NFL Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

Before I give this weeks picks I have to say I'm pretty satisfied with my preseason predictions. In fact, I actually picked nine of the 12 playoff teams correctly.

In the AFC, I picked five of the six teams that made it into the playoffs. The one pick I missed was the Bengals. Instead, I had the Titans getting in.

In the NFC, I predicted four out the six eventual playoff teams. The two teams I missed were the Vikings and Cowboys. The two teams I miss-fired with were the Giants and Falcons.

This week's Wildcard matchups feature some of the most unique and bizarre scheduling anomalies to ever happen. Only 11 times in the history of the NFL has the same two teams that played in the final week of the season played each other again in the first round of the playoffs.

So, it's rather unprecedented for three of the four games this weekend to be direct rematches from last week. In fact, even that fourth game is a rematch between the Patriots and Ravens from Week four.

In spite of all the reruns on the Wildcard schedule, I think the games are going to play out quite differently than the first installments. 

In Cincinnati, I believe the game against the Jets is going to be much closer than it was when they played in New York during Week17.

The Bengals didn't go all-out last time, but I still think the Jets are going to come out ahead, because the only real threat on the Bengals offense is Chad OchoCinco and Darrell Revis was able to shut him down.

Plus Cincinnati has lost three out of their last four games and their offense has looked bad doing it. If New York can  minimize Mark Sanchez's mistakes by running the ball and playing solid defense,  they'll get another win against Cincinnati.

In the Cowboys-Eagles matchup, just about everything in the world points to a third strike for Philadelphia. Not only did the Eagles get swept by the Cowboys during the regular season, but their offense completely out of sync in both games.

Since Philly's defense has been pretty average at best all season long, that doesn't really bode well for them. Basically, they've been winning by scoring almost thirty points a game and getting a couple key plays on defense. Neither one of those things has happened in either game against Dallas this year.

However, the one thing the Eagles do have on their side is history. Andy Reid is 7-0 in the opening round of the playoffs. Plus, as everyone knows, the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

So, I'm following the trends and going with the Eagles in a close game. Admittedly though, this is by far my shakiest pick of the week.

In New England, I think the Patriots just have a little too much for the Ravens. Baltimore was less than impressive down the stretch and is one of the weaker teams in the playoffs.

Of course the big question is how much the loss of Wes Welker will cost them. I think not having Welker will hurt their chances of getting to the Super Bowl (which weren't too great in the first place), but they have enough weapons on offense to beat the Ravens without him.

Finally in the Arizona-Green Bay game, I think everybody is putting way too much emphasis on the Packers blowout of the Cardinals last week.

The truth is that Arizona didn't play several of their key starters and Green Bay still had their starters in well into the third quarter, even though they had a comfortable lead.

Being that the Packers were beating up on the Cardinals' JV team, I just don't buy all the talk of the Arizona players being psychologically damaged by the game.

Everybody is picking the Packers as the "hot" team because they won seven of their last eight games. However when you actually look at who they played, the only good team they beat was Dallas and that was back when they weren't playing very well.

This is one game I could see going either way, but I like the Cardinals to pull it out at home.

My Picks for the 2010 Wildcard Playoff Games

Sat, Jan. 9	1:30 PM (PST)	2:30 PM (MST)	3:30 PM (CST)	4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Cincinnati	New York Jets	2.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Sat, Jan. 9	5:00 PM (PST)	6:00 PM (MST)	7:00 PM (CST)	8:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Jan 10	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@New England	Baltimore	3.5	New England	New England
Sun, Jan 10	1:40 PM (PST)	2:40 PM (MST)	3:40 PM (CST)	4:40 PM (PST)
@Arizona	Green Bay	PK	Arizona	Arizona

NFL Week 17 - NFC Picks

We're down to week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games. 

Unlike previous weeks,  I'm going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

Read my AFC picks here.

The NFC Playoff Picture

In the NFC, things are settled as to which teams are in, but there is still a pretty good amount of uncertainty about which teams will end up seeded where. 

Everything comes down to three games, which will decide the second through sixth seeds, with New Orleans having clinched the home-field advantage already. In addition, regardless of what happens, Green Bay will end up with the No. 5 seed.

The easiest of the NFL scenarios also involves what might potentially be the best game of the season featuring the Philadelphia Eagles against the Dallas Cowboys, who are arguably the two best teams in the NFC right now.

