Super Bowl XLIV - NFL Playoff Predictions and Picks

The New Orleans Saints are one victory away from justifying my preseason prediction that they would win the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately for them (and possibly for my reputation), the Indianapolis Colts stand in the way of their potential coronation.

I have to admit that I'm a bit conflicted about picking a winner for this game. My heart tells me to take the Saints, but my head says the Colts are the better team.

Judging by what I've seen and read the past couple weeks, I think my personal waffling is a bit of  microcosm of what the rest of the nation is currently feeling. New Orleans is clearly the sentimental favorite, while the consensus of the so-called experts is pretty solidly that Indianapolis will prevail.

When you really get down to it and examine both teams, there's little mystery to why this is the case. In what has been a decidedly unpredictable season, the one consistent factor this year has been the Colts' and Saints' positions atop the league standings. From the very outset, right down to Super Bowl Sunday, both teams have been staring at everyone else through the rear-view mirror. That's pretty much where the similarities end, though.

In fact, this game and its contrasting styles represents a Hollywood cliche come to life. It's the puncher vs. the boxer, the half court offense vs. the fast break press, the home run hitter vs the veteran pitcher, etc.

On the one hand, Indianapolis has carved up opposing teams with a surgical precision. Much of the credit for that is due to the expertise of Peyton Manning. That precision is the calling card of the Colts. They don't call a lot of fancy plays, but the plays they do run are executed with almost mechanical perfection.

On offense, they are much like a pass-based version of the Green Bay offense under Vince Lombardi. The other team knows what is coming, they just can't do anything about it. Their defense is like the other side of the same coin. Rarely is a player out of position and their timing is exquisite. Indy's D just doesn't leave many openings for opponents to exploit.

The polar opposite of the Colts' coldly efficient play is the Saints' all-out daredevil style of attack. The Saints throw everything, including the kitchen sink, at the team lined up on the other side of the field. New Orleans' forte is the big play and they are never short on tricks designed to obscure what might be coming next. Misdirections on offense and forced turnovers on defense combine to keep opponents off balance on both sides of the ball.

In spite of the many differences, there are several important similarities between these two teams. Both have solid offensive lines that have kept their quarterbacks upright all season long. The Colts led the league in least sacks allowed, while the Saints ranked fourth. However, whatever slight advantage that gives Indianapolis could be mitigated by the probable absence of  Dwight Freeney, who was the Colts top pass rusher this season.

Another obvious similarity is the amount of playmakers these two teams have on offense. The reason that nobody has been able to shut these two teams down is that there are so many options to go to.

One final key that I think is being overlooked in this game is the importance of the run game.

The Saints have been dangerous all season long when their three pronged attack of Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mike Bell have been on their game. Less evident though, has been how much they have struggled against teams that have shut down their run game. Without an effective ground game, they are less able to attack down the field.

While it was largely an afterthought during the season, Indy has really stepped it up on the ground as well during the playoffs. If they can play solid run defense against New Orleans and pick up the key yards on offense, they might run away with the game.

In the end, I think this has the potential to be one of the best Super Bowls ever and it's got shootout written all over it.

My Picks

• Take the Points - I would not be surprised at all (and very happy) if the Saints won it outright, but at the very least it should be a close game.
• Bet Your House on the Over - The total is listed as 57 points. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees could both score 29 points in their sleep.
• Put Your Money on "Tails" for the Opening Coin Toss - I always pick tails.

Rex Ryan's Jets vs Peyton Manning's Colts - NFL Playoff Picks: AFC Championship

"Sometimes when you hit the quarterback the whole team feels it" - Rex Ryan

Those would have to be the most telling words spoken during the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

The Chargers certainly felt Philip Rivers' pain as they were pounded into submission and the relentless pressure applied by the Jets ended their Super Bowl hopes.

In order to win this game New York had to turn it into a brawl. They did just that, but there was nothing sweet or scientific about Rex Ryan's game plan.

Anybody who has ever laced up the gloves knows that, while it's the haymakers that make the headlines, the body blows are what set up that eventual kodak moment.

