Super Bowl XLIV - NFL Playoff Predictions and Picks

The New Orleans Saints are one victory away from justifying my preseason prediction that they would win the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately for them (and possibly for my reputation), the Indianapolis Colts stand in the way of their potential coronation.

I have to admit that I'm a bit conflicted about picking a winner for this game. My heart tells me to take the Saints, but my head says the Colts are the better team.

Judging by what I've seen and read the past couple weeks, I think my personal waffling is a bit of  microcosm of what the rest of the nation is currently feeling. New Orleans is clearly the sentimental favorite, while the consensus of the so-called experts is pretty solidly that Indianapolis will prevail.

When you really get down to it and examine both teams, there's little mystery to why this is the case. In what has been a decidedly unpredictable season, the one consistent factor this year has been the Colts' and Saints' positions atop the league standings. From the very outset, right down to Super Bowl Sunday, both teams have been staring at everyone else through the rear-view mirror. That's pretty much where the similarities end, though.

In fact, this game and its contrasting styles represents a Hollywood cliche come to life. It's the puncher vs. the boxer, the half court offense vs. the fast break press, the home run hitter vs the veteran pitcher, etc.

On the one hand, Indianapolis has carved up opposing teams with a surgical precision. Much of the credit for that is due to the expertise of Peyton Manning. That precision is the calling card of the Colts. They don't call a lot of fancy plays, but the plays they do run are executed with almost mechanical perfection.

On offense, they are much like a pass-based version of the Green Bay offense under Vince Lombardi. The other team knows what is coming, they just can't do anything about it. Their defense is like the other side of the same coin. Rarely is a player out of position and their timing is exquisite. Indy's D just doesn't leave many openings for opponents to exploit.

The polar opposite of the Colts' coldly efficient play is the Saints' all-out daredevil style of attack. The Saints throw everything, including the kitchen sink, at the team lined up on the other side of the field. New Orleans' forte is the big play and they are never short on tricks designed to obscure what might be coming next. Misdirections on offense and forced turnovers on defense combine to keep opponents off balance on both sides of the ball.

In spite of the many differences, there are several important similarities between these two teams. Both have solid offensive lines that have kept their quarterbacks upright all season long. The Colts led the league in least sacks allowed, while the Saints ranked fourth. However, whatever slight advantage that gives Indianapolis could be mitigated by the probable absence of  Dwight Freeney, who was the Colts top pass rusher this season.

Another obvious similarity is the amount of playmakers these two teams have on offense. The reason that nobody has been able to shut these two teams down is that there are so many options to go to.

One final key that I think is being overlooked in this game is the importance of the run game.

The Saints have been dangerous all season long when their three pronged attack of Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mike Bell have been on their game. Less evident though, has been how much they have struggled against teams that have shut down their run game. Without an effective ground game, they are less able to attack down the field.

While it was largely an afterthought during the season, Indy has really stepped it up on the ground as well during the playoffs. If they can play solid run defense against New Orleans and pick up the key yards on offense, they might run away with the game.

In the end, I think this has the potential to be one of the best Super Bowls ever and it's got shootout written all over it.

My Picks

• Take the Points - I would not be surprised at all (and very happy) if the Saints won it outright, but at the very least it should be a close game.
• Bet Your House on the Over - The total is listed as 57 points. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees could both score 29 points in their sleep.
• Put Your Money on "Tails" for the Opening Coin Toss - I always pick tails.

Rex Ryan's Jets vs Peyton Manning's Colts - NFL Playoff Picks: AFC Championship

"Sometimes when you hit the quarterback the whole team feels it" - Rex Ryan

Those would have to be the most telling words spoken during the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

The Chargers certainly felt Philip Rivers' pain as they were pounded into submission and the relentless pressure applied by the Jets ended their Super Bowl hopes.

In order to win this game New York had to turn it into a brawl. They did just that, but there was nothing sweet or scientific about Rex Ryan's game plan.

Anybody who has ever laced up the gloves knows that, while it's the haymakers that make the headlines, the body blows are what set up that eventual kodak moment.

In much the same way, New York used an aggressive attacking defense and a steady run game on offense to wear San Diego down and knock them off of their game. Shonn Greene's 53 yard, fourth quarter TD run served as the final knockout punch.

So can the Jets keep their improbable (or not, since I picked them to play in the AFCC in the preseason) playoff run going against the Colts?

Indianapolis, for their part, had little trouble handling Baltimore in the Divisional round. One of the Raven's few highlights consisted of an eight minute opening drive that allowed them to tie the game at three.

It was all downhill from there for them, thanks in no small part to Baltimore's four turnovers. Ed Reed even managed to fumble the ball during an interception return in the third quarter.

While Peyton Manning played his typical solid, efficient game (30 of 44 for 246 yds), the Colts defense stepped up against the Ravens. Specifically the run defense, which was considered a weakness coming in came up strong, holding Ravens runners to just 87 yards.

Any pretense that Baltimore had of beating Indianapolis was put to rest when Manning connected with Reggie Wayne for his second touchdown just before halftime.

Keys to the Game

The striking thing about this game is the similarities it represents to both teams' divisional round matchups. Indy has a lot in common with San Diego, while New York has much in common with Baltimore.

Both the Colts and Chargers have a high scoring passing offense led by a MVP caliber quarterback that makes up for a anemic running game. Also, both of them rank toward the bottom of the league in run defense, but are pretty solid against the pass. The ability to strike quick through the air is the strength that defines these teams.

At the same time, both the Jets and Ravens have used an efficient running game to compensate for less effective passing games led by quarterbacks that have at times struggled. In addition, each of them have top ranked defenses, which has allowed them to slow the game down and keep the pressure off their offense.

In essence, both of  these teams represent better versions of their respective opponents from the previous week.

In order for the Jets to keep the miracle run going, they will need to dictate the game with their defense and control the ball by running effectively, so that Mark Sanchez doesn't have to win the game. They'll need to pressure Manning and hope Darrelle Ravis and company can force a couple turnovers on defense.

Conversely, the Colts will need to dictate the game with their offense, scoring quickly and avoiding turnovers in order to build an early lead and force the Jets to play catchup. That's probably their best strategy to eliminate the advantage the Jets have with their running game.

If the game turns into a battle between Sanchez and Manning it will be over by halftime just like last week against the Ravens. However if the Jets can turn this into a low scoring, grind it out type of game they stand a decent chance of pulling off another upset.

Indianapolis fans have just barely gotten over the Colts pulling their starters during the week 15 game against the Jets instead of going for an undefeated season. They will really lose their minds if the Jets, who wouldn't have made the playoffs if they had lost that game, came back to beat them in the playoffs.

New York, on the other hand, is playing with house money. They've got nothing to lose at this point, because they were never supposed to be here in the first place. That lack of respect and underestimation is what has fueled their unexpected success.

The Pick

While I doubt the Jets can count on three missed field goals like in the Chargers game or the two misses they benefited from against the Bengals, that's the sort of blind luck that has kept them alive when they seemingly have had no business winning.

Now they are on the cusp of being this year's version of that team that gets hot at the right time and rides that momentum all the way to the Super Bowl.

A lot of people (unjustly) gave them little chance to beat the Bengals, pretty much nobody (including me) expected them to beat the Chargers, and you'd be pretty hard pressed to make a logical case for them to beat the Colts.

However, take the eight points the bookies are giving, because the Jets won't need them. Rex Ryan's defense is going to carry New York all the way to the big game this season.