It's not very complicated math here; the winner is the NFC East champion, the loser ends up the No. 6 seed. Additionally the Eagles will be the No. 2 seed if they win, while the Cowboys could end up anywhere from the No. 2 to No. 4 spot if they win, depending on whether the Vikings and Cardinals win their respective games. 

Most likely, a Dallas win means a rematch in the first round of the playoffs

This game can easily go either way and I could see either team winning. Having said that, I'm picking the Eagles here. Dallas beat them the first time in week nine, but it was one of the worst games for the Eagles offense and they were still adjusting to being without Brian Westbrook. 

Not only is Westbrook back, but they have had time to adjust to life without him and his presence is an asset rather than a necessity at this point. Philadelphia has scored 31 points a game during their six game win streak, which began two weeks after that first game.

There are, however, two things that could point to trouble for the Eagles. 

One is their defense's propensity to forget about tackling in favor of going for the big play. While this has resulted in a fair amount of turnovers during the season, it has also turned what should be a routine play into a big play for the other team many times.

Another potential problem for the Eagles is the loss of starting center Jamaal Jackson for the season last week against Denver. This could potentially be a big loss, since the Cowboys had four sacks last time they played.

The other big game in the NFC involves the Arizona Cardinals vs. the Green Bay Packers in Arizona. 

For the Cardinals winning this game could put them into position to be the No. 2 seed (if the Vikings and Eagles both lose)  or the No. 3 seed (if the Eagles win and Vikings lose). 

If the Packers should win, more than likely the Cards and Pack will play again in the first round of the playoffs. However, if the Eagles and Giants also win, they would instead play the Vikings for the third time this season. 

Obviously, another rematch against Brett Favre's new team would be huge, but in order for that to happen the New York Giants would have to upset the Minnesota Vikings. 

With the way the Vikings have played the past month, that's not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, if the Giants weren't such a mess right now, I would pick them to beat the Vikings.

I still wouldn't be surprised if New York did win, but they have been less than impressive lately. You just never know which team is going to show up anymore.


Last week they couldn't even keep the game competitive against the Carolina Panthers when they needed a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I don't have a lot of faith that things are going to go much different this week.

Other Games of Interest

Some other games have the possibility to be interesting games even though they don't actually effect the playoff situation. 

New Orleans plays Carolina in a game that essentially means nothing, but could have some significance in light of the fact that the Saints have lost two straight games.

There is some speculation that they will rest their starters, but I expect them to play all out to try to go into the playoffs on a positive note. 

After losing to Tampa Bay last week, I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them lose, however I think the difference in the game will be the loss of Steve Smith for the Panthers last week.

The other game that has some interest in spite of not involving the playoffs is the Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The reason it is relevant is because the Falcons will be trying to finish with a winning record in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. Luckily for them, they are playing the Buccaneers and should be able to pull it off.

Last week, I ended up with a 9-7 record straight up and only 5-11 against the spread. Which leaves me with a season record of 147-90 straight up and 118-118-3 against the spread.

Read my AFC picks here.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen NFC Games

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Sun, Jan 3	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Chicago	@Detroit	3.0	Chicago	Chicago
San Francisco	@St. Louis	7.0	San Francisco	St. Louis
@Minnesota	New York Giants	9.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
Atlanta	@Tampa Bay	2.5	Atlanta	Atlanta
@Carolina	New Orleans	7.5	New Orleans	Carolina
Sun, Jan 3	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Arizona	Green Bay	3.5	Arizona	Green Bay
@San Diego	Washington	4.0	San Diego	San Diego
Tennessee	@Seattle	4.0	Tennessee	Tennessee

NFL Week 15 Picks

For the most part, I got back on track with a positive record last week. There were still a few teams that threw me off a bit, though.

While I did pick Cleveland to cover the spread against Pittsburgh, I figured the Steelers could manage a victory over the Browns, even as bad as they've been playing lately. I probably should have known better after their games against the Chiefs and Raiders.

And don't even get me started on the Monday night game against Arizona and San Francisco. Seems that every time I start to believe in the Cardinals they go out and lay an egg (no pun intended) against a team they should beat. Similarly, every time I start to write the 49ers off they go out an beat someone they have no business beating.

Of course, the undisputed kings of false promise are the Houston Texans. As has become the tradition in Houston, they are well on their way to an 8-8 season again this year.