In much the same way, New York used an aggressive attacking defense and a steady run game on offense to wear San Diego down and knock them off of their game. Shonn Greene's 53 yard, fourth quarter TD run served as the final knockout punch.

So can the Jets keep their improbable (or not, since I picked them to play in the AFCC in the preseason) playoff run going against the Colts?

Indianapolis, for their part, had little trouble handling Baltimore in the Divisional round. One of the Raven's few highlights consisted of an eight minute opening drive that allowed them to tie the game at three.

It was all downhill from there for them, thanks in no small part to Baltimore's four turnovers. Ed Reed even managed to fumble the ball during an interception return in the third quarter.

While Peyton Manning played his typical solid, efficient game (30 of 44 for 246 yds), the Colts defense stepped up against the Ravens. Specifically the run defense, which was considered a weakness coming in came up strong, holding Ravens runners to just 87 yards.

Any pretense that Baltimore had of beating Indianapolis was put to rest when Manning connected with Reggie Wayne for his second touchdown just before halftime.

Keys to the Game

The striking thing about this game is the similarities it represents to both teams' divisional round matchups. Indy has a lot in common with San Diego, while New York has much in common with Baltimore.

Both the Colts and Chargers have a high scoring passing offense led by a MVP caliber quarterback that makes up for a anemic running game. Also, both of them rank toward the bottom of the league in run defense, but are pretty solid against the pass. The ability to strike quick through the air is the strength that defines these teams.

At the same time, both the Jets and Ravens have used an efficient running game to compensate for less effective passing games led by quarterbacks that have at times struggled. In addition, each of them have top ranked defenses, which has allowed them to slow the game down and keep the pressure off their offense.

In essence, both of  these teams represent better versions of their respective opponents from the previous week.

In order for the Jets to keep the miracle run going, they will need to dictate the game with their defense and control the ball by running effectively, so that Mark Sanchez doesn't have to win the game. They'll need to pressure Manning and hope Darrelle Ravis and company can force a couple turnovers on defense.

Conversely, the Colts will need to dictate the game with their offense, scoring quickly and avoiding turnovers in order to build an early lead and force the Jets to play catchup. That's probably their best strategy to eliminate the advantage the Jets have with their running game.

If the game turns into a battle between Sanchez and Manning it will be over by halftime just like last week against the Ravens. However if the Jets can turn this into a low scoring, grind it out type of game they stand a decent chance of pulling off another upset.

Indianapolis fans have just barely gotten over the Colts pulling their starters during the week 15 game against the Jets instead of going for an undefeated season. They will really lose their minds if the Jets, who wouldn't have made the playoffs if they had lost that game, came back to beat them in the playoffs.

New York, on the other hand, is playing with house money. They've got nothing to lose at this point, because they were never supposed to be here in the first place. That lack of respect and underestimation is what has fueled their unexpected success.

The Pick

While I doubt the Jets can count on three missed field goals like in the Chargers game or the two misses they benefited from against the Bengals, that's the sort of blind luck that has kept them alive when they seemingly have had no business winning.

Now they are on the cusp of being this year's version of that team that gets hot at the right time and rides that momentum all the way to the Super Bowl.

A lot of people (unjustly) gave them little chance to beat the Bengals, pretty much nobody (including me) expected them to beat the Chargers, and you'd be pretty hard pressed to make a logical case for them to beat the Colts.

However, take the eight points the bookies are giving, because the Jets won't need them. Rex Ryan's defense is going to carry New York all the way to the big game this season.

NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

This is admittedly somewhat of an unscientific study, but I'm pretty sure me and this guy were the only ones outside of Arizona's fans who picked the Cardinals to beat the Packers last week.

I'm also fairly certain that I'm the only person on the planet who didn't think the big shootout between Arizona and Green Bay was the most amazingly great game ever played in the history of the National Football League.

Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner are undoubtedly great quarterbacks, but the score of that game had a lot more to do with neither team's defense bothering to even pretend they were going to cover receivers or attempt a tackle, once they caught the ball.

My immediate impression wasn't what an exciting game this is, but more along the lines of: if the winner of this game plays like this next week, the Saints are going to be the first NFL team to score 100 points.

