	Houston	Tennessee

NFL Week Ten Picks

I had several games last week that I was really on the fence about. However instead of going with my instincts and picking the upsets, I played it safe and went with the favorites and it really cost me. Overall, I took a pretty good beating. In fact, in straight up picks this was my worst week ever. Luckily, Pittsburgh came through with a victory in the Monday night game to keep me from posting a losing record picking the winners. Unfortunately, I wasn't quite so lucky against the spread. Instead, the Steelers covering the number cost me a winning record.So once all was said and done, I came out of it with a 7-6 record straight up (winners) and a 6-7 record against the spread. Which leaves with a season record of 81-47 straight up and 65-62-1 against the spread. Which means I'm still on the winning side against the line, although I don't have much of a cushion left anymore. I need a coupe good weeks to get me over that hump. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Ten NFL Games

Sun, Nov. 15	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Tennessee	Buffalo	6.5	Tennessee	Tennessee
New Orleans	@St. Louis	13.5	New Orleans	St. Louis
@Miami	Tampa Bay	10.0	Miami	Miami
@Minnesota	Detroit	16.5	Minnesota	Detroit
@New York Jets	Jacksonville	7.0	New York Jets	Jacksonville
@Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	7.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Denver	@Washington	3.5	Denver	Denver
Atlanta	@Carolina	1.5	Atlanta	Atlanta
Sun, Nov. 15	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Oakland	Kansas City	1.5	Kansas City	Kansas City
Dallas	@Green Bay	3.0	Dallas	Dallas
@Arizona	Seattle	8.5	Arizona	Seattle
@San Diego	Philadelphia	2.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Nov. 15	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@Indianapolis	New England	3.0	New England	New England
Mon, Nov. 16	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
Baltimore	@Cleveland	11.0	Baltimore	Baltimore

Teams with byes in week ten: Houston and the New York Giants