NFL Playoff Picks: Wildcard Round

Before I give this weeks picks I have to say I'm pretty satisfied with my preseason predictions. In fact, I actually picked nine of the 12 playoff teams correctly.

In the AFC, I picked five of the six teams that made it into the playoffs. The one pick I missed was the Bengals. Instead, I had the Titans getting in.

In the NFC, I predicted four out the six eventual playoff teams. The two teams I missed were the Vikings and Cowboys. The two teams I miss-fired with were the Giants and Falcons.

This week's Wildcard matchups feature some of the most unique and bizarre scheduling anomalies to ever happen. Only 11 times in the history of the NFL has the same two teams that played in the final week of the season played each other again in the first round of the playoffs.

So, it's rather unprecedented for three of the four games this weekend to be direct rematches from last week. In fact, even that fourth game is a rematch between the Patriots and Ravens from Week four.

In spite of all the reruns on the Wildcard schedule, I think the games are going to play out quite differently than the first installments. 

In Cincinnati, I believe the game against the Jets is going to be much closer than it was when they played in New York during Week17.

The Bengals didn't go all-out last time, but I still think the Jets are going to come out ahead, because the only real threat on the Bengals offense is Chad OchoCinco and Darrell Revis was able to shut him down.

Plus Cincinnati has lost three out of their last four games and their offense has looked bad doing it. If New York can  minimize Mark Sanchez's mistakes by running the ball and playing solid defense,  they'll get another win against Cincinnati.

In the Cowboys-Eagles matchup, just about everything in the world points to a third strike for Philadelphia. Not only did the Eagles get swept by the Cowboys during the regular season, but their offense completely out of sync in both games.

Since Philly's defense has been pretty average at best all season long, that doesn't really bode well for them. Basically, they've been winning by scoring almost thirty points a game and getting a couple key plays on defense. Neither one of those things has happened in either game against Dallas this year.

However, the one thing the Eagles do have on their side is history. Andy Reid is 7-0 in the opening round of the playoffs. Plus, as everyone knows, the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

So, I'm following the trends and going with the Eagles in a close game. Admittedly though, this is by far my shakiest pick of the week.

In New England, I think the Patriots just have a little too much for the Ravens. Baltimore was less than impressive down the stretch and is one of the weaker teams in the playoffs.

Of course the big question is how much the loss of Wes Welker will cost them. I think not having Welker will hurt their chances of getting to the Super Bowl (which weren't too great in the first place), but they have enough weapons on offense to beat the Ravens without him.

Finally in the Arizona-Green Bay game, I think everybody is putting way too much emphasis on the Packers blowout of the Cardinals last week.

The truth is that Arizona didn't play several of their key starters and Green Bay still had their starters in well into the third quarter, even though they had a comfortable lead.

Being that the Packers were beating up on the Cardinals' JV team, I just don't buy all the talk of the Arizona players being psychologically damaged by the game.

Everybody is picking the Packers as the "hot" team because they won seven of their last eight games. However when you actually look at who they played, the only good team they beat was Dallas and that was back when they weren't playing very well.

This is one game I could see going either way, but I like the Cardinals to pull it out at home.

My Picks for the 2010 Wildcard Playoff Games

Sat, Jan. 9	1:30 PM (PST)	2:30 PM (MST)	3:30 PM (CST)	4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Cincinnati	New York Jets	2.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Sat, Jan. 9	5:00 PM (PST)	6:00 PM (MST)	7:00 PM (CST)	8:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Jan 10	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@New England	Baltimore	3.5	New England	New England
Sun, Jan 10	1:40 PM (PST)	2:40 PM (MST)	3:40 PM (CST)	4:40 PM (PST)
@Arizona	Green Bay	PK	Arizona	Arizona

NFL Week 17 - NFC Picks

We're down to week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games. 

Unlike previous weeks,  I'm going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

Read my AFC picks here.

The NFC Playoff Picture

In the NFC, things are settled as to which teams are in, but there is still a pretty good amount of uncertainty about which teams will end up seeded where. 