Partly because of the way they packed up their tents early at the end of the season, I actually thought New Orleans might be ripe for an upset. However, after last week this has turned into one of the hardest picks of the divisional round and I'm leaning toward the Saints again.

The Cardinals should have enough to make it a close game if they decide to play defense. If not though, it will be over fast.

The one game that did catch me off guard last week was the Ravens beating the Patriots. Not so much the fact that New England lost to Baltimore, but the way they lost. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the playoffs have a way of making the cream rise to the top.

You might be able to overcome injuries and positional weaknesses in the regular season, but once it gets down to the elite few those kind of things get exploited. The bad news for the Ravens is that next week is their turn to be the exploited.

It's probably going to be a somewhat close game, because the Colts have a habit of letting teams hang around until the fourth quarter, but I have very little doubt that Indy will come out on top.

Before last week's games, Rex Ryan countered all the talk of New York not deserving to be in the playoffs by declaring that the Jets should be favored to win the Super Bowl. Then they went out and beat a team they should have beat, which somehow made everyone take that boast seriously.

In spite of the fact that the Bengals limped into the playoffs and missed two easy field goals during the game, a lot of people are suddenly considering the Jets one of the top contenders based on that victory.

As much as I would actually like to see Rex Ryan succeed (I picked the Jets to go to the AFCC in my preseason predictions largely based on him being the coach), I just don't see New York getting past the Chargers. In fact, I think it is going to turn ugly.

Which brings us to the final game between Minnesota and Dallas. There are several keys to this game and I think in the end they all point to one team.

The most obvious of the them is the momentum of each team going into the game.

Much like the Saints, the Vikings stumbled down the stretch. They ended up losing three of their final five games and not looking at all good in those losses.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, come into this game playing as good as they have all season. They've managed to avoid a December collapse and instead have won four straight games including being the first team to beat the Saints.

Another factor that will come into play Sunday is the match-ups and, once again, I think those point mostly one direction.

Teams that have been able to get pressure up front have had success at disrupting the Vikings offense. Unlike early in the season, the offensive line hasn't been doing a very good job of keeping pass rushers off Brett Favre.

Minnesota's other glaring weakness all season has been their defensive backfield. Every game they have played against a top quarter back they have gotten gashed. I expect that trend to continue when Tony Romo, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten come to town.

Similarly, the absence of E.J. Henderson (who was injured in week 13) should leave some room for Felix Jones and Marion Barber to maneuver.

So in case you somehow haven't figured it out yet, I'm picking the Cowboys to come out on top in this game and I won't be at all shocked if they win big.

Last week, my record was 2-2 both straight up and against the spread, with the Jets and Cards each covering on the field and against the number as underdogs. 

My Picks for the 2010 Divisional Playoff Games

Sat, Jan.16	1:30 PM (PST)	2:30 PM (MST)	3:30 PM (CST)	4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@New Orleans	Arizona	7.0	New Orleans	Arizona
Sat, Jan. 16	5:00 PM (PST)	6:00 PM (MST)	7:00 PM (CST)	8:00 PM (EST)
@Indianapolis	Baltimore	6.5	Indianapolis	Baltimore
Sun, Jan 17	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@Minnesota	Dallas	3.0	Dallas	Dallas
Sun, Jan 17	1:40 PM (PST)	2:40 PM (MST)	3:40 PM (CST)	4:40 PM (PST)
@San Diego	New York Jets	7.0	San Diego	San Diego

NFL Week 17 - AFC Picks

We're down to week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games.

Unlike previous weeks,  I'm going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

Read my NFC picks here.

The AFC Playoff Picture

In the AFC, things are still pretty wide open with the exception of Indianapolis and San Diego which have clinched the first and second seeds, respectively.

The third and fourth seeds will go to the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals, although it hasn't quite been settled which team will get the higher seeding.

By beating the Houston Texans, the Patriots can lock up that No. 3 seed. There is some speculation that New England will rest their starters, but I fully expect them to go all out and beat Houston, who will end up with their traditional 8-8 record.