But the bigger tradition for the Texans has been looking like a contender one week and looking horrible the next. which makes it practically impossible to pick their games. In fact, I don't know if there is a game this year that I have picked Houston to win that they haven't lost or a game they haven't won when I picked them to lose.

In other news, the Cowboys are in full meltdown mode, Desean Jackson is fast becoming the biggest offensive weapon in the NFL, and concussions don't have to be a part of the football.

Last Week, my record was 11-5 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. That brings my season record up to 128-78 straight up and 106-99-2 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fifteen NFL Games

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Thu, Dec 17	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Indianapolis	@Jacksonville	3.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Sat, Dec 19	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New Orleans	Dallas	7.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
Sun, Dec 20	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New England	Buffalo	7.0	New England	Buffalo
Arizona	@Detroit	11.0	Arizona	Arizona
@Tennessee	Miami	4.0	@Tennessee	Miami
@Kansas City	Cleveland	1.5	Cleveland	Cleveland
Houston	@St. Louis	12.0	Houston	St. Louis
@New York Jets	Atlanta	6.0	New York Jets	Atlanta
@Philadelphia	San Francisco	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Baltimore	Chicago	10.5	Baltimore	Chicago
Sun, Dec 20	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Denver	Oakland	14.0	Denver	Denver
@San Diego	Cincinnati	6.5	San Diego	San Diego
@Pittsburgh	Green Bay	1.5	Green Bay	Green Bay
@Seattle	Tampa Bay	7.0	Seattle	Seattle
Sun, Dec 20	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Minnesota	@Carolina	9.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Mon, Dec 21	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
New York Giants	Washington	3.0	New York Giants	New York Giants

NFL Week Fourteen Picks

I probably should have known better than to jinx myself by bringing up that I had been doing much better on my picks over the past three weeks.

Last week, I ended up taking a bit of step back on the picks. In fact, it might have been my worst week, both picking straight-up winners and picking against the spread. I even got heckled a little bit in the comments.

Of course, it didn't help that there were a bunch of upsets, and Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Oakland, aren't making things easy for me with their up-one-week, and down-the-next styles of play this season.

Plus, I fell for a sucker bet with the 1-15 trend during December. Trends that are that one-sided are usually pretty solid, but I guess, eventually, new trends have to start.

So, for the week, I ended up 7-9 straight up (SU), and an ugly 5-11 against the spread (ATS).

Ultimately, that leaves me with a record of 117-73 straight up, and 97-92-2 against the spread. (READ ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fourteen NFL Games

Thu, Dec 10	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Pittsburgh	@Cleveland	10.0	Pittsburgh	Cleveland
Sun, Dec 13	10:00 AM(PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New Orleans	@Atlanta	10.5	New Orleans	New Orleans
Green Bay	@Chicago	3.0	Green Bay	Chicago
@Indianapolis	Denver	7.0	Indianapolis	@Indianapolis
@Kansas City	Buffalo	0.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
@Minnesota	Cincinnati	6.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@New England	Carolina	13.5	New England	New England
New York Jets	@Tampa Bay	3.0	New York Jets	New York Jets
@Jacksonville	Miami	2.5	Jacksonville	Miami
@Baltimore	Detroit	13.0	Baltimore	Detroit
@Houston	Seattle	6.0	Seattle	Seatte
Sun, Dec 13	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Tennessee	St. Louis	13.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Washington	@Oakland	1.0	Washington	Washington
Dallas	San Diego	3.0	San Diego	San Diego
Sun, Dec 13	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (MST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New York Giants	Philadelphia	1.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Mon, Dec 14	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (M)	8:30 PM (EST)
Arizona	@San Francisco	3.0	Arizona	Arizona

Unlucky No. 13 for Brett Favre and the Vikings?

Last year, the New York Jets followed up a victory over the New England Patriots with a convincing 34-13 victory over the previously undefeated Tennessee Titans. The Jets were flying high with many of the experts picking them to win the Super Bowl. At that point, it was universally accepted that New York was one of the top teams in the NFL and you would get few arguments from anyone, if you credited a certain ex-Packer QB with making the difference.

Then came week 13 against the Denver Broncos. This time it was the Jets who were beaten convincingly in a 34-17 loss, featuring two turnovers by Brett Favre. They would go on to lose four of their final five games and miss the playoffs entirely. What's more, during that stretch Favre threw nine interceptions and only two touchdowns.

