NFL Week Eight Picks

Last week there were finally some good underdogs for me to pick and they payed off, especially against the spread. Things would have been even better had Brett Favre not turned the ball over twice in the fourth quarter. Both of which were returned for touchdowns, while the Vikings were in scoring position. In a matter of a few series I went from an almost certain cover and a victory on the field to a straight up loss that failed to cover. Plus, I can't help think about what would have happened had the 49ers put Alex Smith in during the second quarter instead of waiting until after half time.What could have been but for a few circumstances.
I ended up 8-5 straight up (winners) and 10-2-1 against the spread. Which leaves with an overall record of 66-36 straight up and 54-47-1 against the spread for the season. I do hate the tie games, but I finally had a breakout week against the bookies and I'm now 7 games over .500 against the spread. And I usually do much better during the second half of the season, once I've got a good sense of how each team is playing. So, look out world, here I come and I'm on a roll now. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Eight NFL Games

Sun, Nov. 1	10:00 AM (PDT)	11:00 AM (MDT)	12:00 PM (CDT)	1:00 PM (EDT)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Houston	Buffalo	3.5	Houston	Buffalo
Chicago	Cleveland	13.0	Chicago	Chicago
Dallas	Seattle	9.5	Dallas	Dallas
Detroit	St. Louis	3.5	Detroit	Detroit
Indianapolis	San Francisco	12.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
New York Jets	Miami	3.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
New York Giants	Philadelphia	1.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Baltimore	Denver	3.5	Denver	Denver
Sun, Nov. 1	1:00 PM (PDT)	2:00 PM (MDT)	3:00 PM (CDT)	4:00 PM (EDT)
Tennessee	Jacksonville	3.0	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
San Diego	Oakland	16.5	San Diego	Oakland
Green Bay	Minnesota	3.0	Minnesota	Minnesota
Arizona	Carolina	10.0	Arizona	Arizona
Mon, Nov. 2	5:30 PM (PDT)	6:30 PM (MDT)	7:30 PM (CDT)	8:30 PM (EDT)
New Orleans	Atlanta	10.0	New Orleans	New Orleans

Teams with byes in week eight: Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington - There is no Sunday Night Game this week

NFL Week Seven Picks

Last week was another of those weeks where I didn't do particularly bad, but I certainly could have done better. The Eagles losing to the Raiders didn't help me at all, although I doubt anyone picked that to happen. Nor did the Jets losing to Buffalo or the Bengals dropping the ball against Houston. However I did take a lot of satisfaction in the fact that the Cardinals and Broncos both won outright as an underdog, which made no sense to me that either one of them was getting points in games I felt they should win. Also, Baltimore, the other team I picked to win as a dog, covered even though they came up short (wide left actually) on the field. I ended being 9-5 straight up and 7-7 against the spread. For the season, that leaves me with a record of 58-31 straight up and 44-45 (that sound you hear is me hitting my head against a wall) against the spread. It seems like all season long the point spreads have been enormous each week. I don't ever recall having so many lines that were more than a touchdown or even double digits every single week. Unfortunately, this week is no different in that respect. Fortunately for me however, there are several underdogs this week that I think have inflated numbers. The one thing that is making me real nervous though is that just about every team I like to win is a visiting team. It's hard to pick against almost every home team and feel good about it. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seven NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 25	10:00 AM (PDT)	11:00 AM (MDT)	12:00 PM (CDT)	1:00 PM (EDT)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Green Bay	Cleveland	9.0	Green Bay	Green Bay
San Diego	Kansas City	4.5	San Diego	San Diego
Indianapolis	St. Louis	13.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Pittsburgh	Minnesota	4.5	Minnesota	Minnesota
New England	Tampa Bay	14.5	New England	New England
Houston	San Francisco	3.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
Sun, Oct. 25	1:00 PM (PDT)	2:00 PM (MDT)	3:00 PM (CDT)	4:00 PM (EDT)
New York Jets	Oakland	6.0	New York Jets	New York Jets
Carolina	Buffalo	7.0	Carolina	Buffalo
Cincinnati	Chicago	1.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Dallas	Atlanta	4.0	Atlanta	Atlanta
New Orleans	Miami	6.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
Sun, Oct. 25	5:20 PM (PDT)	6:20 PM (MDT)	7:20 PM (CDT)	8:20 PM (EDT)
New York Giants	Arizona	7.0	New York Giants	Arizona
Mon, Oct. 26	5:30 PM (PDT)	6:30 PM (MDT)	7:30 PM (CDT)	8:30 PM (EDT)
Philadelphia	Washington	7.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia

