NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

This is admittedly somewhat of an unscientific study, but I'm pretty sure me and this guy were the only ones outside of Arizona's fans who picked the Cardinals to beat the Packers last week.

I'm also fairly certain that I'm the only person on the planet who didn't think the big shootout between Arizona and Green Bay was the most amazingly great game ever played in the history of the National Football League.

Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner are undoubtedly great quarterbacks, but the score of that game had a lot more to do with neither team's defense bothering to even pretend they were going to cover receivers or attempt a tackle, once they caught the ball.

My immediate impression wasn't what an exciting game this is, but more along the lines of: if the winner of this game plays like this next week, the Saints are going to be the first NFL team to score 100 points.

Partly because of the way they packed up their tents early at the end of the season, I actually thought New Orleans might be ripe for an upset. However, after last week this has turned into one of the hardest picks of the divisional round and I'm leaning toward the Saints again.

The Cardinals should have enough to make it a close game if they decide to play defense. If not though, it will be over fast.

The one game that did catch me off guard last week was the Ravens beating the Patriots. Not so much the fact that New England lost to Baltimore, but the way they lost. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the playoffs have a way of making the cream rise to the top.

You might be able to overcome injuries and positional weaknesses in the regular season, but once it gets down to the elite few those kind of things get exploited. The bad news for the Ravens is that next week is their turn to be the exploited.

It's probably going to be a somewhat close game, because the Colts have a habit of letting teams hang around until the fourth quarter, but I have very little doubt that Indy will come out on top.

Before last week's games, Rex Ryan countered all the talk of New York not deserving to be in the playoffs by declaring that the Jets should be favored to win the Super Bowl. Then they went out and beat a team they should have beat, which somehow made everyone take that boast seriously.

In spite of the fact that the Bengals limped into the playoffs and missed two easy field goals during the game, a lot of people are suddenly considering the Jets one of the top contenders based on that victory.

As much as I would actually like to see Rex Ryan succeed (I picked the Jets to go to the AFCC in my preseason predictions largely based on him being the coach), I just don't see New York getting past the Chargers. In fact, I think it is going to turn ugly.

Which brings us to the final game between Minnesota and Dallas. There are several keys to this game and I think in the end they all point to one team.

The most obvious of the them is the momentum of each team going into the game.

Much like the Saints, the Vikings stumbled down the stretch. They ended up losing three of their final five games and not looking at all good in those losses.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, come into this game playing as good as they have all season. They've managed to avoid a December collapse and instead have won four straight games including being the first team to beat the Saints.

Another factor that will come into play Sunday is the match-ups and, once again, I think those point mostly one direction.

Teams that have been able to get pressure up front have had success at disrupting the Vikings offense. Unlike early in the season, the offensive line hasn't been doing a very good job of keeping pass rushers off Brett Favre.

Minnesota's other glaring weakness all season has been their defensive backfield. Every game they have played against a top quarter back they have gotten gashed. I expect that trend to continue when Tony Romo, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten come to town.

Similarly, the absence of E.J. Henderson (who was injured in week 13) should leave some room for Felix Jones and Marion Barber to maneuver.

So in case you somehow haven't figured it out yet, I'm picking the Cowboys to come out on top in this game and I won't be at all shocked if they win big.

Last week, my record was 2-2 both straight up and against the spread, with the Jets and Cards each covering on the field and against the number as underdogs. 

My Picks for the 2010 Divisional Playoff Games

Sat, Jan.16	1:30 PM (PST)	2:30 PM (MST)	3:30 PM (CST)	4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@New Orleans	Arizona	7.0	New Orleans	Arizona
Sat, Jan. 16	5:00 PM (PST)	6:00 PM (MST)	7:00 PM (CST)	8:00 PM (EST)
@Indianapolis	Baltimore	6.5	Indianapolis	Baltimore
Sun, Jan 17	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@Minnesota	Dallas	3.0	Dallas	Dallas
Sun, Jan 17	1:40 PM (PST)	2:40 PM (MST)	3:40 PM (CST)	4:40 PM (PST)
@San Diego	New York Jets	7.0	San Diego	San Diego

Is Troy Aikman Right that NFL Players Should Accept Concussions as a Part of Football?

Last week, former Dallas Cowboys Hall of Famer Troy Aikman was quoted as saying,

"At some point I think players have to understand that there are certain risks that are involved, and if you decide that you want to go out and play football, then you've got to understand that part of that means you're going to break some bones and you may have some head injuries. But if you try to eliminate all of those things, then we're no longer playing football."

I don't disagree that players should be prepared for injuries and they have to accept that potential injuries are a part of the game. Nor do I disagree that you can't completely eliminate hard hits and the associated injuries from football without watering the game down and removing the elements that have made it so popular with fans.

Rather, the disagreement lies with the (unintentional*) implication this statement creates that head injuries are an unavoidable part of the game that players just have to accept in order to play. Fact is that there are several steps that could easily be taken to lessen the danger of sustaining a head injury without affecting the on-field play.

Dr. Gerald Maher, the team dentist for the New England Patriots, has designed a mouthpiece that dramatically reduces concussions caused by hits to the jaw. In fact, according to Mayer, this simple device has virtually eliminated concussions of that type for players who have worn them.

The NFL itself has stated that approximately 70% of concussions are caused by blows to the chin. Which is why it is especially puzzling that the NFL has continually rebuffed Dr. Maher's efforts to initiate a relationship with them.

Additionally, in spite of all the rules the NFL has concerning things as mundane as the type of socks a player can wear, they have steadfastly refused to mandate the use of concussion reducing helmets, despite their availability.

There are currently several helmets on the market that incorporate alternative designs in order to reduce factors which contribute to brain injuries. One such helmet, the Riddell Revolution has been proven in independent studies to lesson the risk of concussions by as much as 31%.

Both of these technical advances could potentially eliminate many of the concussions players suffer without eliminating any of the spectacular hits that fans pay to see each week, simply by reducing the amount of force that is transferred to players brains by those impacts.

More importantly in relation to Aikman's comment, are the non equipment-related issues surrounding concussion risk. Just the act of allowing a concussion to heal properly is a major key to avoiding further complications from head trauma. Additionally, it has been shown that returning too soon leaves players even more susceptible to another concussion.

However, the tape it up and get back in there mentality is common among football players. As a result, many players feel pressured to return before they are fully healed or even to not report concussions at all.

Just one example of this was when Brian Westbrook, of the Philadelphia Eagles, attempted to play less than two weeks after sustaining a major concussion against the Redskins. Westbrook subsequently suffered another concussion and has since said that he contemplated retirement, as a result.

As was evident from the negative reactions of their teammates when Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner skipped games after a concussion, that pressure to play at any cost is hardly an isolated situation within the NFL. One of the biggest stumbling blocks to addressing concussion-related issues is the prevalence of those attitudes among the league's players.

Such a mentality isn't so bad when you have a sprained ankle or a broken finger, but it's a lot different when you are talking about brain injuries. Limping in your old age doesn't even begin to compare to not being able to function because your brain is scrambled.

The onus is of course on the National Football League to ensure proper equipment is available and to compel players to use that equipment. A business that generates eight billion dollars a year marketing its players should have the foresight to ensure those players aren't taken out of the game prematurely by injuries that are preventable.

Obviously, the players also have a huge personal stake in preventing unnecessary injuries. Which is all the more reason Troy Aikman, who himself had to retire early because of repeated concussions, should know better than to perpetuate those attitudes which have prevented players from properly dealing with concussion symptoms.

*Aikman was discussing the over-regulation of hits on QB's, rather than concussions, specifically. As stated, this article relates to the implications of his statement, not the actual intent.