Everything comes down to three games, which will decide the second through sixth seeds, with New Orleans having clinched the home-field advantage already. In addition, regardless of what happens, Green Bay will end up with the No. 5 seed.

The easiest of the NFL scenarios also involves what might potentially be the best game of the season featuring the Philadelphia Eagles against the Dallas Cowboys, who are arguably the two best teams in the NFC right now.

It's not very complicated math here; the winner is the NFC East champion, the loser ends up the No. 6 seed. Additionally the Eagles will be the No. 2 seed if they win, while the Cowboys could end up anywhere from the No. 2 to No. 4 spot if they win, depending on whether the Vikings and Cardinals win their respective games. 

Most likely, a Dallas win means a rematch in the first round of the playoffs

This game can easily go either way and I could see either team winning. Having said that, I'm picking the Eagles here. Dallas beat them the first time in week nine, but it was one of the worst games for the Eagles offense and they were still adjusting to being without Brian Westbrook. 

Not only is Westbrook back, but they have had time to adjust to life without him and his presence is an asset rather than a necessity at this point. Philadelphia has scored 31 points a game during their six game win streak, which began two weeks after that first game.

There are, however, two things that could point to trouble for the Eagles. 

One is their defense's propensity to forget about tackling in favor of going for the big play. While this has resulted in a fair amount of turnovers during the season, it has also turned what should be a routine play into a big play for the other team many times.

Another potential problem for the Eagles is the loss of starting center Jamaal Jackson for the season last week against Denver. This could potentially be a big loss, since the Cowboys had four sacks last time they played.

The other big game in the NFC involves the Arizona Cardinals vs. the Green Bay Packers in Arizona. 

For the Cardinals winning this game could put them into position to be the No. 2 seed (if the Vikings and Eagles both lose)  or the No. 3 seed (if the Eagles win and Vikings lose). 

If the Packers should win, more than likely the Cards and Pack will play again in the first round of the playoffs. However, if the Eagles and Giants also win, they would instead play the Vikings for the third time this season. 

Obviously, another rematch against Brett Favre's new team would be huge, but in order for that to happen the New York Giants would have to upset the Minnesota Vikings. 

With the way the Vikings have played the past month, that's not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, if the Giants weren't such a mess right now, I would pick them to beat the Vikings.

I still wouldn't be surprised if New York did win, but they have been less than impressive lately. You just never know which team is going to show up anymore.


Last week they couldn't even keep the game competitive against the Carolina Panthers when they needed a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I don't have a lot of faith that things are going to go much different this week.

Other Games of Interest

Some other games have the possibility to be interesting games even though they don't actually effect the playoff situation. 

New Orleans plays Carolina in a game that essentially means nothing, but could have some significance in light of the fact that the Saints have lost two straight games.

There is some speculation that they will rest their starters, but I expect them to play all out to try to go into the playoffs on a positive note. 

After losing to Tampa Bay last week, I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them lose, however I think the difference in the game will be the loss of Steve Smith for the Panthers last week.

The other game that has some interest in spite of not involving the playoffs is the Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The reason it is relevant is because the Falcons will be trying to finish with a winning record in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. Luckily for them, they are playing the Buccaneers and should be able to pull it off.

Last week, I ended up with a 9-7 record straight up and only 5-11 against the spread. Which leaves me with a season record of 147-90 straight up and 118-118-3 against the spread.

Read my AFC picks here.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen NFC Games

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Sun, Jan 3	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Chicago	@Detroit	3.0	Chicago	Chicago
San Francisco	@St. Louis	7.0	San Francisco	St. Louis
@Minnesota	New York Giants	9.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
Atlanta	@Tampa Bay	2.5	Atlanta	Atlanta
@Carolina	New Orleans	7.5	New Orleans	Carolina
Sun, Jan 3	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas	Philadelphia	3.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
@Arizona	Green Bay	3.5	Arizona	Green Bay
@San Diego	Washington	4.0	San Diego	San Diego
Tennessee	@Seattle	4.0	Tennessee	Tennessee

NFL Week 16 Picks

I'm usually not a morning person, but things got off to a fast start with my straight up picks last week .