Here is where things get complicated. The final two spots are up for grabs between seven different teams which are currently 8-7 or 7-8. Really though, the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars (the 7-8 teams) actually have no chance.

Of the final five teams, the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets just need to win and they will be the wild card teams. It's conceivable that the Oakland Raiders could pull off another upset, but I expect the Ravens to win their game.

As I stated previously, I expect the Patriots to eliminate the Texans in their game. Which also means that the Bengals will have nothing to play for by the time they play the Jets in the Sunday Night game.

So more likely than not, the big prime time game is going to essentially be a glorified exhibition game. Just like last week against the Colts, the Jets will get handed a victory and the final wild card spot in the process.

In the unlikely event that the Ravens and Jets don't in, either the Broncos or Steelers will be in position to make it into the playoffs.

Based on the fact they are playing the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver would seem to have the advantage over Pittsburgh, who play Miami. However,I wouldn't be surprised at all if ither one or both of these teams ended up losing.

Other Games of Interest

Some other games have the possibility to be interesting games even though they don't actually effect the playoff situation.

In Cleveland, the Browns will try to earn their third straight win by beating Jacksonville and are hoping that it will convince Mike Holmgren to bring  Eric Mangini back next year. They will, but he won't.

Also, Tennessee is going to beat Seattle to complete their improbable comeback from an 0-6 start to an 8-8 finish.

Last week, I ended up with a 9-7 record straight up and only 5-11 against the spread. Which leaves me with a season record of 147-90 straight up and 118-118-3 against the spread.

Read my NFC picks here.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen AFC Games

Sun, Jan 3	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Buffalo	Indianapolis	8.0	Buffalo	Indianapolis
@Cleveland	Jacksonville	1.5	Cleveland	Cleveland
Pittsburgh	@Miami	3.0	Miami	Miami
@Houston	New England	8.0	New England	New England
Sun, Jan 3	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Denver	Kansas City	13.0	Denver	Kansas City
Baltimore	Oakland	10.5	Baltimore	Baltimore
@San Diego	Washington	4.0	San Diego	San Diego
Tennessee	@Seattle	4.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Sun, Jan 3	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New York Jets	Cincinnati	10.0	New York Jets	Cincinnati

NFL Week 17 - NFC Picks

We're down to week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games. 

Unlike previous weeks,  I'm going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

Read my AFC picks here.

The NFC Playoff Picture

In the NFC, things are settled as to which teams are in, but there is still a pretty good amount of uncertainty about which teams will end up seeded where. 

Everything comes down to three games, which will decide the second through sixth seeds, with New Orleans having clinched the home-field advantage already. In addition, regardless of what happens, Green Bay will end up with the No. 5 seed.

The easiest of the NFL scenarios also involves what might potentially be the best game of the season featuring the Philadelphia Eagles against the Dallas Cowboys, who are arguably the two best teams in the NFC right now.

It's not very complicated math here; the winner is the NFC East champion, the loser ends up the No. 6 seed. Additionally the Eagles will be the No. 2 seed if they win, while the Cowboys could end up anywhere from the No. 2 to No. 4 spot if they win, depending on whether the Vikings and Cardinals win their respective games. 

Most likely, a Dallas win means a rematch in the first round of the playoffs

This game can easily go either way and I could see either team winning. Having said that, I'm picking the Eagles here. Dallas beat them the first time in week nine, but it was one of the worst games for the Eagles offense and they were still adjusting to being without Brian Westbrook. 

Not only is Westbrook back, but they have had time to adjust to life without him and his presence is an asset rather than a necessity at this point. Philadelphia has scored 31 points a game during their six game win streak, which began two weeks after that first game.

There are, however, two things that could point to trouble for the Eagles. 

One is their defense's propensity to forget about tackling in favor of going for the big play. While this has resulted in a fair amount of turnovers during the season, it has also turned what should be a routine play into a big play for the other team many times.

Another potential problem for the Eagles is the loss of starting center Jamaal Jackson for the season last week against Denver. This could potentially be a big loss, since the Cowboys had four sacks last time they played.

