NFL Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

Before I give this weeks picks I have to say I'm pretty satisfied with my preseason predictions. In fact, I actually picked nine of the 12 playoff teams correctly.

In the AFC, I picked five of the six teams that made it into the playoffs. The one pick I missed was the Bengals. Instead, I had the Titans getting in.

In the NFC, I predicted four out the six eventual playoff teams. The two teams I missed were the Vikings and Cowboys. The two teams I miss-fired with were the Giants and Falcons.

This week's Wildcard matchups feature some of the most unique and bizarre scheduling anomalies to ever happen. Only 11 times in the history of the NFL has the same two teams that played in the final week of the season played each other again in the first round of the playoffs.

So, it's rather unprecedented for three of the four games this weekend to be direct rematches from last week. In fact, even that fourth game is a rematch between the Patriots and Ravens from Week four.

In spite of all the reruns on the Wildcard schedule, I think the games are going to play out quite differently than the first installments. 

In Cincinnati, I believe the game against the Jets is going to be much closer than it was when they played in New York during Week17.

The Bengals didn't go all-out last time, but I still think the Jets are going to come out ahead, because the only real threat on the Bengals offense is Chad OchoCinco and Darrell Revis was able to shut him down.

Plus Cincinnati has lost three out of their last four games and their offense has looked bad doing it. If New York can  minimize Mark Sanchez's mistakes by running the ball and playing solid defense,  they'll get another win against Cincinnati.

In the Cowboys-Eagles matchup, just about everything in the world points to a third strike for Philadelphia. Not only did the Eagles get swept by the Cowboys during the regular season, but their offense completely out of sync in both games.

Since Philly's defense has been pretty average at best all season long, that doesn't really bode well for them. Basically, they've been winning by scoring almost thirty points a game and getting a couple key plays on defense. Neither one of those things has happened in either game against Dallas this year.

However, the one thing the Eagles do have on their side is history. Andy Reid is 7-0 in the opening round of the playoffs. Plus, as everyone knows, the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

So, I'm following the trends and going with the Eagles in a close game. Admittedly though, this is by far my shakiest pick of the week.

In New England, I think the Patriots just have a little too much for the Ravens. Baltimore was less than impressive down the stretch and is one of the weaker teams in the playoffs.

Of course the big question is how much the loss of Wes Welker will cost them. I think not having Welker will hurt their chances of getting to the Super Bowl (which weren't too great in the first place), but they have enough weapons on offense to beat the Ravens without him.

Finally in the Arizona-Green Bay game, I think everybody is putting way too much emphasis on the Packers blowout of the Cardinals last week.

The truth is that Arizona didn't play several of their key starters and Green Bay still had their starters in well into the third quarter, even though they had a comfortable lead.

Being that the Packers were beating up on the Cardinals' JV team, I just don't buy all the talk of the Arizona players being psychologically damaged by the game.

Everybody is picking the Packers as the "hot" team because they won seven of their last eight games. However when you actually look at who they played, the only good team they beat was Dallas and that was back when they weren't playing very well.

This is one game I could see going either way, but I like the Cardinals to pull it out at home.

My Picks for the 2010 Wildcard Playoff Games

Sat, Jan. 9	1:30 PM (PST)	2:30 PM (MST)	3:30 PM (CST)	4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Cincinnati	New York Jets	2.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Sat, Jan. 9	5:00 PM (PST)	6:00 PM (MST)	7:00 PM (CST)	8:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Jan 10	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@New England	Baltimore	3.5	New England	New England
Sun, Jan 10	1:40 PM (PST)	2:40 PM (MST)	3:40 PM (CST)	4:40 PM (PST)
@Arizona	Green Bay	PK	Arizona	Arizona

Is Troy Aikman Right that NFL Players Should Accept Concussions as a Part of Football?

Last week, former Dallas Cowboys Hall of Famer Troy Aikman was quoted as saying,

"At some point I think players have to understand that there are certain risks that are involved, and if you decide that you want to go out and play football, then you've got to understand that part of that means you're going to break some bones and you may have some head injuries. But if you try to eliminate all of those things, then we're no longer playing football."

I don't disagree that players should be prepared for injuries and they have to accept that potential injuries are a part of the game. Nor do I disagree that you can't completely eliminate hard hits and the associated injuries from football without watering the game down and removing the elements that have made it so popular with fans.

Rather, the disagreement lies with the (unintentional*) implication this statement creates that head injuries are an unavoidable part of the game that players just have to accept in order to play. Fact is that there are several steps that could easily be taken to lessen the danger of sustaining a head injury without affecting the on-field play.

Dr. Gerald Maher, the team dentist for the New England Patriots, has designed a mouthpiece that dramatically reduces concussions caused by hits to the jaw. In fact, according to Mayer, this simple device has virtually eliminated concussions of that type for players who have worn them.

The NFL itself has stated that approximately 70% of concussions are caused by blows to the chin. Which is why it is especially puzzling that the NFL has continually rebuffed Dr. Maher's efforts to initiate a relationship with them.

Additionally, in spite of all the rules the NFL has concerning things as mundane as the type of socks a player can wear, they have steadfastly refused to mandate the use of concussion reducing helmets, despite their availability.

There are currently several helmets on the market that incorporate alternative designs in order to reduce factors which contribute to brain injuries. One such helmet, the Riddell Revolution has been proven in independent studies to lesson the risk of concussions by as much as 31%.

Both of these technical advances could potentially eliminate many of the concussions players suffer without eliminating any of the spectacular hits that fans pay to see each week, simply by reducing the amount of force that is transferred to players brains by those impacts.