In the early games, I won seven out of eight. Which means I hit eight out of the first 10 games counting the Thursday and Saturday games.

Things didn't quite go as well in the afternoon however and I ended up finishing with a respectable, but not spectacular, 10-6 weekly record picking straight up.

It was also a bit rougher against the spread. For the week, I had a 7-8-1 record against the bookies.

It actually could have been better. I thought about switching my picks for the Dallas and Carolina games, because I had a feeling they might be close.

Unfortunately, I backed out and it cost me, since both of them not only covered, but won as underdogs. I guess that just goes to show you that betting isn't for the faint of heart.

As long as we are talking about those upsets last week , what significance will they have on this week's games? In the grand scheme of things, probably not much.

For the Saints, if anything, it is a good thing they lost. With the exception of the Patriots game they have been coasting since week seven. This will probably serve s a badly needed wake up call going into the playoffs.

As is typical for the Cowboys, they came up big in a game few people expected them to win. The other thing they typically do is lose a big game they are supposed to easily win right after that kind of win.

That and the fact there is a huge chance for them to be looking ahead to the Eagles game next week is why I am picking them to lose to the Redskins this week.

It's admittedly hard to put a lot of faith in Washington after the way they laid down against the Giants last week, but this pick is based more on the Cowboys than the Redskins.

In regards to the Vikings, all you can really say is what a difference a few weeks makes. At this time four weeks ago, it was a foregone conclusion that the Vikings had the No. two seed sewn up and were a legitimate threat to grab the home field advantage away from the Saints.

Many people were even arguing that the Vikings were the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.

Since then, Minnesota has lost two out of three games and word has leaked out about internal strife between Brett Favre, who has begun looking very ordinary, and Coach Brad Childress. At this point, they are even in danger of losing the No. two seed to the Eagles.

Things may get very interesting for the Vikings even though I'm pretty hard pressed to envision them losing to Chicago and the turnover machine they mortgaged their future to get from Denver (Jay Cutler).

My other big upset pick this week is the Titans over the Chargers. By all rights the Chargers should win this game, but I just have one of those feelings about the Titans.

In fact, there are going to have to be a lot of stars aligning just right over the next two weeks, but I think somehow, someway Tennessee is going to make it into the playoffs. Call it a Christmas miracle, but I believe in them.

For the year, my record now stands at 138-83 straight up and 113-107-3 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Sixteen NFL Games

Click edit above to add content to this empty capsule.

Fri, Dec 25	4:30 PM (PST)	5:30 PM (MST)	6:30 PM (CST)	7:30 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
@Tennessee	San Diego	3.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Sun, Dec 27	10:00AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
@Atlanta	Buffalo	9.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
@Cincinnati	Kansas City	13.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
@Cleveland	Oakland	3.5	Cleveland	Oakland
@Green Bay	Seattle	14.0	Green Bay	Green Bay
@Miami	Houston	3.0	Houston	Houston
@New England	Jacksonville	8.0	New England	New England
@New Orleans	Tampa Bay	14.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
@New York Giants	Carolina	7.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
@Pittsburgh	Baltimore	2.5	Pittsburgh	Baltimore
Sun, Dec 27	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
@Arizona	St. Louis	14.0	Arizona	Arizona
@San Francisco	Detroit	12.5	San Francisco	Detroit
@Indianapolis	New York Jets	5.5	Indianapolis	New York Jets
@Philadelphia	Denver	7.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Sun, Dec 27	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Dallas	@Washington	6.5	Washington	Washington
Mon, Dec 28	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
Minnesota	Chicago	7.0	Minnesota	Minnesota

DeSean Jackson is for the Eagles Everything TO Could Have Been and More

For as long as Donovan Mcnabb has been in Philadelphia, the prevailing complaint among fans has been the lack of quality receivers.

Prior to last season, the lone exception to that rule was the 2004 season, when Terrell Owens came to town and the Eagles rode the Mcnabb/TO connection all the way to the Super Bowl.