The other big game in the NFC involves the Arizona Cardinals vs. the Green Bay Packers in Arizona. 

For the Cardinals winning this game could put them into position to be the No. 2 seed (if the Vikings and Eagles both lose)  or the No. 3 seed (if the Eagles win and Vikings lose). 

If the Packers should win, more than likely the Cards and Pack will play again in the first round of the playoffs. However, if the Eagles and Giants also win, they would instead play the Vikings for the third time this season. 

Obviously, another rematch against Brett Favre's new team would be huge, but in order for that to happen the New York Giants would have to upset the Minnesota Vikings. 

With the way the Vikings have played the past month, that's not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, if the Giants weren't such a mess right now, I would pick them to beat the Vikings.

I still wouldn't be surprised if New York did win, but they have been less than impressive lately. You just never know which team is going to show up anymore.


Last week they couldn't even keep the game competitive against the Carolina Panthers when they needed a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I don't have a lot of faith that things are going to go much different this week.

Other Games of Interest

Some other games have the possibility to be interesting games even though they don't actually effect the playoff situation. 

New Orleans plays Carolina in a game that essentially means nothing, but could have some significance in light of the fact that the Saints have lost two straight games.

There is some speculation that they will rest their starters, but I expect them to play all out to try to go into the playoffs on a positive note. 

After losing to Tampa Bay last week, I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them lose, however I think the difference in the game will be the loss of Steve Smith for the Panthers last week.

The other game that has some interest in spite of not involving the playoffs is the Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The reason it is relevant is because the Falcons will be trying to finish with a winning record in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. Luckily for them, they are playing the Buccaneers and should be able to pull it off.

Last week, I ended up with a 9-7 record straight up and only 5-11 against the spread. Which leaves me with a season record of 147-90 straight up and 118-118-3 against the spread.

Read my AFC picks here.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen NFC Games

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Sun, Jan 3	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Chicago	@Detroit	3.0	Chicago	Chicago
San Francisco	@St. Louis	7.0	San Francisco	St. Louis
@Minnesota	New York Giants	9.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
Atlanta	@Tampa Bay	2.5	Atlanta	Atlanta
@Carolina	New Orleans	7.5	New Orleans	Carolina
Sun, Jan 3	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Arizona	Green Bay	3.5	Arizona	Green Bay
@San Diego	Washington	4.0	San Diego	San Diego
Tennessee	@Seattle	4.0	Tennessee	Tennessee

NFL Week 16 Picks

I'm usually not a morning person, but things got off to a fast start with my straight up picks last week .

In the early games, I won seven out of eight. Which means I hit eight out of the first 10 games counting the Thursday and Saturday games.

Things didn't quite go as well in the afternoon however and I ended up finishing with a respectable, but not spectacular, 10-6 weekly record picking straight up.

It was also a bit rougher against the spread. For the week, I had a 7-8-1 record against the bookies.

It actually could have been better. I thought about switching my picks for the Dallas and Carolina games, because I had a feeling they might be close.

Unfortunately, I backed out and it cost me, since both of them not only covered, but won as underdogs. I guess that just goes to show you that betting isn't for the faint of heart.

As long as we are talking about those upsets last week , what significance will they have on this week's games? In the grand scheme of things, probably not much.

For the Saints, if anything, it is a good thing they lost. With the exception of the Patriots game they have been coasting since week seven. This will probably serve s a badly needed wake up call going into the playoffs.

As is typical for the Cowboys, they came up big in a game few people expected them to win. The other thing they typically do is lose a big game they are supposed to easily win right after that kind of win.

That and the fact there is a huge chance for them to be looking ahead to the Eagles game next week is why I am picking them to lose to the Redskins this week.

It's admittedly hard to put a lot of faith in Washington after the way they laid down against the Giants last week, but this pick is based more on the Cowboys than the Redskins.

In regards to the Vikings, all you can really say is what a difference a few weeks makes. At this time four weeks ago, it was a foregone conclusion that the Vikings had the No. two seed sewn up and were a legitimate threat to grab the home field advantage away from the Saints.

Many people were even arguing that the Vikings were the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.

