NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

This is admittedly somewhat of an unscientific study, but I'm pretty sure me and this guy were the only ones outside of Arizona's fans who picked the Cardinals to beat the Packers last week.

I'm also fairly certain that I'm the only person on the planet who didn't think the big shootout between Arizona and Green Bay was the most amazingly great game ever played in the history of the National Football League.

Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner are undoubtedly great quarterbacks, but the score of that game had a lot more to do with neither team's defense bothering to even pretend they were going to cover receivers or attempt a tackle, once they caught the ball.

My immediate impression wasn't what an exciting game this is, but more along the lines of: if the winner of this game plays like this next week, the Saints are going to be the first NFL team to score 100 points.

Partly because of the way they packed up their tents early at the end of the season, I actually thought New Orleans might be ripe for an upset. However, after last week this has turned into one of the hardest picks of the divisional round and I'm leaning toward the Saints again.

The Cardinals should have enough to make it a close game if they decide to play defense. If not though, it will be over fast.

The one game that did catch me off guard last week was the Ravens beating the Patriots. Not so much the fact that New England lost to Baltimore, but the way they lost. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the playoffs have a way of making the cream rise to the top.

You might be able to overcome injuries and positional weaknesses in the regular season, but once it gets down to the elite few those kind of things get exploited. The bad news for the Ravens is that next week is their turn to be the exploited.

It's probably going to be a somewhat close game, because the Colts have a habit of letting teams hang around until the fourth quarter, but I have very little doubt that Indy will come out on top.

Before last week's games, Rex Ryan countered all the talk of New York not deserving to be in the playoffs by declaring that the Jets should be favored to win the Super Bowl. Then they went out and beat a team they should have beat, which somehow made everyone take that boast seriously.

In spite of the fact that the Bengals limped into the playoffs and missed two easy field goals during the game, a lot of people are suddenly considering the Jets one of the top contenders based on that victory.

As much as I would actually like to see Rex Ryan succeed (I picked the Jets to go to the AFCC in my preseason predictions largely based on him being the coach), I just don't see New York getting past the Chargers. In fact, I think it is going to turn ugly.

Which brings us to the final game between Minnesota and Dallas. There are several keys to this game and I think in the end they all point to one team.

The most obvious of the them is the momentum of each team going into the game.

Much like the Saints, the Vikings stumbled down the stretch. They ended up losing three of their final five games and not looking at all good in those losses.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, come into this game playing as good as they have all season. They've managed to avoid a December collapse and instead have won four straight games including being the first team to beat the Saints.

Another factor that will come into play Sunday is the match-ups and, once again, I think those point mostly one direction.

Teams that have been able to get pressure up front have had success at disrupting the Vikings offense. Unlike early in the season, the offensive line hasn't been doing a very good job of keeping pass rushers off Brett Favre.

Minnesota's other glaring weakness all season has been their defensive backfield. Every game they have played against a top quarter back they have gotten gashed. I expect that trend to continue when Tony Romo, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten come to town.

Similarly, the absence of E.J. Henderson (who was injured in week 13) should leave some room for Felix Jones and Marion Barber to maneuver.

So in case you somehow haven't figured it out yet, I'm picking the Cowboys to come out on top in this game and I won't be at all shocked if they win big.

Last week, my record was 2-2 both straight up and against the spread, with the Jets and Cards each covering on the field and against the number as underdogs. 

My Picks for the 2010 Divisional Playoff Games

Sat, Jan.16	1:30 PM (PST)	2:30 PM (MST)	3:30 PM (CST)	4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@New Orleans	Arizona	7.0	New Orleans	Arizona
Sat, Jan. 16	5:00 PM (PST)	6:00 PM (MST)	7:00 PM (CST)	8:00 PM (EST)
@Indianapolis	Baltimore	6.5	Indianapolis	Baltimore
Sun, Jan 17	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@Minnesota	Dallas	3.0	Dallas	Dallas
Sun, Jan 17	1:40 PM (PST)	2:40 PM (MST)	3:40 PM (CST)	4:40 PM (PST)
@San Diego	New York Jets	7.0	San Diego	San Diego

NFL Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

Before I give this weeks picks I have to say I'm pretty satisfied with my preseason predictions. In fact, I actually picked nine of the 12 playoff teams correctly.