Teams with byes in week seven: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee

NFL Week Six Picks

Things started out well last week, but they didn't quite hold up as the games unfolded. In the early games, I won 5 out of 7 games both straight up and against the spread. But then during the late games things went terribly wrong. I ended up losing 2 of 6 both straight up against the spread in the late games. Things didn't get much better on Monday Night when Miami came back late and scored to cost me both straight up and against the number. So, my final tally for the week ended up being an identical 7-7 record both straight up, which is by far the worst I've done yet, and against the spread. Bringing my season record to 49-26 straight up and 37-38 against the spread. Which means I'm still fighting to get above .500 against the bookies. At least this week the spreads aren't quite as ridiculous as they have been the past couple weeks, although there are a few big ones. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Six NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 18	10:00 AM (PST)	11:00 AM (MST)	12:00 PM (CST)	1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against the Spread
Cincinnati	Houston	5.0	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Green Bay	Detroit	13.5	Green Bay	Detroit
Minnesota	Baltimore	3.0	Baltimore	Baltimore
New Orleans	New York Giants	3.0	New Orleans	New Orleans
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	14.0	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Carolina	Tampa Bay	3.5	Carolina	Tampa Bay
Washington	Kansas City	6.5	Washington	Kansas City
Jacksonville	St. Louis	9.5	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Sun, Oct. 18	1:00 PM (PST)	2:00 PM (MST)	3:00 PM (CST)	4:00 PM (EST)
Philadelphia	Oakland	14.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Seattle	Arizona	3.0	Arizona	Arizona
New England	Tennessee	9.5	New England	New England
New York Jets	Buffalo	9.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Sun, Oct. 18	5:20 PM (PST)	6:20 PM (MST)	7:20 PM (CST)	8:20 PM (EST)
Atlanta	Chicago	3.5	Atlanta	Atlanta
Mon, Oct. 19	5:30 PM (PST)	6:30 PM (MST)	7:30 PM (CST)	8:30 PM (EST)
San Diego	Denver	3.5	Denver	Denver

Teams With Byes This Week: Cowboys, Colts, Dolphins, 49ers

NFL Week Five Picks

For the most part, week four was another good week for the NFL. At least in terms of watching the games. Turns out Denver isn't quite as over-rated as I had thought and San Diego still can't win in Pittsburgh. Betting on them wasn't such a walk in the park for me, though. Unlike last week, I had good reasons to be wary of all the giant point spreads because a couple of them reached out and bit me pretty hard. That whole being over the hump with a winning record against the spread thingy kinda went up in flames real quick last week. A few of them I can only blame myself for, though. I definitely should have known better than to hitch my wagon onto Oakland's falling star. They are just god awful on offense and they weren't much better on defense last week either.

Last week, I had a bit of an opposites thing going on and I ended up with a 9-5 record straight up and a rather ugly 5-9 record against the spread. Which leaves me with an overall season record of 42-19 straight up and a 30-31 record against the spread. So, now I'm back to fighting to get back to the positive side of the dial with my picks against the line, but I'm still doing pretty decent picking straight winners. I'm pretty sure I'm due a break out week against these bookies. Maybe this week is the one. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Five NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 11	10:00 am (PST)	11:00 am (MST)	12:00 pm (CST)	1:00 pm (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Buffalo	Cleveland	6.0	Buffalo	Cleveland
Pittsburgh	Detroit	10.5	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Minnesota	St. Louis	9.5	Minnesota	Minnesota
Dallas	Kansas City	8.5	Dallas	Dallas
New York Giants	Oakland	15.5	New York Giants	New York Giants
Philadelphia	Tampa Bay	14.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Carolina	Washington	3.5	Washington	Washington
Baltimore	Cincinnati	8.5	Baltimore	Cincinnati
Sun, Oct. 11	1:00 pm (PST)	2:00 pm (MST)	3:00 pm (CST)	4:00 pm (EST)
San Francisco	Atlanta	2.5	San Francisco	San Francisco
New England	Denver	3.0	New England	New England
Arizona	Houston	5.5	Arizona	Houston
Seattle	Jacksonville	2.0	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Sun, Oct. 11	5:20 pm (PST)	6:20 pm (MST)	7:20 pm (CST)	8:20 pm (EST)
Indianapolis	Tennessee	3.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Mon, Oct. 12	5:35 pm (PST)	6:35 pm (MST)	7:35 pm (CST)	8:35 pm (EST)
New York Jets	Miami	1.5	New York Jets	New York Jets