Since then, Minnesota has lost two out of three games and word has leaked out about internal strife between Brett Favre, who has begun looking very ordinary, and Coach Brad Childress. At this point, they are even in danger of losing the No. two seed to the Eagles.

Things may get very interesting for the Vikings even though I'm pretty hard pressed to envision them losing to Chicago and the turnover machine they mortgaged their future to get from Denver (Jay Cutler).

My other big upset pick this week is the Titans over the Chargers. By all rights the Chargers should win this game, but I just have one of those feelings about the Titans.

In fact, there are going to have to be a lot of stars aligning just right over the next two weeks, but I think somehow, someway Tennessee is going to make it into the playoffs. Call it a Christmas miracle, but I believe in them.

For the year, my record now stands at 138-83 straight up and 113-107-3 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Sixteen NFL Games

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Fri, Dec 25	4:30 PM (PST)	5:30 PM (MST)	6:30 PM (CST)	7:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Tennessee	San Diego	3.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Sun, Dec 27	10:00AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@Atlanta	Buffalo	9.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
@Cincinnati	Kansas City	13.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@Cleveland	Oakland	3.5	Cleveland	Oakland
@Green Bay	Seattle	14.0	Green Bay	Green Bay
@Miami	Houston	3.0	Houston	Houston
@New England	Jacksonville	8.0	New England	New England
@New Orleans	Tampa Bay	14.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
@New York Giants	Carolina	7.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
@Pittsburgh	Baltimore	2.5	Pittsburgh	Baltimore
Sun, Dec 27	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Arizona	St. Louis	14.0	Arizona	Arizona
@San Francisco	Detroit	12.5	San Francisco	Detroit
@Indianapolis	New York Jets	5.5	Indianapolis	New York Jets
@Philadelphia	Denver	7.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Dec 27	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Dallas	@Washington	6.5	Washington	Washington
Mon, Dec 28	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
Minnesota	Chicago	7.0	Minnesota	Minnesota

NFL Week 15 Picks

For the most part, I got back on track with a positive record last week. There were still a few teams that threw me off a bit, though.

While I did pick Cleveland to cover the spread against Pittsburgh, I figured the Steelers could manage a victory over the Browns, even as bad as they've been playing lately. I probably should have known better after their games against the Chiefs and Raiders.

And don't even get me started on the Monday night game against Arizona and San Francisco. Seems that every time I start to believe in the Cardinals they go out and lay an egg (no pun intended) against a team they should beat. Similarly, every time I start to write the 49ers off they go out an beat someone they have no business beating.

Of course, the undisputed kings of false promise are the Houston Texans. As has become the tradition in Houston, they are well on their way to an 8-8 season again this year.

But the bigger tradition for the Texans has been looking like a contender one week and looking horrible the next. which makes it practically impossible to pick their games. In fact, I don't know if there is a game this year that I have picked Houston to win that they haven't lost or a game they haven't won when I picked them to lose.

In other news, the Cowboys are in full meltdown mode, Desean Jackson is fast becoming the biggest offensive weapon in the NFL, and concussions don't have to be a part of the football.

Last Week, my record was 11-5 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. That brings my season record up to 128-78 straight up and 106-99-2 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fifteen NFL Games

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Thu, Dec 17	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Indianapolis	@Jacksonville	3.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Sat, Dec 19	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New Orleans	Dallas	7.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
Sun, Dec 20	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New England	Buffalo	7.0	New England	Buffalo
Arizona	@Detroit	11.0	Arizona	Arizona
@Tennessee	Miami	4.0	@Tennessee	Miami
@Kansas City	Cleveland	1.5	Cleveland	Cleveland
Houston	@St. Louis	12.0	Houston	St. Louis
@New York Jets	Atlanta	6.0	New York Jets	Atlanta
@Philadelphia	San Francisco	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Baltimore	Chicago	10.5	Baltimore	Chicago
Sun, Dec 20	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Denver	Oakland	14.0	Denver	Denver
@San Diego	Cincinnati	6.5	San Diego	San Diego
@Pittsburgh	Green Bay	1.5	Green Bay	Green Bay
@Seattle	Tampa Bay	7.0	Seattle	Seattle
Sun, Dec 20	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Minnesota	@Carolina	9.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Mon, Dec 21	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
New York Giants	Washington	3.0	New York Giants	New York Giants

NFL Week Fourteen Picks

I probably should have known better than to jinx myself by bringing up that I had been doing much better on my picks over the past three weeks.