More importantly in relation to Aikman's comment, are the non equipment-related issues surrounding concussion risk. Just the act of allowing a concussion to heal properly is a major key to avoiding further complications from head trauma. Additionally, it has been shown that returning too soon leaves players even more susceptible to another concussion.

However, the tape it up and get back in there mentality is common among football players. As a result, many players feel pressured to return before they are fully healed or even to not report concussions at all.

Just one example of this was when Brian Westbrook, of the Philadelphia Eagles, attempted to play less than two weeks after sustaining a major concussion against the Redskins. Westbrook subsequently suffered another concussion and has since said that he contemplated retirement, as a result.

As was evident from the negative reactions of their teammates when Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner skipped games after a concussion, that pressure to play at any cost is hardly an isolated situation within the NFL. One of the biggest stumbling blocks to addressing concussion-related issues is the prevalence of those attitudes among the league's players.

Such a mentality isn't so bad when you have a sprained ankle or a broken finger, but it's a lot different when you are talking about brain injuries. Limping in your old age doesn't even begin to compare to not being able to function because your brain is scrambled.

The onus is of course on the National Football League to ensure proper equipment is available and to compel players to use that equipment. A business that generates eight billion dollars a year marketing its players should have the foresight to ensure those players aren't taken out of the game prematurely by injuries that are preventable.

Obviously, the players also have a huge personal stake in preventing unnecessary injuries. Which is all the more reason Troy Aikman, who himself had to retire early because of repeated concussions, should know better than to perpetuate those attitudes which have prevented players from properly dealing with concussion symptoms.

*Aikman was discussing the over-regulation of hits on QB's, rather than concussions, specifically. As stated, this article relates to the implications of his statement, not the actual intent.

NFL Week Fourteen Picks

I probably should have known better than to jinx myself by bringing up that I had been doing much better on my picks over the past three weeks.

Last week, I ended up taking a bit of step back on the picks. In fact, it might have been my worst week, both picking straight-up winners and picking against the spread. I even got heckled a little bit in the comments.

Of course, it didn't help that there were a bunch of upsets, and Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Oakland, aren't making things easy for me with their up-one-week, and down-the-next styles of play this season.

Plus, I fell for a sucker bet with the 1-15 trend during December. Trends that are that one-sided are usually pretty solid, but I guess, eventually, new trends have to start.

So, for the week, I ended up 7-9 straight up (SU), and an ugly 5-11 against the spread (ATS).

Ultimately, that leaves me with a record of 117-73 straight up, and 97-92-2 against the spread. (READ ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Fourteen NFL Games

Thu, Dec 10	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Pittsburgh	@Cleveland	10.0	Pittsburgh	Cleveland
Sun, Dec 13	10:00 AM(PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
New Orleans	@Atlanta	10.5	New Orleans	New Orleans
Green Bay	@Chicago	3.0	Green Bay	Chicago
@Indianapolis	Denver	7.0	Indianapolis	@Indianapolis
@Kansas City	Buffalo	0.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
@Minnesota	Cincinnati	6.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@New England	Carolina	13.5	New England	New England
New York Jets	@Tampa Bay	3.0	New York Jets	New York Jets
@Jacksonville	Miami	2.5	Jacksonville	Miami
@Baltimore	Detroit	13.0	Baltimore	Detroit
@Houston	Seattle	6.0	Seattle	Seatte
Sun, Dec 13	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Tennessee	St. Louis	13.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Washington	@Oakland	1.0	Washington	Washington
Dallas	San Diego	3.0	San Diego	San Diego
Sun, Dec 13	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (MST)	8:20 PM (EST)
@New York Giants	Philadelphia	1.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Mon, Dec 14	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (M)	8:30 PM (EST)
Arizona	@San Francisco	3.0	Arizona	Arizona

Unlucky No. 13 for Brett Favre and the Vikings?

Last year, the New York Jets followed up a victory over the New England Patriots with a convincing 34-13 victory over the previously undefeated Tennessee Titans. The Jets were flying high with many of the experts picking them to win the Super Bowl. At that point, it was universally accepted that New York was one of the top teams in the NFL and you would get few arguments from anyone, if you credited a certain ex-Packer QB with making the difference.

Then came week 13 against the Denver Broncos. This time it was the Jets who were beaten convincingly in a 34-17 loss, featuring two turnovers by Brett Favre. They would go on to lose four of their final five games and miss the playoffs entirely. What's more, during that stretch Favre threw nine interceptions and only two touchdowns.

So, is it just a coincidence that Brett Favre fell apart again in week 13 this season? Or is it a dark omen for the Vikings? Favre had been playing much better than he ever did in New York. In fact up to this point, he was having the best season of his career. However, this game would easily rank as one of the worst of his long career. He easily could have thrown four interceptions instead of the two he did throw. At times, he seemed completely confused and missed open receivers.

Undoubtedly, there is much blame to go around for this loss. Offensively, the lack of a running game and the uncharacteristically leaky pass protection that left Favre exposed to opposing pass rushers for the first time this season. On defense, a defensive backfield that has been suspect all season (I predicted this would be a big test for them during my picks) and a D-line that couldn't get any pressure for the first time this season. All of them played a part in this loss much like they played a part in Minnesota's great start.

Maybe this was just an off night or a case of the Vikings' weak schedule finally catching up to them. On the other hand, is this a case of deja vu (all over again) and that oh so unlucky number thirteen again? Do the Vikings have reason to develop a case of triskaidekaphobia?