Teams With Byes This Week: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego

NFL Week Four Picks

Week three was a pretty good week in the NFL. There were a lot of back and forth games and several last second finishes. A certain team that I said might never win again managed to win. Things are really starting to falling into place this season and it's becoming very evident who the good, bad, and ugly teams are.Most of them are the usual candidates in the respective categories, but there are a few surprises thrown in there, too. After being so nervous about all the huge point spreads in week three, I was relieved that almost all of them covered. Of course as the saying goes, just went I thought it was safe to go back into the sportsbook, I look at the spreads this week and they are even more lopsided. Hopefully, I will survive to bet another day again this week.
Last week, I ended up with a 10-6 record both straight up and against the spread. Which leaves me with an overall season record of 33-14 straight up and a 25-22 record against the spread. I finally got over the hump with my picks against the line and there's no looking back now. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Four NFL Games

Sun, Oct. 04	10:00 am (PST)	11:00 am (MST)	12:00 pm (CST)	1:00 pm (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
Chicago	Detroit	10.0	Chicago	Detroit
Cincinnati	Cleveland	6.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Indianapolis	Seattle	10.0	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
New York Giants	Kansas City	9.0	New York Giants	New York Giants
New England	Baltimore	2.0	Baltimore	Baltimore
Washington	Tampa Bay	7.5	Washington	Tampa Bay
Tennessee	Jacksonville	3.0	Tennessee	Tennessee
Houston	Oakland	8.5	Houston	Oakland
Sun, Oct. 04	1:00 pm (PST)	2:00 pm (MST)	3:00 pm (CST)	4:00 pm (EST)
Miami	Buffalo	0.0	Buffalo	Buffalo
New Orleans	New York Jets	7.5	New Orleans	New York Jets
Dallas	Denver	3.0	Dallas	Dallas
San Francisco	St. Louis	9.5	San Francisco	San Francisco
Sun, Oct. 04	5:20 pm (PST)	6:20 pm (MST)	7:20 pm (CST)	5:20 pm (EST)
Pittsburgh	San Diego	6.5	San Diego	San Diego
Sun, Oct. 04	5:35 pm (PST)	6:35 pm (MST)	7:35 pm (CST)	8:35 pm (EST)
Minnesota	Green Bay	4	Minnesota	Minnesota

Teams with a Bye in Week Four: Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, Eagles

NFL Week Three Picks

Last week, Green Bay and Pittsburgh threw me off my mark and then Miami spoiled my party on Monday. I took a bit of a step down with my straight up picks, although I still did pretty decent with a 10-6 record. Against the spread, I once again split it right down the middle with an 8-8 record. So, two weeks into the season my official records are 23-8 straight up and 15-16 against the spread. Things are starting to jell though and I'm back for week three with a much better handle on where things stand in the NFL.

However, there are two things making me sweat this week. One is the number of games with point spreads of a touchdown or more. The other is how hard it is to make a case for the underdog covering in almost all of those games. As a bettor, I love underdogs because the general public tends to bet favorites especially when they are favored big. The sportsbooks often over-compensate for that, which means that you can more often find spreads that are too high than too low. I get very nervous when there are a bunch of large point spreads and I can't justify taking those points. Unfortunately, this is one of those weeks, but I have faith in my picks.