Of course, the very next season, amid injuries to Mcnabb and the familiar antics by Owens, things quickly fell apart

Soon, TO was in Dallas and Eagles' backers were once again bemoaning a lack of talent among Philly's pass catching corps. Even Mcnabb himself complained on his personal blog during the offseason in 2008 about the lack of playmakers on the Eagles' offense.

Perhaps as a result of that, Philadelphia drafted DeSean Jackson in the second round three months later. And to slightly paraphrase a saying, the rest is quickly becoming history.

After a solid rookie season in which he showed plenty of potential, Jackson has fully blossomed into arguably the top playmaker in the league.

In the process, he is not only providing a glimpse into what could have been, but even threatening to totally eclipse that one great season Mcnabb and TO shared.

Their styles are clearly different. DeSean Jackson is a skinny speedster who can leave defenders holding nothing but air, having tied the record (8) for TD's of 50+ yards with two games remaining.

Terrell Owens is 5 inches taller (6'3") and fifty pounds heavier (224) than Jackson. While he is by no means slow, his ability to break tackles can turn a routine catch into a long gain.

However, outside of the obvious physical differences, there are plenty of similarities between the two. Not the least of which is their ability to score anytime they get the ball in their hands.

Beyond that, the stats Jackson has accumulated thus far in his breakout sophomore year are actually pretty comparable to TO's one full season in Philadelphia.

In 13 games this season, Jackson has caught 56 passes for 1,087 yards. In 2004, Owens collected 77 passes for an even 1,200 yards in 14 games. That translates to 83.6 ypg for Jackson vs. 85.7 ypg for TO.

The one sizable advantage that TO has in that comparison is that he scored 14 receiving TD's, while Jackson has found the end zone 8 times on passing plays.

However, when you factor in Jackson's rushing and punt return plays, the additional 3 touchdowns and 549 all purpose yards more than even things out.

More importantly, Jackson has already exceeded Owens' 21 game tenure in green. And unlike TO's now famous second season blow-up, which precipitated that short stay, DeSean Jackson has been a consummate teammate thus far.

Provided that doesn't change anytime soon, Jackson is just scratching the surface of what should be a long and epic career as an Eagle.

Meanwhile, Terrell Owens is in the process of fading way up in Buffalo, having squandered what easily could have been a great opportunity in Philadelphia.

It's only a matter of time before "who?" is more than just a sarcastic response to references to TO among Philly faithful. Mcnabb and the Eagles finally have a top playmaker.

Is Troy Aikman Right that NFL Players Should Accept Concussions as a Part of Football?

Last week, former Dallas Cowboys Hall of Famer Troy Aikman was quoted as saying,

"At some point I think players have to understand that there are certain risks that are involved, and if you decide that you want to go out and play football, then you've got to understand that part of that means you're going to break some bones and you may have some head injuries. But if you try to eliminate all of those things, then we're no longer playing football."

I don't disagree that players should be prepared for injuries and they have to accept that potential injuries are a part of the game. Nor do I disagree that you can't completely eliminate hard hits and the associated injuries from football without watering the game down and removing the elements that have made it so popular with fans.

Rather, the disagreement lies with the (unintentional*) implication this statement creates that head injuries are an unavoidable part of the game that players just have to accept in order to play. Fact is that there are several steps that could easily be taken to lessen the danger of sustaining a head injury without affecting the on-field play.

Dr. Gerald Maher, the team dentist for the New England Patriots, has designed a mouthpiece that dramatically reduces concussions caused by hits to the jaw. In fact, according to Mayer, this simple device has virtually eliminated concussions of that type for players who have worn them.

The NFL itself has stated that approximately 70% of concussions are caused by blows to the chin. Which is why it is especially puzzling that the NFL has continually rebuffed Dr. Maher's efforts to initiate a relationship with them.

Additionally, in spite of all the rules the NFL has concerning things as mundane as the type of socks a player can wear, they have steadfastly refused to mandate the use of concussion reducing helmets, despite their availability.