In the AFC, I picked five of the six teams that made it into the playoffs. The one pick I missed was the Bengals. Instead, I had the Titans getting in.

In the NFC, I predicted four out the six eventual playoff teams. The two teams I missed were the Vikings and Cowboys. The two teams I miss-fired with were the Giants and Falcons.

This week's Wildcard matchups feature some of the most unique and bizarre scheduling anomalies to ever happen. Only 11 times in the history of the NFL has the same two teams that played in the final week of the season played each other again in the first round of the playoffs.

So, it's rather unprecedented for three of the four games this weekend to be direct rematches from last week. In fact, even that fourth game is a rematch between the Patriots and Ravens from Week four.

In spite of all the reruns on the Wildcard schedule, I think the games are going to play out quite differently than the first installments. 

In Cincinnati, I believe the game against the Jets is going to be much closer than it was when they played in New York during Week17.

The Bengals didn't go all-out last time, but I still think the Jets are going to come out ahead, because the only real threat on the Bengals offense is Chad OchoCinco and Darrell Revis was able to shut him down.

Plus Cincinnati has lost three out of their last four games and their offense has looked bad doing it. If New York can  minimize Mark Sanchez's mistakes by running the ball and playing solid defense,  they'll get another win against Cincinnati.

In the Cowboys-Eagles matchup, just about everything in the world points to a third strike for Philadelphia. Not only did the Eagles get swept by the Cowboys during the regular season, but their offense completely out of sync in both games.

Since Philly's defense has been pretty average at best all season long, that doesn't really bode well for them. Basically, they've been winning by scoring almost thirty points a game and getting a couple key plays on defense. Neither one of those things has happened in either game against Dallas this year.

However, the one thing the Eagles do have on their side is history. Andy Reid is 7-0 in the opening round of the playoffs. Plus, as everyone knows, the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

So, I'm following the trends and going with the Eagles in a close game. Admittedly though, this is by far my shakiest pick of the week.

In New England, I think the Patriots just have a little too much for the Ravens. Baltimore was less than impressive down the stretch and is one of the weaker teams in the playoffs.

Of course the big question is how much the loss of Wes Welker will cost them. I think not having Welker will hurt their chances of getting to the Super Bowl (which weren't too great in the first place), but they have enough weapons on offense to beat the Ravens without him.

Finally in the Arizona-Green Bay game, I think everybody is putting way too much emphasis on the Packers blowout of the Cardinals last week.

The truth is that Arizona didn't play several of their key starters and Green Bay still had their starters in well into the third quarter, even though they had a comfortable lead.

Being that the Packers were beating up on the Cardinals' JV team, I just don't buy all the talk of the Arizona players being psychologically damaged by the game.

Everybody is picking the Packers as the "hot" team because they won seven of their last eight games. However when you actually look at who they played, the only good team they beat was Dallas and that was back when they weren't playing very well.

This is one game I could see going either way, but I like the Cardinals to pull it out at home.

My Picks for the 2010 Wildcard Playoff Games

Sat, Jan. 9	1:30 PM (PST)	2:30 PM (MST)	3:30 PM (CST)	4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Cincinnati	New York Jets	2.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Sat, Jan. 9	5:00 PM (PST)	6:00 PM (MST)	7:00 PM (CST)	8:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Jan 10	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@New England	Baltimore	3.5	New England	New England
Sun, Jan 10	1:40 PM (PST)	2:40 PM (MST)	3:40 PM (CST)	4:40 PM (PST)
@Arizona	Green Bay	PK	Arizona	Arizona