But before we get to that, first let's go through things I liked about week two, the things I didn't like about week two, what I learned during week two, and what I already knew before week two. (READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE ON HUBPAGES)

My Picks for the 2009 Week Three NFL Games

Sun, Sep 27	10:00 am (PST)	11:00 am (MST)	12:00 pm (CST)	1:00 pm (EST)
Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread	Straight Up	Against The Spread
New York Jets	Tennessee	2.5	New York Jets	New York Jets
Houston	Jacksonville	4.0	Houston	Jacksonville
Philadelphia	Kansas City	9.0	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Baltimore	Cleveland	13.5	Baltimore	Cleveland
New York Giants	Tampa Bay	6.5	New York Giants	New York Giants
Washington	Detroit	6.5	Washington	Washington
Green Bay	St. Louis	6.5	Green Bay	Green Bay
Minnesota	San Francisco	7.0	San Francisco	San Francisco
New England	Atlanta	4.0	New England	New England
Sun, Sep 27	1:00 pm (PST)	2:00 pm (MST)	3:00 pm (CST)	4:00 pm (EST)
Chicago	Seattle	2.5	Seattle	Seattle
New Orleans	Buffalo	6.0	New Orleans	Buffalo
San Diego	Miami	5.5	Miami	Miami
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	4.0	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Denver	Oakland	1.5	Denver	Denver
Sun, Sep 27	5:20 pm (PST)	6:20 pm (MST)	7:20 pm (CST)	8:20 pm (EST)
Arizona	Indianapolis	2.5	Indianapolis	Indianapolis

NFL Week Two Picks

Last week I did pretty well picking who would win the games, but not quite so well against the point spread.

Picking without a line, I ended up with a 13-2 record after both of my Monday night picks staged miraculous last minute comebacks to win their games.

Unfortunately, the sportbooks weren't quite so generous to me and I ended up with a 7-8 record against the spread, in large part because both of the Monday night favorites had to stage miraculous last minute comebacks just to win their games.

The math whizzes among you may have noticed that my records only add up to fifteen games while there actually were sixteen games played last week. The answer to that discrepancy is that I didn't post my picks until after the Thursday game between Pittsburgh and Tennessee.

For the (unofficial) record I did pick the Steelers to win the game, but the Titans to cover the spread (you'd have to be crazy not to take six points in a game between those two). However since you would have to take my word for it, I'm not including that in my official picks.

Just a brief explanation of the format, since this is only week two and week one was an overall NFL preview. Each weekly preview will be split into several different sections.

The first section consists of things I saw that I liked during the previous week and how I think they apply to future games.

The second section consists of things I didn't like during the previous week and how I think they apply to future games.

The third section consists of "Things I learned" during the previous week, I.E. something that surprised me or that I had analyzed wrong and am now reevaluating.

The fourth section consists of "Things I Already Knew," I.E. where I brag about something I predicted or observed during a previous week that was born out in the most recent week's games.

The final section is where I make my picks.

Finally, the comments section is where you tell me how right or wrong you think my picks are and why. (READ THE ENTIRE POST ON HUBPAGES)

The Week Two Picks

1. Kansas City -3 vs. Oakland SU: Kansas City ATS: Oakland
2. Tennessee -7 vs. Houston SU: Tennessee ATS: Tennessee
3. New England -3.5 @ NY Jets SU: NY Jets ATS: NY Jets
4. Green Bay -9 vs. Cincinnati SU: Green Bay ATS: Green Bay
5. Minnesota -10 @ Detroit SU: Minnesota ATS: Minnesota
6. New Orleans -1 @ Philadelphia SU: Philadelphia ATS: Philadelphia
7. Atlanta -6 vs. Carolina SU: Atlanta ATS: Carolina
8. Washington -9.5 vs. St. Louis SU: Washington ATS: St, Louis
   
9. Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona SU: Arizona ATS: Arizona
10. San Francisco -1 vs. Seattle SU: San Francisco ATS: San Francisco
11. Buffalo -4.5 vs. Tampa Bay SU: Buffalo ATS: Buffalo
12. Denver -3 vs. Cleveland SU: Denver ATS: Denver
13. San Diego -3 vs. Baltimore SU: Baltimore ATS: Baltimore
14. Pittsburgh -3 @ Chicago SU: Pittsburgh ATS: Pittsburgh
15. Dallas -3 vs. New York Giants SU: New York Giants/ ATS: New York Giants
16. Indianapolis -3 @ Miami SU: Miami ATS: Miami