Last week, I ended up taking a bit of step back on the picks. In fact, it might have been my worst week, both picking straight-up winners and picking against the spread. I even got heckled a little bit in the comments.

Of course, it didn't help that there were a bunch of upsets, and Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Oakland, aren't making things easy for me with their up-one-week, and down-the-next styles of play this season.

Plus, I fell for a sucker bet with the 1-15 trend during December. Trends that are that one-sided are usually pretty solid, but I guess, eventually, new trends have to start.

So, for the week, I ended up 7-9 straight up (SU), and an ugly 5-11 against the spread (ATS).

Ultimately, that leaves me with a record of 117-73 straight up, and 97-92-2 against the spread. (READ ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fourteen NFL Games

Thu, Dec 10	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Pittsburgh	@Cleveland	10.0	Pittsburgh	Cleveland
Sun, Dec 13	10:00 AM(PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New Orleans	@Atlanta	10.5	New Orleans	New Orleans
Green Bay	@Chicago	3.0	Green Bay	Chicago
@Indianapolis	Denver	7.0	Indianapolis	@Indianapolis
@Kansas City	Buffalo	0.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
@Minnesota	Cincinnati	6.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@New England	Carolina	13.5	New England	New England
New York Jets	@Tampa Bay	3.0	New York Jets	New York Jets
@Jacksonville	Miami	2.5	Jacksonville	Miami
@Baltimore	Detroit	13.0	Baltimore	Detroit
@Houston	Seattle	6.0	Seattle	Seatte
Sun, Dec 13	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Tennessee	St. Louis	13.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Washington	@Oakland	1.0	Washington	Washington
Dallas	San Diego	3.0	San Diego	San Diego
Sun, Dec 13	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (MST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New York Giants	Philadelphia	1.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Mon, Dec 14	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (M)	8:30 PM (EST)
Arizona	@San Francisco	3.0	Arizona	Arizona

NFL Week Thirteen Picks

Now that the big Monday night clash between the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots is behind us, I think we are about done with matchups of the year at least until the playoffs start. We do still have some potential big games coming up though, such as this weeks Titans-Colts battle.

The Cowboys and Giants game is another that could get a bit heated. Also, the Seahawks-Niners game could be one of those ones like the Titans-Cardinals game that kinda sneaks up on you and turns into a classic.

So in other news, it must be getting close to the end of the season because my pick percentage is getting higher as the weeks go by. As I mentioned in my season preview, I tend to get much better at picking games as the season progresses. Last week I ended up with a 10-6 record straight up (winners) and a 10-5-1 record against the spread. So after twelve weeks, my overall record stands at 110-64 straight up and 92-80-2 against the spread. I'm finally starting to make some headway against the casinos. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Thirteen NFL Games

Sun, Dec. 6	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Philadelphia	@Atlanta	5.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Chicago	St. Louis	9.0	Chicago	St. Louis
@Cincinnati	Detroit	13.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@Indianapolis	Tennessee	6.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Denver	@Kansas City	4.5	Kansas City	Kansas City
New England	@Miami	5.5	New England	New England
@Pittsburgh	Oakland	14.5	Pittsburgh	Oakland
New Orleans	Washington	9.5	New Orleans	Washington
@Carolina	Tampa Bay	6.0	Carolina	Tampa Bay
@Jacksonville	Houston	0.0	Houston	Houston
Sun, Dec. 6	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
San Diego	@Cleveland	13.0	San Diego	San Diego
Dallas	@New York Giants	2.0	Dallas	Dallas
@Seattle	San Francisco	0.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
Sun, Dec 6	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@Arizona	Minnesota	3.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Mon, Dec 7	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
@Green Bay	Baltimore	3.0	Baltimore	Baltimore