There are currently several helmets on the market that incorporate alternative designs in order to reduce factors which contribute to brain injuries. One such helmet, the Riddell Revolution has been proven in independent studies to lesson the risk of concussions by as much as 31%.

Both of these technical advances could potentially eliminate many of the concussions players suffer without eliminating any of the spectacular hits that fans pay to see each week, simply by reducing the amount of force that is transferred to players brains by those impacts.

More importantly in relation to Aikman's comment, are the non equipment-related issues surrounding concussion risk. Just the act of allowing a concussion to heal properly is a major key to avoiding further complications from head trauma. Additionally, it has been shown that returning too soon leaves players even more susceptible to another concussion.

However, the tape it up and get back in there mentality is common among football players. As a result, many players feel pressured to return before they are fully healed or even to not report concussions at all.

Just one example of this was when Brian Westbrook, of the Philadelphia Eagles, attempted to play less than two weeks after sustaining a major concussion against the Redskins. Westbrook subsequently suffered another concussion and has since said that he contemplated retirement, as a result.

As was evident from the negative reactions of their teammates when Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner skipped games after a concussion, that pressure to play at any cost is hardly an isolated situation within the NFL. One of the biggest stumbling blocks to addressing concussion-related issues is the prevalence of those attitudes among the league's players.

Such a mentality isn't so bad when you have a sprained ankle or a broken finger, but it's a lot different when you are talking about brain injuries. Limping in your old age doesn't even begin to compare to not being able to function because your brain is scrambled.

The onus is of course on the National Football League to ensure proper equipment is available and to compel players to use that equipment. A business that generates eight billion dollars a year marketing its players should have the foresight to ensure those players aren't taken out of the game prematurely by injuries that are preventable.

Obviously, the players also have a huge personal stake in preventing unnecessary injuries. Which is all the more reason Troy Aikman, who himself had to retire early because of repeated concussions, should know better than to perpetuate those attitudes which have prevented players from properly dealing with concussion symptoms.

*Aikman was discussing the over-regulation of hits on QB's, rather than concussions, specifically. As stated, this article relates to the implications of his statement, not the actual intent.

Why Another December Collapse is Almost Inevitable for the Dallas Cowboys

The New York Giants upset of the Dallas Cowboys has once again prompted speculation that "America's Team" will fade down the stretch.

Of course, even before last week's loss there was reason to believe that things might get a bit cold for the Cowboys this winter.

Not only have they been very inconsistent this season, but they have put together a pretty solid record of folding up their tents as soon as the calendar reaches the final page in recent years.

Over the past decade, their December win-loss record is 15-29. So, it really wasn't (or shouldn't have been) a big shock that they lost to the Giants and looked terrible while doing it.

However, the bigger problem for the Cowboys (and for Wade Philips' job security) is that, with their schedule, even if they do play as well as they have played all season, they could very easily end up with a losing record in December again.

To close out the season, Dallas plays at home against San Diego, on the road against New Orleans and Washington, and finally back home against Philadelphia. Of those teams, the Redskins are the only ones not likely to be a playoff team.

It's not at all inconceivable that the Cowboys could upset the Saints, but more likely than not, Dallas will be yet another victim of the juggernaut from New Orleans.

Provided they play up to their potential, the other three games are ones that they should have a good chance of winning. However, San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won seven straight. Beating the Chargers will be a very tough task.

The dogfight doesn't end there, either. Washington has already proven that they can compete with Dallas during their one point loss two weeks ago and Philly has a three game win streak of their own. Plus, no game between NFC East rivals is ever a given, especially if the Eagles and Cowboys are playing for the division crown in their week 17 matchup.

With one December loss already on the books, Dallas will need to win a least three of their final four games to post a winning record for the month. That, combined with their one game lead over the Eagles, leaves the Cowboys without much room for error the remainder of the season.

Beyond that, even if the Cowboys survive December intact, they still have to face their lack of success in the playoffs since '96. Unless they post a couple wins in the playoffs, those same questions about their late season play will start anew.

The pressure is on for Dallas to finish strong this year and, unfortunately for the Cowboys, their remaining schedule has set them up to fail, yet again.