So, is it just a coincidence that Brett Favre fell apart again in week 13 this season? Or is it a dark omen for the Vikings? Favre had been playing much better than he ever did in New York. In fact up to this point, he was having the best season of his career. However, this game would easily rank as one of the worst of his long career. He easily could have thrown four interceptions instead of the two he did throw. At times, he seemed completely confused and missed open receivers.

Undoubtedly, there is much blame to go around for this loss. Offensively, the lack of a running game and the uncharacteristically leaky pass protection that left Favre exposed to opposing pass rushers for the first time this season. On defense, a defensive backfield that has been suspect all season (I predicted this would be a big test for them during my picks) and a D-line that couldn't get any pressure for the first time this season. All of them played a part in this loss much like they played a part in Minnesota's great start.

Maybe this was just an off night or a case of the Vikings' weak schedule finally catching up to them. On the other hand, is this a case of deja vu (all over again) and that oh so unlucky number thirteen again? Do the Vikings have reason to develop a case of triskaidekaphobia?

NFL Week Thirteen Picks

Now that the big Monday night clash between the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots is behind us, I think we are about done with matchups of the year at least until the playoffs start. We do still have some potential big games coming up though, such as this weeks Titans-Colts battle.

The Cowboys and Giants game is another that could get a bit heated. Also, the Seahawks-Niners game could be one of those ones like the Titans-Cardinals game that kinda sneaks up on you and turns into a classic.

So in other news, it must be getting close to the end of the season because my pick percentage is getting higher as the weeks go by. As I mentioned in my season preview, I tend to get much better at picking games as the season progresses. Last week I ended up with a 10-6 record straight up (winners) and a 10-5-1 record against the spread. So after twelve weeks, my overall record stands at 110-64 straight up and 92-80-2 against the spread. I'm finally starting to make some headway against the casinos. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Thirteen NFL Games

Sun, Dec. 6	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Philadelphia	@Atlanta	5.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Chicago	St. Louis	9.0	Chicago	St. Louis
@Cincinnati	Detroit	13.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@Indianapolis	Tennessee	6.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Denver	@Kansas City	4.5	Kansas City	Kansas City
New England	@Miami	5.5	New England	New England
@Pittsburgh	Oakland	14.5	Pittsburgh	Oakland
New Orleans	Washington	9.5	New Orleans	Washington
@Carolina	Tampa Bay	6.0	Carolina	Tampa Bay
@Jacksonville	Houston	0.0	Houston	Houston
Sun, Dec. 6	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
San Diego	@Cleveland	13.0	San Diego	San Diego
Dallas	@New York Giants	2.0	Dallas	Dallas
@Seattle	San Francisco	0.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
Sun, Dec 6	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@Arizona	Minnesota	3.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Mon, Dec 7	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
@Green Bay	Baltimore	3.0	Baltimore	Baltimore

My Picks for Superbowl XLIII

Okay, maybe I got a little cocky after my near perfect week during the Divisional Round and picked both #6 seeds to win the Conference Championships, in spite of this being the first time that two no. 6's had ever gotten one game away from the Superbowl.

So, my 0-2 record dropped me back down to where I was after the Wildcard Round leaving me 5-5 straight up and also 5-5 against the spread.

I'm done overlooking the Cardinals though and I think they have a real shot to win the whole thing. This has actually been one of the best playoffs in a long time and I think this game will follow that trend.

It would be hard for it to surpass last year with the Giants' huge upset of the undefeated Patriots (which I predicted with the correct score even), but it should be a great one. So pull out some good snacks, grab a chair, and let's get this thing started.

Since this is the final game 'til September, I decided to throw in a few extra picks rather than just picking who will win and who will cover the point spread. I'm also picking the result of the opening coin flip, the over/under, and the MVP. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks:

The Opening Coin Flip

My pick: Tails

The Over/Under - 46 1/2 points

My pick: Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers ( -7 ) vs. the Arizona Cardinals

SU: Arizona Cardinals

ATS: Arizona Cardinals

The Superbowl MVP

My pick: Kurt Warner

Weekly Record:

SU: 0-1

ATS: 0-1

The Coin Toss: 0-1

The Over/Under: 1-0

The MVP: Santonio Holmes

Final Overall Record:

SU: 5-6

ATS: 6-5